Spin rate distribution of small asteroids

The spin rate distribution of main belt/Mars crossing (MB/MC) asteroids with diameters 3-15 km is uniform in the range from f=1 to 9.5 d⁻¹, and there is an excess of slow rotators with f<1 d⁻¹. The observed distribution appears to be controlled by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. The magnitude of the excess of slow rotators is related to the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess and the rate of spin rate change outside the excess. We estimated a median YORP spin rate change of ≈0.022 d⁻¹/Myr for asteroids in our sample (i.e., a median time in which the spin rate changes by 1 d⁻¹ is ≈45 Myr), thus the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess is ≈110 Myr. The spin rate distribution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with sizes in the range 0.2-3 km (∼5 times smaller in median diameter than the MB/MC asteroids sample) shows a similar excess of slow rotators, but there is also a concentration of NEAs at fast spin rates with f=9-10 d⁻¹. The concentration at fast spin rates is correlated with a narrower distribution of spin rates of primaries of binary systems among NEAs; the difference may be due to the apparently more evolved population of binaries among MB/MC asteroids.     

The value of multiple earthquake missions: the EEFIT L’Aquila Earthquake experience

In November 2012 EEFIT launched its first ever return mission to an earthquake affected site. The L’Aquila Earthquake site was chosen as this is a recent European event of interest to the UK and European earthquake engineering community. The main aims of this return mission were to document the earthquake recovery process and this paper presents an overview of the post-disaster emergency phase and transition to reconstruction in the Aquila area after the earthquake. It takes an earthquake engineering perspective, highlighting areas mainly of interest to the fields of structural/seismic engineering and reconstruction management. Within the paper, reference is made to published literature, but also to data collected in the field during the return mission that would not otherwise have been available. The paper presents some specific observations and lessons learned from the L’Aquila return mission. However, in light of current international efforts in conducting return missions, the paper ends with some reflections on the value that return missions can provide to the field of earthquake engineering in general, based on the EEFIT L’Aquila experience.     

Field calibration of a formula for entrance mixing of river inflows to lakes: Lake Taupo,North Island,New Zealand

Field measurements were used to validate predictions for the initial dilution of negatively buoyant, cold‐water inflows to Lake Taupo, as part of a study to quantify mixing processes associated with the two largest inflows to the lake. The predictions were made using a formulation originally derived for positively buoyant, warm‐water inflows to cooling ponds. The formulation predicts the total dilution of an inflow during its inertia‐dominated phase between its entrance to the lake and the point where buoyancy forces are great enough to cause the inflow to plunge and form a submerged density current. In one of the measured inflows, the inflowing jet was free to entrain from both sides; in the other, entrainment was restricted on one side by attachment of the inflowing jet to the shoreline of a bay just upstream of the plunge point. In the former example, the unmodified coefficients from the cooling pond formulation provided an excellent prediction of initial dilution. In the latter example, entrainment was reduced and different coefficients were derived. In both examples the inflows remained attached to the lake bed throughout their course until their liftoff at depths of 45–55 m to form interflows. The difference between coefficients for the two inflows indicates that the coefficient values should be considered site‐specific. The formulation is not valid for inflows that separate from the bottom of the inflow channel before plunging. The entrance mixing formulation was incorporated in a more general model of lake stratification, DYRESM, which already includes a well‐documented routine for routing underflows down submerged channels on the bed of a lake. Application of the model to the inflows measured in Lake Taupo gave good results for two model outputs that were not involved in the calibration of the entrance mixing formulation, but that are affected by the result of the initial dilution calculation—the temperatures in the river plume after it has plunged, and the insertion depth.     

The isotopic and chemical evolution of Mount St. Helens

Isotopic and major and trace element analysis of nine samples of eruptive products spanning the history of the Mt. St. Helens volcano suggest three different episodes; (1) 40,000–2500 years ago: eruptions of dacite with ε_Nd = +5, ε_Sr = ?10, variable δ¹⁸O,²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ～ 18.76, Ca/Sr ～ 60, Rb/Ba ～ 0.1, La/Yb ～ 18, (2) 2500-1000 years ago: eruptions of basalt, andesite and dacite with ε_Nd = +4 to +8, ε_Sr = ?7 to ?22, variable δ¹⁸O (thought to represent melting of differing mantle-crust reservoirs), ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb= 18.81?18.87, variable Ca/Sr, Rb/Ba, La/Yb and high Zr, (3) 1000 years ago to present day: eruptions of andesite and dacite with ε_Nd = +6, ε_Sr = ?13, δ¹⁸O～6‰, variable²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, Ca/Sr ～ 77, Rb/Ba= 0.1, La/Yb ～ 11. None of the products exhibit Eu anomalies and all are LREE enriched. There is a strong correlation between⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and differentiation indices. These data are interpreted in terms of a mantle heat source melting young crust bearing zircon and garnet, but not feldspar, followed by intrusion of this crustal reservoir by mantle-derived magma which caused further crustal melting and contaminated the crustal magma system with mafic components. Since 1000 years ago all the eruptions have been from the same reservoir which has displayed a much more gradual re-equilibration of Pb isotopic compositions than other components suggesting that Pb is being transported via a fluid phase. The Nd and Sr isotopic compositions lie along the mantle array and suggest that the mantle underneath Mt. St. Helens is not as depleted as MORB sources. There is no indication of seawater involvement in the source region.     

Evidence for inherited Sm−Nd isotopes in granitoid zircons

This study presents evidence to show that, in addition to preserving U–Pb isotope systematics, refractory zircons also preserve, at least in part, an inherited Sm–Nd isotope component. The zircons analyzed during this study were taken from the Strontian granitoid (NW Scotland). The inner intrusion of this composite pluton is known from a previous study to contain substantial U–Pb zircon inheritance, whereas the outer part has only minor inheritance. Zircons from the inner intrusion were found to have significantly lower Nd₄₂₅ values than either their host rock, separated apatite or monazite. It is argued that this isotopic disequilibrium is due to the presence of an inherited Sm–Nd isotope component, rather than being due to a post-crystallization disturbance of the zircons. The preservation of inherted Sm–Nd isotopes within refractory zircons implies that they remain closed systems with respect to the diffusion of Sm and Nd (and presumably the other REE) to temperatures in excess of 700°C. The fact that zircons commonly have high Sm/Nd ratios, relative to sialic crustal material, means that the Nd isotopic evolution of inherited zircons will be very different to that of much of the continental crust.     

Potential mechanistic causes of increased baseflow across northern Eurasia catchments underlain by permafrost

Warming in the Arctic is occurring at twice the rate of the global average, resulting in permafrost thaw and a restructuring of the Arctic hydrologic cycle as indicated by increased stream discharge during low-flow periods. In these cold regions, permafrost thaw is postulated to increase low-flow discharge, or baseflow, through either: (a) localized increases in groundwater storage and discharge to streams due to increased aquifer transmissivity from thickening of the freeze–thaw layer above permafrost known as the active layer or (b) long-term increases in regional groundwater circulation via enhancement of groundwater–surface water interactions due to extensive permafrost loss over decades. While increasing baseflow has been observed throughout northern Eurasia, the precise mechanistic causes remain elusive. In this study, we differentiate between where these two subsurface physical mechanisms of baseflow increase are occurring by performing a baseflow recession analysis using daily streamflow records from 1913 to 2003 for 139 stations in northern Eurasia underlain by varying permafrost areal extents. Results indicate that from 1913 to 2003, the majority of catchments underlain by continuous permafrost have an increasing trend in their recession flow intercepts, a proxy for increasing active layer thickness. Alternatively, the majority of catchments underlain by permafrost types that are less spatially extensive (e.g., discontinuous, sporadic, isolated, or no permafrost) have decreasing trends in their recession flow intercepts, indicating that a potential increase in active layer thickness is not the driving factor of baseflow variations in these catchments. This may indicate that in catchments underlain by continuous permafrost, active layer thickening correlates with increases in baseflow, whereas, in other catchments with less extensive permafrost, increases in baseflow may be caused by wholesale permafrost loss and vertical talik expansion that enhances regional groundwater circulation. The results of this work may inform our understanding of the subsurface mechanisms responsible for the changing Arctic hydrologic cycle.     

The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

The United States’ decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement (pending possible re-engagement under different terms) may have significant ramifications for international climate policy, but the implications of this decision remain contested. This commentary illustrates how comparative analysis of US participation in multilateral environmental agreements can inform predictions and future assessments of the decision. We compare and contrast US non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, focusing on four key areas that may condition the influence of US treaty decisions on international climate policy: (i) global momentum on climate change mitigation; (ii) the possibility of US non-participation giving rise to alternative forms of international collaboration on climate policy; (iii) the timing and circumstances of the US decision to exit; and (iv) the influence of treaty design on countries’ incentives to participate and comply. We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement.

Key policy insights

• Increasing global momentum on mitigation since 1997 means that US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is potentially less damaging than its non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol

• Despite the declining US share of global emissions, greater urgency of deep decarbonization means that the non-participation of a major player, such as the US, remains problematic for global cooperation and achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals

• Differences in the design of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement suggest that US non-participation is more likely to prompt reluctant countries to stay within the Paris framework but reduce levels of ambition and compliance, rather than exit the Agreement altogether

     

The Cost(s) of Geospatial Open Data

The provision of open data by governments at all levels has rapidly increased over recent years. Given that one of the dominant motivations for the provision of open data is to generate ‘value’, both economic and civic, there are valid concerns over the costs incurred in this pursuit. Typically, costs of open data are framed as internal to the data providing government. Building on the strong history of GIScience research on data provision via spatial data infrastructures, this article considers both the direct and indirect costs of open data provision, framing four main areas of indirect costs: citizen participation challenges, uneven provision across geography and user types, subsidy of private sector activities, and the creation of inroads for corporate influence on government. These areas of indirect cost lead to the development of critical questions, including constituency, purpose, enablement, protection, and priorities. These questions are posed as a guide to governments that provide open data in addressing the indirect costs of open data.