Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: II. Heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling, and biodiversity

As part of the Canadian contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY), several major international research programs have focused on offshore arctic marine ecosystems. The general goal of these projects was to improve our understanding of how the response of arctic marine ecosystems to climate warming will alter food web structure and ecosystem services provided to Northerners. At least four key findings from these projects relating to arctic heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling and biodiversity have emerged: (1) Contrary to a long-standing paradigm of dormant ecosystems during the long arctic winter, major food web components showed relatively high level of winter activity, well before the spring release of ice algae and subsequent phytoplankton bloom. Such phenological plasticity among key secondary producers like zooplankton may thus narrow the risks of extreme mismatch between primary production and secondary production in an increasingly variable arctic environment. (2) Tight pelagic-benthic coupling and consequent recycling of nutrients at the seafloor characterize specific regions of the Canadian Arctic, such as the North Water polynya and Lancaster Sound. The latter constitute hot spots of benthic ecosystem functioning compared to regions where zooplankton-mediated processes weaken the pelagic-benthic coupling. (3) In contrast with another widely shared assumption of lower biodiversity, arctic marine biodiversity is comparable to that reported off Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Canada, albeit threatened by the potential colonization of subarctic species. (4) The rapid decrease of summer sea-ice cover allows increasing numbers of killer whales to use the Canadian High Arctic as a hunting ground. The stronger presence of this species, bound to become a new apex predator of arctic seas, will likely affect populations of endemic arctic marine mammals such as the narwhal, bowhead, and beluga whales.     

Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.     

Radio imaging of the Subaru/XMM–Newton Deep Field – II. The 37 brightest radio sources

We study the 37 brightest radio sources in the Subaru/ XMM–Newton Deep Field. We have spectroscopic redshifts for 24 of 37 objects and photometric redshifts for the remainder, yielding a median redshift z _med for the whole sample of   z _med≃ 1.1  and a median radio luminosity close to the 'Fanaroff–Riley type I/type II (FR I/FR II)' luminosity divide. Using mid-infrared (mid-IR) ( Spitzer MIPS 24 μm) data we expect to trace nuclear accretion activity, even if it is obscured at optical wavelengths, unless the obscuring column is extreme. Our results suggest that above the FR I/FR II radio luminosity break most of the radio sources are associated with objects that have excess mid-IR emission, only some of which are broad-line objects, although there is one clear low-accretion-rate object with an FR I radio structure. For extended steep-spectrum radio sources, the fraction of objects with mid-IR excess drops dramatically below the FR I/FR II luminosity break, although there exists at least one high-accretion-rate 'radio-quiet' QSO. We have therefore shown that the strong link between radio luminosity (or radio structure) and accretion properties, well known at z ∼ 0.1, persists to z ∼ 1. Investigation of mid-IR and blue excesses shows that they are correlated as predicted by a model in which, when significant accretion exists, a torus of dust absorbs ∼30 per cent of the light, and the dust above and below the torus scatters ≳1 per cent of the light.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

A reconnaissance study of oxygen, hydrogen and strontium isotopes in geochemically diverse lakes, Western Nebraska, USA

Reconnaissance ¹⁸O,, D, and ⁸⁷Sr data for fifteen lakes in the Western Lakes Region of the Sand Hills of Nebraska indicate dynamic hydrologic systems. The rather narrow range of ⁸⁷Sr from lake water (1.1 to 2.1) and groundwater (0.9 to 1.7) indicates that the groundwater is generally unradiogenic. Groundwater residence times and relatively unradiogenic volcanic ash within the dune sediments control the ⁸⁷Sr values. Based on the mutual variations of ¹⁸O and D, the lakes can be divided into three groups. In Group 1, both ¹⁸O and D values increase from spring to fall. The ¹⁸O and D values in Group 2 decreased from spring to fall. Group 3 are ephemeral lakes that went dry some time during 1992. The data and isotopic modeling show that variations in the ratio of evaporation relative to groundwater inflow, local humidity conditions, and the _a has substantial influence on the isotopic composition. In addition, isotopic behavior in ephemeral lakes can be rather unusual because of the changing activities of water and mineral precipitation and redissolution. The annual and interannual isotopic variability of these lakes which is reflected in the paleonvironmental indicators may be the rule rather than the exception in these types of systems.     

A complete sample of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Cap, selected at 38 MHz – III. Further imaging observations and the photometric properties of the sample

Further imaging observations of a sample of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Cap are presented and a number of new identifications are made. Using redshifts from spectroscopic data presented in a companion paper by Lacy et al., the photometric properties of the galaxies in the sample are discussed. It is shown that: (1) out to at least z ≈0.6 radio galaxies are good standard candles irrespective of radio luminosity; (2) for 0.6≲ z ≲1 a large fraction of the sample has magnitudes and colours consistent with a non-evolving giant elliptical, and (3) at higher redshifts, where the R -band samples the rest-frame UV flux, most objects have less UV luminosity than expected if they form their stellar populations at a constant rate from a high redshift to z ∼1 in unobscured star-forming regions (assuming an Einstein–de Sitter cosmology). The consequences of these observations are briefly discussed.     

Mechanisms of mud extrusion on the Mediterranean Ridge Accretionary Complex

 Drilling two mud domes on the Mediterranean Ridge during ODP Leg 160 has demonstrated that the eruption of mud breccia began at least 1.5 Ma ago. An evolution through extrusive building of a cone, followed by successive eruptions of clast-bearing mud debris flows and subsequent subsidence can be deduced for both domes. Results from permeability and shear strength tests, grain size analyses, sedimentary textures, and clast provenance provide clues concerning the mechanism of mud volcanism. The collision of Africa with Eurasia resulted in backthrusting of the evaporite-dominated accretionary wedge against a rigid backstop. This allowed egress of overpressured fluid-rich mud of presumed Messinian age from the décollement, although many of the clasts may have originated from the overlying accretionary wedge.     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.