Disinfection by-products and ecotoxicity of ballast water after oxidative treatment – Results and experiences from seven years of full-scale testing of ballast water management systems

Since 2005, five different ballast water management systems (BWMSs) based on chlorination treatment have been tested by Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) according to guidelines from the International Maritime Organization (IMO). 25% and >50% of all the tested discharge samples exhibited acute and chronic toxic effects on algae, respectively. In most cases this toxicity was plausibly caused by a high free residual oxidant (FRO) level (>0.08 mg Cl/l). Of the 22 disinfection by-products (DBPs) that were identified in treated water at discharge, four compounds were at times found at concentrations that may pose a risk to the local aquatic environment. However, there seemed to be no clear indication that the measured DBP concentrations contributed to the observed algal toxicity. The addition of methylcellulose instead of lignin in the test water to comply with IMO requirements seemed to limit the formation of DBP.     

Measuring bluff erosion part 2: pairing aerial photographs and terrestrial laser scanning to create a watershed scale sediment budget

Effectively managing and reducing high suspended sediment loads in rivers requires an understanding of the magnitude of major sediment sources as well as erosion and transport processes that deliver excess fine sediments to the channel network. The focus of this research is to determine the magnitude of erosion from tall bluffs, a primary sediment source in the 2880 km² Le Sueur watershed, Minnesota, USA. We coupled analyses of seven decades of aerial photographs with four years of repeat terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to determine erosion rates on bluffs. Together, these datasets provide decadal‐scale retreat rates throughout the entire watershed and high‐resolution geomorphic change detection on a subset of bluffs to both constrain erosion rates and document how environmental conditions affect bluff retreat. Erosion rates from aerial photographs and TLS were extrapolated from 243 and 15 measured bluffs, respectively, to all 480 bluffs in the Le Sueur watershed using multiple techniques to obtain estimates of sediment loading from these features at the watershed‐scale. Despite different spatial and temporal measurement scales, the aerial photograph and TLS estimates yielded similar results for bluff retreat rate and total mass of sediment derived from bluffs, with bluffs in the Le Sueur watershed yielding 135 000 ± 39 000 Mg/yr of fine sediment. Comparing this value to the average annual total suspended solids (TSS) load determined from gauging from 2000 to 2010, we determined that bluffs comprise 57 ± 16% of the total TSS load, making bluffs the single most abundant fine sediment source in the basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gas migration through Opouawe Bank at the Hikurangi margin offshore New Zealand

This study presents 2D seismic reflection data, seismic velocity analysis, as well as geochemical and isotopic porewater compositions from Opouawe Bank on New Zealand’s Hikurangi subduction margin, providing evidence for essentially pure methane gas seepage. The combination of geochemical information and seismic reflection images is an effective way to investigate the nature of gas migration beneath the seafloor, and to distinguish between water advection and gas ascent. The maximum source depth of the methane that migrates to the seep sites on Opouawe Bank is 1,500–2,100 m below seafloor, generated by low-temperature degradation of organic matter via microbial CO₂ reduction. Seismic velocity analysis enabled identifying a zone of gas accumulation underneath the base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS) below the bank. Besides structurally controlled gas migration along conduits, gas migration also takes place along dipping strata across the BGHS. Gas migration on Opouawe Bank is influenced by anticlinal focusing and by several focusing levels within the gas hydrate stability zone.     

Detection of Earth-mass and super-Earth Trojan planets using transit timing variation method

We have carried out an extensive study of the possibility of the detection of Earth-mass and super-Earth Trojan planets using transit timing variation method with the Kepler space telescope. We have considered a system consisting of a transiting Jovian-type planet in a short period orbit, and determined the induced variations in its transit timing due to an Earth-mass/super-Earth Trojan planet. We mapped a large section of the phase space around the 1:1 mean-motion resonance and identified regions corresponding to several other mean-motion resonances where the orbit of the planet would be stable. We calculated transit timing variations (TTVs) for different values of the mass and orbital elements of the transiting and perturbing bodies as well as the mass of central star, and identified orbital configurations of these objects (ranges of their orbital elements and masses) for which the resulted TTVs would be within the range of the variations of the transit timing of Kepler’s planetary candidates. Results of our study indicate that in general, the amplitudes of the TTVs fall within the detectable range of timing precision obtained from the Kepler’s long-cadence data, and depending on the parameters of the system, their magnitudes may become as large as a few hours. The probability of detection is higher for super-Earth Trojans with slightly eccentric orbits around short-period Jovian-type planets with masses slightly smaller than Jupiter. We present the details of our study and discuss the implications of its results.     

Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1?year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs.     

A three-dimensional variational single-Doppler velocity retrieval method with simple conservation equation constraint

Summary In this paper, a new three-dimensional variational analysis scheme capable of retrieving three-dimensional winds from single Doppler observations of convective storms is developed. The method incorporates, in a single cost function, Doppler radar observations, a background field, smoothness and mass continuity constraints, and the residual of reflectivity or radial velocity conservation. By minimizing this cost function, an analysis with the desired fit to these constraints is obtained in a single procedure. In tests with both simulated and real thunderstorm cases, detailed structures of the storms are well retrieved in comparison with reference analysis. Unlike most kinematic retrieval methods, our scheme is capable of directly dealing with data voids. When an analysis background is available, say from a proximity sounding, a wind profiler, or a numerical model forecast, the method naturally blends Doppler radar observations with it. Thus, a smooth transition is obtained between data-rich and data-void areas. These features, among others, are important if the analysis is to be used to initialize storm-scale numerical models or for diagnostic studies of storm structures.     

Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action

This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450?ppm CO₂-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario??in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050??regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs.     

The initiation of ice sheet growth,Milankovitch solar radiation variations,and the 100 ky ice age cycle

Much work has gone into deciphering the causes of the large scale glacial/interglacial variations in the climate system over the last 900 000 years. While variations on the 41 thousand year (ky) and 23 ky time scales seem to be linearly linked to the variations in the distribution of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, Milankovitch solar radiation variations, the causes of the dominant 100 ky cycle in the geologic record are still unknown. One of the aspects of this cycle that is not well understood is how large scale ice sheet growth is initiated. Here we describe the mechanisms by which large scale ice sheet growth may have been initiated by the changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation over the past 160 ky. This is done through the use of a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model that includes a hydrologic cycle which computes precipitation, and a land surface energy balance which determines the net accumulation of snow and ice. Results indicate that the initiation of ice sheet growth is possible during times of extremely low summer solstice solar radiation as a result of a large decrease in ablation during the critical melt season.