Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coral recruitment to the reefs of Eilat, Red Sea: temporal and spatial variation, and possible effects of anthropogenic disturbances

The accelerating deterioration of the coral reefs of Eilat has raised debate over the exact causes and how they affect the reefs. The hypothesis of the present study was that a low recruitment rate of reef-building coral species may play an important role in the decline of the Eilat reefs. Our goal was to assess spatial and temporal recruitment patterns in Eilat, focusing on examining the possible impact of human activities. The results of coral recruitment to 10 series of ceramic tiles on metal racks, revealed very low overall recruitment relative to other geographical regions. In addition, we found that recruitment rates and recruit survival were lowest at sites closest to the major eutrophication sources in Eilat. The low recruitment rates may be chronically too low to compensate for the elevated coral mortality rates of recent years. The significant differences between the present study and a similar study carried out during the same period using a different method, emphasize the crucial need for a standardized method for recruitment assessment in coral reefs worldwide.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive

The WFD has introduced an international commitment to assess the ecological status of transitional waters (TWs), within which fish communities are a key biological monitoring component. The Transitional Fish Classification Index (TFCI) outlined in this paper uses 10 ecological measures to analyse fish populations caught from various ecological niches using a variety of gear types within the Thames estuary. These reach and method-specific communities are then compared to a reference population created from a 'healthy' population from TWs of a similar type. The results indicate a progressive downstream increase the quality of fish communities, consistent with previous work; variation between methods can be accounted for by gear selectivity. Overall, the TFCI is an effective communication tool for converting ecological information into an easily understood format for managers, policy makers and the general public.     

Benthic meiofauna community composition at polluted and non-polluted sites in New Zealand intertidal environments

Meiofauna composition was investigated for six field sites, including polluted and non-polluted sites, within two regions (Auckland and Bay of Plenty) during winter (July-August 2004) in the North Island of New Zealand. Physico-chemical parameters were measured during the sampling period and meiofauna distribution and abundance were compared with these measured parameters. Analysis of meiofauna abundance indicated that foraminiferans, nematodes and ostracods were the taxa that contributed to the variability between field sites within the Auckland region. However, no clear taxa dominance was seen in the Bay of Plenty region. Comparison of meiofauna abundance and physico-chemical parameters was done using multivariate analysis (PRIMER). However, no clear relationships between the parameters were observed in any field site in either region. The Shannon-Weiner index of diversity did not show any clear differentiation between polluted and non-polluted field sites. Therefore, from the present study, the taxa or physico-chemical parameters used could not effectively characterise pollution at the investigated field sites.     

The numerical solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation: A review of some basic principles

The simulation of solute transport in rivers is frequently based on numerical models of the Advection-Dispersion Equation. The construction of reliable computational schemes, however, is not necessarily easy. The paper reviews some of the most important issues in this regard, taking the finite volume method as the basis of the simulation, and compares the performance of several types of scheme for a simple case of the transport of a patch of solute along a uniform river. The results illustrate some typical (and well known) deficiencies of explicit schemes and compare the contrasting performance of implicit and semi-Lagrangian versions of the same schemes. It is concluded that the latter have several benefits over the other types of scheme.     

Nearshore bar migration and sediment-induced buoyancy effects

A 1-D General Ocean Turbulence Model that includes the effects of sediment-induced stratification is shown to simulate the observed onshore and offshore migration of a nearshore sandbar. The only two free parameters of the model, the bed reference concentration and the sediment diffusivity, are taken from the literature, rather than tuned to the data used here. The model results suggest that predictions of onshore bar migration, in which wave-induced sediment transport confined to within a few centimeters of the bottom dominates, are not greatly affected by accounting for buoyancy effects. The model results also suggest that both mean flows and waves transport sediment during offshore bar migration, with different components of transport dominating at different cross-shore locations across the bar-trough bathymetry. Neglecting the effects of sediment-induced stratification results in higher model skill during the largest waves, likely because the excess turbulence production simulated by the non-stratified model is counterbalanced by neglected breaking-wave-generated turbulence. Considering both onshore and offshore migration, the model that includes sediment-induced stratification has higher skill than the model without stratification.     

Tectonic influences on ground water quality: insight from complementary methods

A study using multiple techniques provided insight into tectonic influences on ground water systems; the results can help to understand ground water systems in the tectonically active western United States and other parts of the world. Ground water in the San Bernardino Valley (Arizona, United States and Sonora, Mexico) is the main source of water for domestic use, cattle ranching (the primary industry), and the preservation of threatened and endangered species. To improve the understanding of ground water occurrence, movement, and sustainability, an investigation was conducted using a number of complementary methods, including major ion geochemistry, isotope hydrology, analysis of gases dissolved in ground water, aquifer testing, geophysics, and an examination of surface and subsurface geology. By combining information from multiple lines of investigation, a more complete picture of the basin hydrogeology was assembled than would have been possible using fewer methods. The results show that the hydrogeology of the San Bernardino Valley is markedly different than that of its four neighboring basins in the United States. The differences include water quality, chemical evolution, storage, and residence time. The differences result from the locally unique geology of the San Bernardino Valley, which is due to the presence of a magmatically active accommodation zone (a zone separating two regions of normal faults with opposite dips). The geological differences and the resultant hydrological differences between the San Bernardino Valley and its neighboring basins may serve as a model for the distinctive nature of chemical evolution of ground water in other basins with locally distinct tectonic histories.     

Evolution of the variability of surface temperature and vegetation density in the great plains

This study focuses on how the variability of land surface temperature and vegetation density at the SGP ARM-CART site changes over episodic (day to day) and seasonal time scales using AVHRR satellite data. Four drying periods throughout the year are analyzed. Land surface temperature had an erratic relationship with time exhibiting no deterministic pattern from day-to-day or season-to-season. Furthermore, it did not exhibit spatial pattern persistence. On the other hand, vegetation density had a consistent spatial pattern and temporal decay during average length drying periods (less than 7 days) as well as within a season. However, there were distinct differences in the seasonal pattern of variation between winter and growing seasons. In addition, the paper highlights a methodology to quantify the relationships that exist at the land surface between the primary parameter of interest and the controlling variables.