Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.The research reported herein was supported in part by the IC² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, and in part by National Science Foundation Grant Number SES-8411702. However, the opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring organizations. We appreciate the advice and comments of Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert S. Chen, Judith Jacobsen, and Richard C. Rockwell on earlier versions of this paper.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Magnetostratieraphy of the Red Beds in the Hengyang Basin

This paper discusses the Cretaceous-Tertiary magnetic polarity sequence of the the Hengyang Basin on the basis of magnetostratigraphic study. The age of each stratigraphic unit has been determined with the magnetic polarity time scale combined with 39Ar/40Ar dating, thus providing evidence for determining the geological ages of different formations. The authors assign the age of the Dongjing Formation of the Hengyang Basin to Early Cretaceous, the Shenhuangshan Formation to Early-Late Cretaceous, the Daijiaping Formation to Late Cretaceous, and the Dongtang and Xialiushi formations to Palaeocene.     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

Discovery of A-type Granite Zone and Its Geodynamic Significance in the Western Kunlun Mts., China

l. IntroductionGranite distributes widely in western KunlunMts. Many researches have been conducted byscientists (Wang Yuzhen et.al., l987; Zhang Yuquanet.al., l989, Fang Xilian et.al., I990, Jiang Chunfaet.al., 1992; Pan Yusheng, l992, Xu Ronghua et.al.,l 994; Jing Daogui et.al., l996, Zhang Yuquan et.al.,l998). But all of the researches have been donealong Sino-Pakistan road and Xinjiang-Tibet roadt"ith fOcus on isotopic dating of the intrusion andconducted a few on origin and tect…     

基于SICAD／Open空间拓扑结构的地籍空间实体图形变更处理

简要介绍了一种GIS平台SICAD/Open，详细描述了SICAD/Open空间拓扑结构，给出了基于SICAD/Open空间拓扑结构的地籍空间实体图形变更处理方法，为在地籍信息系统中利用地理信息系统技术实现地籍空间实体图形变更提供了一种切实可行的操作方法。文中描述的处理方法已成功应用于上海市地籍管理信息系统中。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF VEGETATION COVER,ROUGHNESS AND ALBEDO DISTRIBUTION OVER CHINA

To build land surface dataset for climate model,with application of remote sensing techniqueas well as the Geographic Information System(GIS),the data of surface type,roughness andalbedo over China in 1997 were retrieved,resolutions being 10 km×10 km.Based on these data,an analysis is conducted on the geographic distributions and seasonal variations of surfacevegetation cover and roughness as well as albedo over China.Results show that surface vegetationcover is mainly located to the south of Yangtze River,in Southwest and Northeast China andsparse vegetation cover is in the Northwest.The variation of land surface cover affects thevariations of land surface roughness and albedo.High albedo occurred in the north of XinjiangAutonomous Region,the north of Northeast China and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in winter,incorrespondence with the location of snow cover.For most part of China,surface roughness decreases and albedo increases in winter,while theroughness increases and the albedo decreases in summer,which could mainly result from landsurface cover(snow cover and vegetation cover)and soil moisture changes.This shows that thegeographic distribution and seasonal variation of the albedo are almost opposite to those of theroughness,in agreement with theoretical results.Temporally,the amplitude of surface roughnesschange is quite small in comparison with the roughness itself.     

油、水、干层的地球化学识别

本文介绍一种判断油、水、干层的地球化学方法，根据储层样品中有机抽提的的含量和组成特征，结合油层物性，地层测试和试油资料编制织识别油、水，干层的图版，提出判别油、水、干层的地质／地球化学指标，确定油层的地球化学参数的下限，并运用此方法对松辽盆地新站油田主要油层分布段的油、水、干层进行判别。根据试油资料验证表明，地球化学判断结果比传统的地质录井及地球物理测井资料判断结果更符合实际情况。     

Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

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Preliminary Study on Two Newly-Generated Seismotectonic Zones in North and Southwest China

In previous seismotectonic studies,the emphasis was placed on the inherited active fault zones.In the recent tectonic stage that essentially keeps in step with the current regional geologic environment and the stress field,however,there are also some newly generated fault zones.By studying the seismicity in North and Southwest China,it has been known that the NE-trending Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian and NW-trending Tengchong-Gengma-Lancang seismic zones are just two newly generated fault zones.As distinguished from the inherited fault zones,they are called the newly generated seismotectonic zones.This paper deals with the existence of these two seismogenic zones from their seismicity and geological structures,gives a preliminary analysis of their characteristics,and shows their significance.     

地震序列的有序度及多分形特征

为研究不同类型地震序列物理过程的差异，我们研究了１５１例国内外的地震序列主震后早期的地震有序度和多分形特征的差异。主要结果为：能量分配的不同是序列主震后早期的主要分类标志。地震序列的能量熵值可作为序列早期分类的定量指标．序列蠕变熵值的变化速率可作为后续强余震的预测依据之一．对于主震型序列，由于介质的均匀性相对较好，余震破裂可以充分扩展，子系统作用顺利，从而导致能量分配比较集中（Ｑｃ值较低），时间结构的多重分形Ｄｑ变化幅度较大。反之，对于震群序列，由于震源区存在多个障碍体，使得子系统的作用受到一定程度的阻碍，破裂不能顺利扩展，因此，可能会造成能量分配比例失调，表现为大事件增多，Ｑｃ值较高，余震过程相对拉长，时间多重分形Ｄｑ差值变小．由此可见，不同类型的地震序列在主震后早期能量分配的集中程度的差异以及时间多重分形跨度的变化，很可能反映了余震区破裂扩展的充分程度。