Latent Variable Modeling for Integrating Output from Multiple Climate Models

Numerical models of atmosphere–ocean circulation are widely used to understand past climate and to project future climate change. Although the same laws of physics, chemistry, and fluid dynamics govern any general circulation model, each model’s formulations and parameterizations are different, yielding different projections. Notwithstanding, models within an ensemble will have varying degrees of similarity for different outputs of interest. Multi-model ensembles have been used to increase forecast skill by using simple or weighted averages where weights have been obtained by considering factors such as estimated model bias and consensus with other models (Giorgi and Mearns, J. Clim. 15:1141–1158, 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1629–1632, 2003; Tebaldi et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:L24213, 2004, J. Clim. 18:1524–1540, 2005). This paper considers an alternative view of multi-model ensembles. For use with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), multivariate statistical models are employed to characterize modes of similarity within the members of an ensemble. Specifically, we propose a spatially-correlated latent variable model which facilitates the exploration of when, where, and how regional climate models are similar, and what factors best predict observed locations of model convergence.     

Radius and limb topography of Mercury obtained from images acquired during the MESSENGER flybys

Analysis of images obtained by the MESSENGER spacecraft during its three flybys of Mercury yields a new estimate for the planet's mean radius of 2439.25±0.69 km, in agreement with results from Mariner 10 and Earth-based observations, as well as with MESSENGER altimeter and occultation data. The mean equatorial radius and polar radius are identical to within error, suggesting that rotational oblateness is negligible when compared with other sources of topography. This result is consistent with the small gravitational oblateness of the planet. Minor differences in radius obtained at different locations reflect regional variations in topography. Residual topography along three limb profiles has a dynamic range of 7.4 km and a root-mean-square roughness of 0.8 km over hemispherical scales. Following MESSENGER's entry into orbit about Mercury in March 2011, we expect considerable additional improvements to our knowledge of Mercury's size and shape.     

High‐Precision Fe and Mg Isotope Ratios of Silicate Reference Glasses Determined In Situ by Femtosecond LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS and by Solution Nebulisation MC‐ICP‐MS

In this study, a technique for high precision in situ Fe and Mg isotope determinations by femtosecond‐laser ablation‐multi collector‐ICP‐MS (fs‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS) was developed. This technique was employed to determine reference values for a series of common reference glasses that may be used for external standardisation of in situ Fe and Mg isotope determinations in silicates. The analysed glasses are part of the MPI‐DING and United States Geological Survey (USGS) reference glass series, consisting of basaltic (BIR‐1G, BCR‐2G, BHVO‐2G, KL2‐G, ML3B‐G) and komatiitic (GOR128‐G and GOR132‐G) compositions. Their Fe and Mg isotope compositions were determined by in situ fs‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS and by conventional solution nebulisation multi‐collector ICP‐MS. We determined δ⁵⁶Fe values for these glasses ranging between ‐0.04‰ and 0.10‰ (relative to IRMM‐014) and δ²⁶Mg values ranging between ‐0.40‰ and ‐0.15‰ (relative to DSM‐3). Our fs‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS results for both Fe and Mg isotope compositions agreed with solution nebulisation analyses within analytical uncertainties. Furthermore, the results of three USGS reference glasses (BIR‐1G, BHVO‐2G and BCR‐2G) agreed with previous results for powdered and dissolved aliquots of the same reference materials. Measurement reproducibilities of the in situ determinations of δ⁵⁶Fe and δ²⁶Mg values were usually better than 0.12‰ and 0.13‰ (2s), respectively. We further demonstrate that our technique is a suitable tool to resolve isotopic zoning in chemically‐zoned olivine crystals. It may be used for a variety of different applications on isotopically‐zoned minerals, e.g., in magmatic or metamorphic rocks or meteorites, to unravel their formation or cooling rates.     

Chromium oxidation by manganese (hydr)oxides in a California aquifer

There are increasing concerns with elevated levels of Cr(VI) in the environment because it is a strong oxidant, corrosive, and carcinogenic. The concerns extend to the presence of Cr(VI) in many aquifers in California and elsewhere, where relatively high levels have been attributed to both industrial pollution and natural processes. The authors have, therefore, determined if natural redox processes contribute to the presence of high Cr(VI) concentrations (6–36 μg L⁻¹) in an aquifer in central California relative to non-detectable concentrations (<0.1 μg L⁻¹) in an adjacent aquifer. Specifically, the distribution and the redox speciation of dissolved (<0.45 μm) Cr have been compared with those of particulate Mn and Fe oxy-hydroxides in sediments, using X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Mn and Fe L-edges. The analyses show a correlation between the presence of dissolved Cr(VI) and Mn (hydr)oxide minerals, which are the only common, naturally occurring minerals known to oxidize Cr(III) in laboratory experiments. This covariance substantiates the results of those experiments and previous field studies that indicate natural oxidation mechanisms might account for the relatively high levels of Cr(VI) in the study site, as well as for elevated concentrations in other aquifers with similar biogeochemical conditions.     

Calcium promotes cadmium elimination as vaterite grains by tobacco trichomes

In tobacco plants, elimination of Zn and Cd via the production of Ca-containing grains at the top of leaf hairs, called trichomes, is a potent detoxification mechanism. This study examines how Cd is incorporated in these biominerals, and how calcium growth supplement modifies their nature. Scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis (SEM-EDX), microfocused X-ray diffraction (μ-XRD), and microfocused X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) spectroscopy were used to image the morphology of the grains, identify the crystallized mineral phases, and speciate Cd, respectively. The mineralogy of the grains and chemical form of Cd varied with the amount of Ca. When tobacco plants were grown in a nutrient solution containing 25 μM Cd and low Ca supplement (Ca/Cd = 11 mol ratio), most of the grains were oblong-shaped and low-Cd-substituted calcite. When exposed to the same amount of Cd and high Ca supplement (Ca/Cd = 131 mol ratio), grains were more abundant and diverse in compositions, and in total more Cd was eliminated. Most grains in the high Ca/Cd experiment were round-shaped and composed predominantly of Cd-substituted vaterite, a usually metastable calcium carbonate polymorph, and subordinate calcite. Calcium oxalate and a Ca amorphous phase were detected occasionally in the two treatments, but were devoid of Cd. The biomineralization of cadmium and implications of results for Cd exposure of smokers and phytoremediation are discussed.     

Simulations of accidental coal immersion

Coal is currently becoming an increasingly interesting fossil energy resource and that is the reason why its maritime transport, and hence the risk of collier accidents, increase. In this work, the environmental impact of an accidental coal immersion at sea is studied: the physicochemical effects are estimated using innovative experimental setups – a laboratory seawater canal called “polludrome” is used to evaluate the behaviour of coal particles submitted to a seawater flow, and a specifically designed tub is used to study the physicochemical consequences induced when coal is introduced into continuously renewed seawater. When coal is introduced into seawater, the most easily visible consequences are physical: fine coal particles reduce the daylight penetration up to 100% and move along with the flow, and coal chunks accumulate on the floor. Chemical effects are also measured: humic matters are dissolved from coal into seawater (up to 2 mg L⁻¹), but no release of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons is evidenced. Some inorganic compounds are dissolved, among which manganese, whose concentrations can reach 1 μg L⁻¹. Fortunately, the results show that the environmental impact of this type of accident would remain limited.     

Determination of particulate organic carbon (POC) in seawater: The relative methodological importance of artificial gains and losses in two glass-fiber-filter-based techniques

Particulate matter in aquatic systems is an important vehicle for the transport of particulate organic carbon (POC). Its accurate measurement is of central importance for the understanding of marine carbon cycling. Previous work has shown that GF/F-filter-based bottle-sample-derived concentration estimates of POC are generally close to or higher than large-volume in-situ-pump-derived values (and in some rare cases in subzero waters are up to two orders of magnitude higher). To further investigate this phenomenon, water samples from the surface and mid-water Northeast Atlantic and the Baltic Sea were analyzed. Our data support a bias of POC concentration estimates caused by adsorption of nitrogen-rich dissolved organic material onto GF/F filters. For surface-ocean samples the mass per unit area of exposed filter and composition of adsorbed material depended on the filtered volume. Amounts of adsorbed OC were enhanced in the surface ocean (typically 0.5 μmol cm^− 2 of exposed filter) as compared to the deep ocean (typically 0.2 μmol cm^− 2 of exposed filter). These dependencies should be taken into account for future POC methodologies. Bottle/pump differences of samples that were not corrected for adsorption were higher in the deep ocean than in the surface ocean. This discrepancy increased in summer. It is shown that POC concentration estimates that were not corrected for adsorption depend not only on the filtered volume, true POC concentration and mass of adsorbed OC, but also on the filter area. However, in all cases we studied, correction for adsorption was important, but not sufficient, to explain bottle/pump differences. Artificial formation of filterable particles and/or processes leading to filterable material being lost from and/or missed by sample-processing procedures must be considered. It can be deduced that the maximum amounts of POC and particulate organic nitrogen (PON) that can be artificially formed per liter of filtered ocean water are  3–4 μM OC (5–10% of dissolved OC) and  0.2–0.5 μM ON (2–10% of dissolved ON), respectively. The relative sensitivities of bottle and pump procedures, and of surface- and deep-ocean material, to artificial particle formation and the missing/losing of material are evaluated. As present procedures do not exist to correct for all possible biasing effects due to artificial particle formation and/or miss/loss of filterable material, uncertainties of filtration-based estimates of POC concentrations need further testing. The challenge now is to further constrain the magnitude of the biasing effects that add to the adsorption effect to reduce the uncertainties of estimates of POC concentrations, inventories and fluxes in the ocean.     

Results from the first ballast water sampling study in the Mediterranean Sea - the Port of Koper study

The ongoing transfer of harmful organisms by shipping, especially via ballast water transport, may result in a change of biodiversity, alteration of ecosystems, negative impacts on human health and economic loss. Species introductions which cause irreversible consequences to receiving environments and economies call for particular attention. One critical issue is a need to evaluate the quantities and processes of species introductions. Consequently ballast water was sampled on 15 ships calling at the Port of Koper, Slovenia. This was the first ballast water sampling study in the Mediterranean Sea. This paper summarises the sampling results. Samples were analysed for all types of aquatic organisms including bacteria. The results may be considered as background information for an initial risk assessment of future species introductions - an important tool for the implementation of ballast water management measures.     

Geology of Mars after the first 40 years of exploration

The knowledge of Martian geology has increased enormously in the last 40 yr. Several missions orbiting or roving Mars have revolutionized our understanding of its evolution and geological features, which in several ways are similar to Earth, but are extremely different in many respects. The impressive dichotomy between the two Martian hemispheres is most likely linked to its impact cratering history, rather than internal dynamics such as on Earth. Mars' volcanism has been extensive, very long-lived and rather constant in its setting. Water was available in large quantities in the distant past of Mars, when a magnetic field and more vigorous tectonics were active.Exogenic forces have been shaping Martian landscapes and have led to a plethora of landscapes shaped by wind, water and ice. Mars' dynamical behavior continues, with its climatic variation affecting climate and geology until very recent times. This paper tries to summarize major highlights in Mars' Geology, and points to deeper and more extensive sources of important scientific contributions and future exploration.