Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

Diamonds and their mineral inclusions from the A154 South pipe, Diavik Diamond Mine, Northwest territories, Canada

Mineral inclusions recovered from 100 diamonds from the A154 South kimberlite (Diavik Diamond Mines, Central Slave Craton, Canada) indicate largely peridotitic diamond sources (83%), with a minor (12%) eclogitic component. Inclusions of ferropericlase (4%) and diamond in diamond (1%) represent “undetermined” parageneses.

Compared to inclusions in diamonds from the Kaapvaal Craton, overall higher CaO contents (2.6 to 6.0 wt.%) of harzburgitic garnets and lower Mg-numbers (90.6 to 93.6) of olivines indicate diamond formation in a chemically less depleted environment. Peridotitic diamonds at A154 South formed in an exceptionally Zn-rich environment, with olivine inclusions containing more than twice the value (of  52 ppm) established for normal mantle olivine. Harzburgitic garnet inclusions generally have sinusoidal rare earth element (REE_N) patterns, enriched in LREE and depleted in HREE. A single analyzed lherzolitic garnet is re-enriched in middle to heavy REE resulting in a “normal” REE_N pattern. Two of the harzburgitic garnets have “transitional” REE_N patterns, broadly similar to that of the lherzolitic garnet. Eclogitic garnet inclusions have normal REE_N patterns similar to eclogitic garnets worldwide but at lower REE concentrations.

Carbon isotopic values (δ¹³C) range from − 10.5‰ to + 0.7‰, with 94% of diamonds falling between − 6.3‰ and − 4.0‰. Nitrogen concentrations range from below detection (< 10 ppm) to 3800 ppm and aggregation states cover the entire spectrum from poorly aggregated (Type IaA) to fully aggregated (Type IaB). Diamonds without evidence of previous plastic deformation (which may have accelerated nitrogen aggregation) typically have < 25% of their nitrogen in the fully aggregated B-centres. Assuming diamond formation beneath the Central Slave to have occurred in the Archean [Westerlund, K.J., Shirey, S.B., Richardson, S.H., Gurney, J.J., Harris, J.W., 2003b. Re–Os systematics of diamond inclusion sulfides from the Panda kimberlite, Slave craton. VIIIth International Kimberlite Conference, Victoria, Canada, Extended Abstracts, 5p.], such low aggregation states indicate mantle residence at fairly low temperatures (< 1100 °C). Geothermometry based on non-touching inclusion pairs, however, indicates diamond formation at temperatures around 1200 °C. To reconcile inclusion and nitrogen based temperature estimates, cooling by about 100–200 °C shortly after diamond formation is required.     

Enhanced diffusion of Uranium and Thorium linked to crystal plasticity in zircon

The effects of crystal-plasticity on the U-Th-Pb system in zircon is studied by quantitative microstructural and microchemical analysis of a large zircon grain collected from pyroxenite of the Lewisian Complex, Scotland. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping reveals a c.18° variation in crystallographic orientation that comprises both a gradual change in orientation and a series of discrete low-angle (<4°) boundaries. These microstructural data are consistent with crystal-plastic deformation of zircon associated with the formation and migration of dislocations. A heterogeneous pattern of dark cathodoluminescence, with the darkest domains coinciding with low-angle boundaries, mimics the deformation microstructure identified by EBSD. Geochemical data collected using the Sensitive High Resolution Ion MicroProbe (SHRIMP) shows a positive correlation between concentrations of the elements U, Th and Pb (ranging from 20–60 ppm, 30–110 ppm, and 14–36 ppm, respectively) and Th/U ratio (1.13 – 1.8) with the deformation microstructure. The highest measured concentrations and Th/U coincide with low-angle boundaries. This enrichment is interpreted to reflect enhanced bulk diffusion of U and Th due to the formation and migration of high-diffusivity dislocations. ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages for individual analyses show no significant variation across the grain, and define a concordant, combined mean age of 2451 ± 14 Ma. This indicates that the grain was deformed shortly after initial crystallization, most probably during retrograde Inverian metamorphism at amphibolite facies conditions. The elevated Th over U and consistent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages indicates that deformation most likely occurred in the presence of a late-stage magmatic fluid that drove an increase in the Th/U during deformation. The relative enrichment of Th over U implies that Th/U ratio may not always be a robust indicator of crystallization environment. This study provides the first evidence of deformation-related modification of the U-Th system in zircon and has fundamental implications for the application and interpretation of zircon trace element data.     

Integrated models of diamond formation and craton evolution

Two decades of diamond research in southern Africa allow the age, average N content and carbon composition of diamonds, and the dominant paragenesis of their syngenetic silicate and sulfide inclusions to be integrated on a cratonwide scale with a model of craton formation. Individual eclogitic sulfide inclusions in diamonds from the Kimberley area kimberlites, Koffiefontein, Orapa and Jwaneng have Re–Os isotopic ages that range from circa 2.9 Ga to the mid-Proterozoic and display little correspondence with the prominent variations in the P-wave velocity (±1%) that the mantle lithosphere shows at depths within the diamond stability field (150–225 km). Silicate inclusions in diamonds and their host diamond compositions for the above kimberlites, Finsch, Jagersfontein, Roberts Victor, Premier, Venetia, and Letlhakane show a regional relationship to the seismic velocity of the lithosphere. Mantle lithosphere with slower P-wave velocity relative to the craton average correlates with a greater proportion of eclogitic vs. peridotitic silicate inclusions in diamond, a greater incidence of younger Sm–Nd ages of silicate inclusions, a greater proportion of diamonds with lighter C isotopic composition, and a lower percentage of low-N diamonds. The oldest formation ages of diamonds support a model whereby mantle that became part of the continental keel of cratonic nuclei first was created by middle Archean (3.2–3.3 Ga or older) mantle depletion events with high degrees of melting and early harzburgite formation. The predominance of eclogitic sulfide inclusions in the 2.9 Ga age population links late Archean (2.9 Ga) subduction–accretion events to craton stabilization. These events resulted in a widely distributed, late Archean generation of eclogitic diamonds in an amalgamated craton. Subsequent Proterozoic tectonic and magmatic events altered the composition of the continental lithosphere and added new lherzolitic and eclogitic diamonds to the already extensive Archean diamond suite. Similar age/paragenesis systematics are seen for the more limited data sets from the Slave and Siberian cratons.     

The rendition of the Atlantic Warm Pool in the reanalyses

The Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) region, which is comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and parts of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Ocean, is one of the most poorly observed parts of the global oceans. This study compares three ocean reanalyses, namely the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of NCEP, and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) for its AWP variation. The surface temperature in these ocean reanalyses is also compared with that from the Extended Range SST version 3 and Optimally Interpolated SST version 2 SST analyses. In addition we also compare three atmospheric reanalyses: NCEP-NCAR (R1), NCEP-DOE (R2), and CFSR for the associated atmospheric variability with the AWP. The comparison shows that there are important differences in the climatology of the AWP and its interannual variations. There are considerable differences in the subsurface ocean manifestation of the AWP with SODA (CFSR) showing the least (largest) modulation of the subsurface ocean temperatures. The remote teleconnections with the tropical Indian Ocean are also different across the reanalyses. However, all three oceanic reanalyses consistently show the absence of any teleconnection with the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The influence of the AWP on the tropospheric temperature anomalies last for up to a one season lead and it is found to be relatively weak in R1 reanalyses. A simplified SST anomaly equation initially derived for diagnosing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability is adapted for the AWP variations in this study. The analysis of this equation reveals that the main contribution of the SST variation in the AWP region is from the variability of the net heat flux. All three reanalyses consistently show that the role of the ocean advective terms, including that associated with upwelling in the AWP region, is comparatively much smaller. The covariance of the SST tendency in the AWP with the net heat flux is large, with significant contributions from the variations of the surface shortwave and longwave fluxes.     

Net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009

The CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford) ecosystem model has been used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009, with global data inputs from NASA??s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation cover mapping. Net primary production (NPP) flux for atmospheric carbon dioxide has varied slightly from year-to-year, but was predicted to have increased over short multi-year periods in the regions of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, South Asia, Central Africa, and the western Amazon since the year 2000. These CASA results for global NPP were found to be in contrast to other recently published modeling trends for terrestrial NPP with high sensitivity to regional drying patterns. Nonetheless, periodic declines in regional NPP were predicted by CASA for the southern and western Untied States, the southern Amazon, and southern and eastern Africa. NPP in tropical forest zones was examined in greater detail to discover lower annual production values than previously reported in many global models across the tropical rainforest zones, likely due to the enhanced detection of lower production ecosystems replacing primary rainforest.     

An empirical formula for the height of the coastal internal boundary layer

Observations of the height of the daytime coastal internal boundary layer at several sites are used to justify an empirical formula in the Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) model, which states that the boundary-layer slope is 0.1 in the first 2km from the shoreline, and 0.03 therafter.     

Resolution of impact‐related microstructures in lunar zircon: A shock‐deformation mechanism map

Abstract– The microstructures of lunar zircon grains from breccia samples 72215, 73215, 73235, and 76295 collected during the Apollo 17 mission have been characterized via optical microscopy, cathodoluminescence imaging, and electron backscatter diffraction mapping. These zircon grains preserve deformation microstructures that show a wide range in style and complexity. Planar deformation features (PDFs) are documented in lunar zircon for the first time, and occur along {001}, {110}, and {112}, typically with 0.1–25 μm spacing. The widest PDFs associated with {112} contain microtwin lamellae with 65°/<110> misorientation relationships. Deformation bands parallel to {100} planes and irregular low‐angle (<10°) boundaries most commonly have <001> misorientation axes. This geometry is consistent with a dislocation glide system with <100>{010} during dislocation creep. Nonplanar fractures, recrystallized domains with sharp, irregular interfaces, and localized annealing textures along fractures are also observed. No occurrences of reidite were detected. Shock‐deformation microstructures in zircon are explained in terms of elastic anisotropy of zircon. PDFs form along a limited number of specific {hkl} planes that are perpendicular to directions of high Young’s modulus, suggesting that PDFs are likely to be planes of longitudinal lattice damage. Twinned {112} PDFs also contain directions of high shear modulus. A conceptual model is proposed for the development of different deformation microstructures during an impact event. This “shock‐deformation mechanism map” is used to explain the relative timing, conditions, and complexity relationships between impact‐related deformation microstructures in zircon.     

Compound‐specific carbon,nitrogen, and hydrogen isotopic ratios for amino acids in CM and CR chondrites and their use in evaluating potential formation pathways

Abstract– Stable hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen isotopic ratios (δD, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁵N) of organic compounds can reveal information about their origin and formation pathways. Several formation mechanisms and environments have been postulated for the amino acids detected in carbonaceous chondrites. As each proposed mechanism utilizes different precursor molecules, the isotopic signatures of the resulting amino acids may indicate the most likely of these pathways. We have applied gas chromatography with mass spectrometry and combustion isotope ratio mass spectrometry to measure the compound‐specific C, N, and H stable isotopic ratios of amino acids from seven CM and CR carbonaceous chondrites: CM1/2 Allan Hills (ALH) 83100, CM2 Murchison, CM2 Lewis Cliff (LEW) 90500, CM2 Lonewolf Nunataks (LON) 94101, CR2 Graves Nunataks (GRA) 95229, CR2 Elephant Moraine (EET) 92042, and CR3 Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 99177. We compare the isotopic compositions of amino acids in these meteorites with predictions of expected isotopic enrichments from potential formation pathways. We observe trends of decreasing δ¹³C and increasing δD with increasing carbon number in the α‐H, α‐NH₂ amino acids that correspond to predictions made for formation via Strecker‐cyanohydrin synthesis. We also observe light δ¹³C signatures for β‐alanine, which may indicate either formation via Michael addition or via a pathway that forms primarily small, straight‐chain, amine‐terminal amino acids (n‐ω‐amino acids). Higher deuterium enrichments are observed in α‐methyl amino acids, indicating formation of these amino acids or their precursors in cold interstellar or nebular environments. Finally, individual amino acids are more enriched in deuterium in CR chondrites than in CM chondrites, reflecting different parent‐body chemistry.     

Martian Case Study of Multivariate Correlation and Regression with Planetary Datasets

We synthesize multivariate correlation and regression methods to characterize unique relationships among compositional and physical properties of a planetary surface locally, regionally, and globally. Martian data including elemental mass fractions, areal fractions of mineral types, and thermal inertia constitute our case study. We incorporate techniques to address the effects of spatial autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. We also utilize method and fit diagnostics. While the Mars Odyssey and Mars Global Surveyor missions provide the exploratory context in our discussion, our approach is applicable whenever the interrelationships of spatially binned data of continuous-valued planetary attributes are sought. For example, our regional-scale case study reinforces the strength of the spatial correlation among K, Th, and the dominant mineralogic type within northern low albedo regions (surface type 2) of Mars. Recent chemical and mineralogic data from the MESSENGER mission at Mercury and Dawn at Vesta may be analyzed effectively with these hierarchical regression methods to constrain geochemical processes. Likewise, our algorithm could be applied locally with the wide variety of compositional data expected from the MSL mission at Gale Crater in general, and the ChemCam sampling grids in particular.