A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Exact Delaunay normalization of the perturbed Keplerian Hamiltonian with tesseral harmonics

A novel approach for the exact Delaunay normalization of the perturbed Keplerian Hamiltonian with tesseral and sectorial spherical harmonics is presented in this work. It is shown that the exact solution for the Delaunay normalization can be reduced to quadratures by the application of Deprit’s Lie-transform-based perturbation method. Two different series representations of the quadratures, one in powers of the eccentricity and the other in powers of the ratio of the Earth’s angular velocity to the satellite’s mean motion, are derived. The latter series representation produces expressions for the short-period variations that are similar to those obtained from the conventional method of relegation. Alternatively, the quadratures can be evaluated numerically, resulting in more compact expressions for the short-period variations that are valid for an elliptic orbit with an arbitrary value of the eccentricity. Using the proposed methodology for the Delaunay normalization, generalized expressions for the short-period variations of the equinoctial orbital elements, valid for an arbitrary tesseral or sectorial harmonic, are derived. The result is a compact unified artificial satellite theory for the sub-synchronous and super-synchronous orbit regimes, which is nonsingular for the resonant orbits, and is closed-form in the eccentricity as well. The accuracy of the proposed theory is validated by comparison with numerical orbit propagations.     

An accentuated “hot blob” over Vidarbha,India, during the pre-monsoon season

A “hot blob”, distinct hot region, is identified over Vidarbha in the south-central parts of the Indian subcontinent during the pre-monsoon season from the analysis of gridded surface air maximum temperature data from India Meteorological Department for the period 1951–2019. Spatial distribution and frequencies of temperatures?>?40 °C and?>?42 °C establish the hot blob over Vidarbha region. A similar analysis of simulated maximum temperatures from the NEX-GDDP substantiates the revelation of the “hot blob” over Vidarbha. Further, analysis of the wind circulation at 850 hPa over South Asia region indicates that the “COL” region between the two seasonal high-pressure systems over the Indian Ocean seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea promotes accumulation of heat over Vidarbha. Further, horizontal temperature convergence complimented by strong local heating of the black soil aids and abets the sustenance of the “hot blob”. This “hot blob” region is observed to be hotter as well as having higher frequencies of hot days than the north-west desert Rajasthan region and assumes importance as its modulation causes heatwaves over the south-east coastal regions. This study establishes the presence of the hottest region over Vidarbha in south-central parts, paradoxically hotter than the desert north-west region of India.

     

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R _H in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R _H is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R _H are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978–2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978–2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R _H is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.     

Estimation of uranium from multichannel spectra in airborne gamma ray spectrometry using 1.12 MeV and 1.76 MeV photopeaks of 214Bi — An application to Cuddapah Basin

Present study examines the utility of gamma rays of energies 1.12 MeV and 1.76 MeV of uranium in estimation of uranium in airborne gamma ray spectrometric survey (AGRS) in comparison to the conventional 1.76 MeV alone used world wide. As a case study, the AGRS data of northern part of Cuddapah Basin is considered. Multi-channel processing is applied on this dataset to reduce the spectral noise and use of combined 1.12 MeV and 1.76 MeV has reduced the Poisson’s related statistical error. Uranium is estimated using above two energies individually and in combination, using multi-channel processing followed by standard corrections procedure. Result indicates that a combination of both energies has given best estimation due to a reduction in overall noise which helped in demarcating geological entities and litho-contacts. This indicates the efficacy of this technique which improved the radio-geochemistry of study area in understanding the radio-elemental variation.     

Matched block bootstrap for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series

A nonparametric method for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series is presented. It is based on the idea of rank matching, for simulating univariate time series with strong and/or long‐range dependence. The rank matching rule suggests concatenating with higher likelihood those blocks that match at their ends. In the proposed method, termed ‘multiseason matched block bootstrap’, nonoverlapping within‐year blocks of hydrologic data (formed from the observed time series) are conditionally resampled using the rank matching rule. The effectiveness of the method in recovering various statistical attributes, including the dependence structure from finite samples generated from a known population, is demonstrated through a two‐level hypothetical Monte Carlo simulation experiment. The method offers enough flexibility to the modeller and is shown to be appropriate for modelling hydrologic data that display strong dependence, nonlinearity and/or multimodality in the time series depicting the hydrologic process. The method is shown to be more efficient than the nonparametric ‘k‐nearest neighbor bootstrap’ method in simulating the monthly streamflows that exhibit a complex dependence structure and bimodal marginal probability density. Even with short block sizes, this bootstrap method is able to predict the drought characteristics reasonably accurately. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of Ground Water Potential Zones Using Remote Sensing Data -A Case Study of Gaimukh Watershed, Bhandara District, Maharashtra

In the present study efforts have been made to evaluate ground water potential zones for ground water targeting using IRS-IC LISS-II1 geo-coded data on 1:50,000 scale. The drainage, geology, geomorpholgoy and lineament information has been generated and integrated to evaluate hydro-geomorphological characteristics of the Gairnukh watershed, Bhandara district, Maharashtra for delineation of ground water potential zones. The analysis reveals that the deep valley fills with thick alluvium have excellent, shallow valley tills and deeply weathered pediplains with thin alluvium have very good and moderately weathered pediplains in the geological formations of Tirodi Gneiss and Sausar Groups have god ground water potential and these units are highly favourable for ground water exploration and development. Shallow weathered pediments in geological formations of Tirodi Gnesis and Sausar Groups are marked under moderate ground water potential zone. Shallow weathered pediplains in geological formations of Tiridi Gneiss and Sausor Groups are grouped under limited ground water potential category, except along the fractures/lineaments. Structural hills in geological formations of Tirodi Gneiss and Sausar Groups have poor ground water prospects. Inselbergs and Linear ridges in geological formations of Tirodi Gneiss are grouped under very poor ground water prospects zone. The good inter-relationship was found among the geological units, geomorphological units, lineament density, hydro-geomorphological zones and ground water yield data.     

Plate motion predictability using Hurst exponent applied to the Maitri-antarctica GPS network

The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected during years 1997–2007 at Maitri along with the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations viz. Casey, Davis, Yaragadee, Tidbinbilla, Seychelles, Coco, Diego Garcia, Kerguelen and Hartbeesthoek in and around Indian Ocean were processed using Bernese. 4.2 software. The baseline length and their changes were estimated and spectral analysis was carried out subsequently. The value of the Hurst exponent, as estimated from the slope of spectral fall-off of each time series of baseline length, was used to interpret the characteristics of the plate motions in the region. The Hurst exponent is found to be 0.65 (>0.5) for the baseline length between stations Kerguelen and Coco clearly showing a constant increasing trend of the changes in baseline length. The time series of baseline lengths between stations Kerguelen and Diego Garcia; and Tidbinbilla and Yaragadee shows an increasing trend and the Hurst exponent is close to 0.5. This may suggest that the diffuse plate boundary zone and the Australian plate are moving away from the Antarctican plate. The baseline length between Kerguelen and Davis, Casey, Maitri and Seychelles is less than 0.5, which indicates that the baseline length of these stations shows a decreasing trend.     

Horizontal to vertical spectral ratio in different geological formations

A study of horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios with the short duration data in different geological formations with varying soil thicknesses were carried out. The study has been implemented by using the ambient seismic noise and hammer impact to determine the fundamental frequency and the corresponding amplification of soils. In addition, the average shear wave velocity (Vs³⁰) was calculated to infer the stiffness of soils. The results are correlating well with the local geology and therefore testify that the short duration data is adequate to estimate the H/V spectral ratio in site characterization and microzonation studies.