Assimilation of thermal emission spectrometer atmospheric data during the Mars Global Surveyor aerobraking period

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has produced an extensive atmospheric data set, beginning during aerobraking and continuing throughout the extended scientific mapping phase. Temperature profiles for the atmosphere below about 40 km, surface temperatures and total dust and water ice opacities, can be retrieved from infrared spectra in nadir viewing mode. This paper describes assimilation of nadir retrievals from the spacecraft aerobraking period, L_S=190°–260°, northern hemisphere autumn to winter, into a Mars general circulation model. The assimilation scheme is able to combine information from temperature and dust optical depth retrievals, making use of a model forecast containing information from the assimilation of earlier observations, to obtain a global, time-dependent analysis. Given sufficient temperature retrievals, the assimilation procedure indicates errors in the a priori dust distribution assumptions even when lacking dust observations; in this case there are relatively cold regions above the poles compared to a model which assumes a horizontally-uniform dust distribution. One major reason for using assimilation techniques is in order to investigate the transient wave behavior on Mars. Whilst the data from the 2-h spacecraft mapping orbit phase is much more suitable for assimilation, even the longer (45–24 h) period aerobraking orbit data contain useful information about the three-dimensional synoptic-scale martian circulation which the assimilation procedure can reconstruct in a consistent way. Assimilations from the period of the Noachis regional dust storm demonstrate that the combined assimilation of temperature and dust retrievals has a beneficial impact on the atmospheric analysis.     

Southern high latitude climate variability in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ¹⁸O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous.     

A bulk cloud parameterization in a Venus General Circulation Model

A condensing cloud parameterization is included in a super-rotating Venus General Circulation Model. A parameterization including condensation, evaporation and sedimentation of mono-modal sulfuric acid cloud particles is described. Saturation vapor pressure of sulfuric acid vapor is used to determine cloud formation through instantaneous condensation and destruction through evaporation, while pressure dependent viscosity of a carbon dioxide atmosphere is used to determine sedimentation rates assuming particles fall at their terminal Stokes velocity. Modifications are described to account for the large range of the Reynolds number seen in the Venus atmosphere.Two GCM experiments initialized with 10 ppm-equivalent of sulfuric acid are integrated for 30 Earth years and the results are discussed with reference to “Y” shaped cloud structures observed on Venus. The GCM is able to produce an analog of the “Y” shaped cloud structure through dynamical processes alone, with contributions from the mean westward wind, the equatorial Kelvin wave, and the mid-latitude/polar Mixed Rossby/Gravity waves. The cloud top height in the GCM decreases from equator to pole and latitudinal gradients of cloud top height are comparable to those observed by Pioneer Venus and Venus Express, and those produced in more complex microphysical models of the sulfur cycle on Venus. Differences between the modeled cloud structures and observations are described and dynamical explanations are suggested for the most prominent differences.     

Comparison of AVHRR measurements of sea surface temperature with surface observations around New Zealand

Multi‐channel Advanced Very‐High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images of sea surface temperature (SST) in the New Zealand region have been archived since 1989. A comparison of these data with conductivity‐temperature‐depth (CTD) and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data shows that the AVHRR temperatures are about 7% too high (when expressed in °C). Once the AVHRR temperatures have been corrected, they measure SST with an uncertainty of about 0.7°C.     

Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation

Drawing on social constructivist approaches to interpreting the generation of knowledge, particularly Stirling’s (Local Environ 4(2):111–135, 1999) schema of incomplete knowledge, this paper looks critically at climate-crop modelling, a research discipline of growing importance within African agricultural adaptation policy. A combination of interviews with climate and crop modellers, a meta-analysis survey of crop modelling conducted as part of the CGIAR’s Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) programme in 2010, and peer-reviewed crop and climate modelling literature are analysed. Using case studies from across the crop model production chain as illustrations it is argued that, whilst increases in investment and growth of the modelling endeavour are undoubtedly improving observational data and reducing ignorance, the future of agriculture remains uncertain and ambiguous. The expansion of methodological options, assumptions about system dynamics, and divergence in model outcomes is increasing the space and need for more deliberative approaches to modelling and policy making. Participatory and deliberative approaches to science-policy are advanced in response. The discussion highlights the problem that, uncertainty and ambiguity become hidden within the growing complexity of conventional climate and crop modelling science, as such, achieving the transparency and accessibility required to democratise climate impact assessments represents a significant challenge. Suggestions are made about how these challenges might be responded to within the climate-crop modelling community.