The 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Tsunami: Simulations Based on the First Focal Mechanism Solutions and Implications on Tsunami Early Warning Strategies

The tsunamigenic earthquake (Mw?=?8.1) that occurred on 29 September 2009 at 17:48 UTC offshore of the Samoa archipelago east of the Tonga trench represents an example of the so-called ??outer-rise?? earthquakes. The areas most affected were the south coasts of Western and American Samoa, where almost 200 people were killed and run-up heights were measured in excess of 5?m at several locations along the coast. Moreover, tide gauge records showed a maximum peak-to-peak height of about 3.5?m near Pago Pago (American Samoa) and of 1.5?m offshore of Apia (Western Samoa). In this work, different fault models based on the focal mechanism solutions proposed by Global CMT and by USGS immediately after the 2009 Samoan earthquake are tested by comparing the near-field recorded signals (three offshore DART buoys and two coastal tide gauges) and the synthetic signals provided by the numerical simulations. The analysis points out that there are lights and shadows, in the sense that none of the computed tsunamis agrees satisfactorily with all the considered signals, although some of them reproduce some of the records quite well. This ??partial agreement?? and ??partial disagreement?? are analysed in the perspective of tsunami forecast and of Tsunami Early Warning System strategy.     

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.     

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.     

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.

     

Roughness effect on the correction factor of surface velocity for rill flows

Flow velocity is one of the most important hydrodynamic variables for both channelized (rill and gullies) and interrill erosive phenomena. The dye tracer technique to measure surface flow velocity V_s is based on the measurement of the travel time of a tracer needed to cover a known distance. The measured V_s must be corrected to obtain the mean flow velocity V using a factor α_v = V/V_s which is generally empirically deduced. The V_s measurement can be influenced by the method applied to time the travel of the dye-tracer and α_v can vary in different flow conditions. Experiments were performed by a fixed bed small flume simulating a rill channel for two roughness conditions (sieved soil, gravel). The comparison between a chronometer-based (CB) and video-based (VB) technique to measure V_s was carried out. For each slope-discharge combination, 20 measurements of V_s, characterized by a sample mean V_m, were carried out. For both techniques, the frequency distributions of V_s/V_m resulted independent of slope and discharge. For a given technique, all measurements resulted normally distributed, with a mean equal to one, and featured by a low variability. Therefore, V_m was considered representative of surface flow velocity. Regardless of roughness, the V_m values obtained by the two techniques were very close and characterized by a good measurement precision. The developed analysis on α_v highlighted that it is not correlated with Reynolds number for turbulent flow regime. Moreover, α_v is correlated neither with the Froude number nor with channel slope. However, the analysis of the empirical frequency distributions of the correction factor demonstrated a slope effect. For each technique (CB, VB)-roughness (soil, gravel) combination, a constant correction factor was statistically representative even if resulted in less accurate V estimations compared to those yielded by the slope-specific correction factor.     

The 3 June 1994 Java Tsunami: A Post-Event Survey of the Coastal Effects

The paper is a report of the field campaign undertaken by an international team (Italian, French and Indonesian) a few weeks after the occurrence of a tsunami invading the south-eastern coast of Java (Indonesia) and it complements the results of a concurrent field survey by Asian and USA researchers. The tsunamigenic earthquake occurred on 3 of June 1994 in the Indian Ocean about 200 km south of Java. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in some coastal villages. The main purpose of the survey was to measure the inundation and the runup values as well as to ascertain the possible morphological changes caused by the wave attacks. Attention was particularly focussed on the most affected districts, that is Lumajang, Jember and Banyuwangi in Java, although also the districts of Negera, Tebanan and Denpasar in Bali were examined. The most severe damage was observed in the Banyuwangi district, where the villages of Rajekwesi, Pancer and Lampon were almost completely levelled by the violent waves. Most places were hit by three significant waves with documented wave height often exceeding 5 m. The maximum runup value (9.50 m) was measured at Rajekwesi, where also the most impressive erosion phenomena could be found. In contrast, only in one place of the neighbouring island of Bali was there a slight tsunami, the rest of the island being practically unaffected.     

The circumnuclear X-ray reflectors in NGC 1068 and the Circinus galaxy

The ASCA and BeppoSAX spectra of the Circinus galaxy and NGC 1068 are analysed and compared with photoionization models based on cloudy . In the case of Circinus, a single, mildly ionized reflector can account for the line spectrum, while in NGC 1068 at least three different reflectors (with different ionization states) are needed. We suggest that the reflector in Circinus and the low ionized one in NGC 1068 are the inner and visible part of the material responsible for the X-ray absorption. With this assumption, we estimate for the inner radius of the absorber a value of 0.2 pc for Circinus and of a few parsecs for NGC 1068.