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94.
Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region. 相似文献
95.
In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR. 相似文献
96.
Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming. 相似文献
97.
Manfred Baer Nicolas Deichmann Jochen Braunmiller John Clinton Stephan Husen Donat Fäh Domenico Giardini Philipp Kästli Urs Kradolfer Stefan Wiemer 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2007,100(3):517-528
This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during
2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration.
Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced
artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with M
L
≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the
previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events
(M
L
3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (M
L
3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (M
L
3.5), between the Engadin and Val Müstair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the M
L
4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005.
Editorial handling: Stefan Bucher 相似文献
98.
The seismic response of a multi‐span continuous bridge isolated with novel superelastic‐friction base isolator (S‐FBI) is investigated under near‐field earthquakes. The isolation system consists of a flat steel‐Teflon sliding bearing and a superelastic NiTi shape memory alloy (SMA) device. The key design parameters of an S‐FBI system are the natural period of the isolated bridge, the yielding displacement of the SMA device, and the friction coefficient of the sliding bearings. The goal of this study is to obtain optimal values for each design parameter by performing sensitivity analysis of a bridge isolated by an S‐FBI system. First, a three‐span continuous bridge is modeled as two‐degrees‐of‐freedom with the S‐FBI system. A neuro‐fuzzy model is used to capture rate‐ and temperature‐dependent nonlinear behavior of the SMA device. Then, a set of nonlinear time history analyses of the isolated bridge is performed. The variation of the peak response quantities of interest is shown as a function of design parameters of the S‐FBI system and the optimal values for each parameter are evaluated. Next, in order to assess the effectiveness of the S‐FBI system, the response of the bridge isolated by the S‐FBI system is compared with the response of the non‐isolated bridge and the same bridge isolated by pure‐friction (P‐F) sliding isolation system. Finally, the influence of temperature variations on the performance of the S‐FBI system is evaluated. The results show that the optimum design of a bridge with the S‐FBI system can be achieved by a judicious specification of design parameters. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
99.
Douglas P. Looze Markus Kasper Stefan Hippler Orhan Beker Robert Weiss 《Experimental Astronomy》2003,15(2):67-88
This paper develops a compensation algorithm based on Linear–Quadratic–Gaussian (LQG) control system design whose parameters
are determined (in part) by a model of the atmosphere. The model for the atmosphere is based on the open-loop statistics of
the atmosphere as observed by the wavefront sensor, and is identified from these using an auto-regressive, moving average
(ARMA) model. The (LQG) control design is compared with an existing compensation algorithm for a simulation developed at ESO
that represents the operation of MACAO adaptive optics system on the 8.2 m telescopes at Paranal, Chile.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
100.
Stefan Bernstein Peter B Kelemen Christian Tegner Mark D Kurz Jurek Blusztajn C.Kent Brooks 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1998,160(3-4):845-862
Mafic and ultramafic intrusions in East Greenland adjacent to the offshore Greenland–Iceland ridge were emplaced 5–9 My after continental breakup at 55 Ma [1]. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry are reported for cumulus clinopyroxene from these intrusions, and the data are used to estimate REE abundance in equilibrium melts using available partitioning data. Estimated equilibrium melts from intrusions have strongly fractionated REE patterns with Nd/Dy(N) in the range 2 to 5.6 and Yb/Dy(N) 0.55 to 0.92, similar to values for coeval basalts. These melts have markedly higher Nd/Dy(N) than earlier breakup related flood basalts. The moderately low Yb/Dy(N) for the post-breakup volcanism is indicative of residual garnet in the source, while their high Nd/Dy(N) ratios can best be explained by aggregating low degree melts from a light-REE-enriched garnet- and spinel-bearing mantle source. We also report He, Sr, and Nd isotopic data for the intrusions. The highest 3He/4He ratios (>10 R/Ra) are found in the samples whose REE data reflect the largest proportion of melts from a garnet-bearing source, and having Sr and Nd isotopic compositions identical with the radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotope end of the Iceland compositional field. There is no indication of a MORB-type mantle in the source of the intrusions. We postulate that post-breakup volcanism along the East Greenland coastline reflects the increasing proximity of the mantle plume to the East Greenland continental margin. The low degree of melting at high mean pressure inferred for the parental melts for the intrusions may reflect re-thickening of the lithosphere, which in turn was caused by the vigorous volcanism during breakup, with accompanying depletion of upper mantle and underplating of the crust at the continental margin. 相似文献