Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of noble gases in water using a quadrupole mass spectrometer in static mode

A quadrupole-based mass spectrometer used in static mode has been employed to determine noble gas concentrations of water samples by isotope dilution. Water samples are degassed and spiked with minor isotopes of each noble gas. After separation of the various gas components, the isotopic ratios are measured in the mass spectrometer. Because a spike is added to each sample, the recovery of each gas component does not have to be quantitative. Equilibration temperatures are calculated from the gas concentrations, based on noble gas solubility data. An accuracy of ±1°C, from the air equilibration temperature, is attainable for air-saturated water samples prepared under controlled conditions in the laboratory. The method has been applied to groundwaters from the London Basin Chalk aquifer. The noble-gas-derived temperatures are consistent with climatic conditions prevailing at the periods of recharge.     

Environmental controls on clay mineralogy of an Early Jurassic mudrock (Blue Lias Formation,southern England)

We present a dataset including clay mineralogy, gamma-ray spectrometry, organic matter content and magnetic susceptibility of the Hettangian to lowest Sinemurian successions of Dorset and Somerset, southern UK (Blue Lias Formation, Bristol Channel and Wessex basins). In both areas, the clay assemblages comprise predominantly detrital illite, kaolinite and illite/smectite mixed layers. Clays probably originated from the erosion of the Hercynian massifs, the relative proportions of kaolinite and illite being modulated by arid-humid climatic fluctuations. The organic matter (OM) content (types II to IV) ranges up to 12% in both areas. A clear stratigraphical trend in clay mineral assemblages is apparent in Somerset, whereas in Dorset sharp contrasts between adjacent horizons and a greater dilution by carbonate mask the long-term evolution. Correlations between both areas based on similar vertical trends in clay mineral abundance support the suggestion of a hiatus within the angulata Zone of the Dorset succession. As expected, the kaolinite/illite ratio correlates with the Th/K ratio deduced from gamma-ray spectrometry. However, significant departures from the correlation occur in OM-rich intervals, suggesting that Th may be partly adsorbed on to OM particles. Surprisingly, high magnetic susceptibility correlates with abundant kaolinite, not with Fe-rich clays, indicating either that kaolinite is accompanied by a soil-inherited magnetisable phase (possibly iron oxide) or that illite-rich rocks are more strongly diluted by carbonate than are kaolinite-rich strata.     

Robustness of Recommended Farm Plans in England under Climate Change: A Monte Carlo Simulation

A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se.     

Mechanical twinning in diopside Ca(Mg,Fe)Si2O6: Structural mechanism and associated crystal defects

Diopside twins mechanically on two planes, (100) and (001), and the associated macroscopic twinning strains are identical (Raleigh and Talbot, 1967). An analysis based on crystal structural arguments predicts that both twin mechanisms involve shearing of the (100) octahedral layers (containing Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and Fe²⁺ ions) by a magnitude of c/2. Small adjustments or shuffles occur in the adjacent layers containing the [SiO₄]^4? tetrahedral chains. While the (100) twins are conventional with shear parallel to the composition plane, this analysis predicts that (001) twins form by a mechanism closely related to kinking. A polycrystalline diopside specimen was compressed 8% at a temperature of 400° C, a pressure of 16 kilobars, and a compressive strain rate of about 10^?4/s. Transmission electron microscopy on this specimen has revealed four basic lamellar features:

1. (100) mechanical twin lamellae;
2. (100) glide bands containing unit dislocations;
3. (001) twin lamellae;
4. (101) lamellar features, not as yet identified.

The (001) twins often contain remnant (100) lamellae of untwinned host. Twinning dislocations occur in these (100) lamellae and in the (001) twin boundaries with very high densities. Diffraction contrast experiments indicate that the twinning dislocations associated with both twin laws glide on (100) with Burgers vector b=X [001] where X is probably equal to 1/2 on the basis of the structural analysis. Parallels are drawn between mechanical twinning in clinopyroxenes and clinoamphiboles. The exclusive natural occurrence of basal twins in shock-loaded clinopyroxenes and of analogous ( \(\bar 1\) 01) twins in clinoamphiboles is given a simple explanation in terms of the relative difficulty of the “kinking” mechanism as compared to direct glide parallel to the composition plane.     

Naturally precipitating vaterite (μ-CaCO3) spheres: unusual carbonates formed in an extreme environment

Vaterite, a rare hexagonal CaCO₃ polymorph, was identified in precipitates forming at a supraglacial sulfur spring, in Borup Fiord Pass, northern Ellesmere Island, Canadian High Arctic. Vaterite occurs in a precipitate mound along with calcite, gypsum, and native sulfur. The unusual conditions of the site, including an extremely cold climate, supersaturated alkaline waters, and the presence of gypsum, mimics conditions used to grow vaterite in laboratory experiments. Stable isotope data suggest that vaterite may preferentially form during colder periods of the year. Vaterite found at the site is characterized by 2- to 10-μm rounded to spherical shaped particles (comprising smaller 0.5- to 2-μm spheres) as both individuals and in chainlike structures. The spherical habit of vaterite resembles carbonate structures that have been interpreted to be organic; however, δ¹³C values are indicative of an inorganic origin. The thick permafrost, and the extreme cold and dry environment make this site a good terrestrial analog for carbonate precipitates that might be expected at potential deposits associated with water discharge on other planetary bodies.     

Tracer anomaly evolution in the flow field of an isolated eddy

We explore the horizontal stirring of a passive tracer field in the vicinity of an isolated, finite amplitude, quasigeostrophic, β-plane eddy. We consider stirring in the presence of a uniform background gradient of tracer concentration as well as cases in which the tracer anomaly is initially contained within the eddy.This paper reports a survey of phenomenology based upon numerical experiments. We explore the sensitivity of results to physical parameters and to various aspects of the numerical simulation.Under the joint effects of β and of non-linearity, the eddy center migrates. Time dependent effects in a radiated wake provide important stirring mechanisms for the background tracer field. An unexpected, persistent result is a tendency to propel a tendril of tracer westward from near the launch latitude of the eddy. In some cases, the westward penetration of the tendril is even further than the migration of the eddy center.Tracer properties characteristics of the launch site of the eddy tend to be captured and carried with the eddy. However, tracer leaks from the eddy, due to both explicit diffusion-like effects and eddy interaction with background flow features, can result in drawing off of secondary tracer patches.We also calculate trajectories of Lagrangian particles launched in and around the eddy.