Employment and worktravel in a selection of English inner cities

The inner parts of many of the western world's metropolitan areas are currently suffering such drastic decline that many governments are attempting to rejuvenate their economic fortunes This is the context in which the present study is set, focusing attention on five major English cities — London, Manchester, Birmingham, Nottingham and Leicester — and using census employment and worktravel data for small areas. The study first reports on the relationships between the skills offered by residents, both male and female, and those demanded by employers in inner city areas. In addition to the consideration of the detailed variety of manufacturing and servicing activities taking place, an examination of the office and non-office components of both is undertaken. The second main aspect of the study considers the patterns of worktravel movement linking the places of residence and workplaces so described. The research concludes with a view on the policy implications of the results in the light of the overall context of the rejuvenation of inner city areas.     

Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey

Loss estimation from future earthquakes is of growing importance in planning earthquake protection strategies in high-risk areas. Loss models based on the spectral displacement approach are now widely used because of generally acknowledged deficiencies in earlier approaches using macroseismic intensity or peak ground-motion parameters. However, there has been to date rather little earthquake damage data by which the new generation of models can be assessed and which can be used to calibrate the parameters involved. The availability of several detailed damage surveys carried out following the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey, provides a rare opportunity for such an assessment. In this paper the losses which would be predicted from two different approaches to loss assessment – one using predicted macroseismic intensity, the other using the spectral displacement method – are compared with actual observed losses in the Kocaeli event at two different locations where surveys were carried out. One of these sites was very close to the surface fault rupture (< 3 km distance), the other at a distance of about 4.5 km. It is shown that the predictive methods available generally overestimated the losses at these distances, and a number of possible reasons for these discrepancies are considered. The sensitivity of loss estimates to variations in the key parameters governing the estimation in each case are explored, in particular with respect to modifications in the parameters of the attenuation relationships and the vulnerability parameters. The implications of these results for estimating future losses are discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Interhemispheric observations of impulsive nitrate enhancements associated with the four large ground-level solar cosmic ray events (1940–1950)

We present a compelling similarity of impulsive nitrate enhancements observed in polar ice from the northern and southern hemispheres. This analysis concentrates on the period 1940–1950, during which time the first four recorded solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLEs) occurred. GLEs are strong solar proton events. We show that large and sudden enhancements in the nitrate records from both hemispheres were observed within weeks following the recorded solar cosmic ray ground-level event. The observation of impulsive nitrate enhancements simultaneously in both hemispheres shortly after a large fluence solar proton event is strong evidence in support of a causal connection and argues strongly for rapid transport of atmospheric nitrates generated through the polar atmosphere by energetic solar proton events.     

基于NEESgrid网络的子结构拟动力实验:Mini-MOST实验

美国国家科学基金(US National Sc ience Foundation,简称NSF)资助研制开发的地震工程模拟网络(Network for Earthquake Engineering S imu lation,简称NEES)包括15个分布在不同地点的设备站点,并使用NEESgrid网络相互连接。NEESgrid是一个先进的网络设施,它为地震工程研究,尤其是多地点的子结构拟动力实验(Mu lti-site Substructure Pseudo-dynam ic,缩写为MS-PSD)提供了丰富的工具。本文首先简单地介绍了NEES和NEESgrid,然后使用了一个小尺寸的模型实验(M in i-MOST)演示了利用NEESgrid进行MS-PSD实验的过程。实验原型为一个单层二跨的框架结构,实验将该结构划分为两个实验子结构和一个模拟子结构。实验中,这三个子模块使用一个基于M atlab仿真协调程序SIMCOR进行协调,实验的每一步,SIMCOR发送位移请求给各个子模块并接收各子模块恢复力反馈,同时使用a-OS方法计算结构反应以及下一步的位移。实验结果与分析结果吻合相当好,展示了NEESgrid在多地点远程拟动力实验方面的能力。     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).     

The impact of climatic variability and change in the hydroclimatology of Lake Winnipeg watershed

The hydroclimatology of prairie‐dominated portions of the Lake Winnipeg watershed was investigated to determine the possible presence of trends and shifts in variables that may influence the streamflow regimes and water quality of Lake Winnipeg. The total annual streamflow, precipitation, runoff ratio and daily maximum streamflow in the two major tributaries of the Assiniboine River and Red River were analysed for a range of nonstationary behaviours. Each of these rivers has been gauged for more than 90 years. The methods used included a nonparametric Mann–Kendall test modified to account for diverse memory properties (i.e. short term versus long term) and a Bayesian change point detection model to identify possible segments of time series with inconsistent nonstationary behaviour. Although there is no evidence of statistically significant trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Assiniboine River watershed, a shift‐type nonstationarity in annual runoff and runoff ratio was observed in this area, which is manifested in the form of a sequence of wet and dry spells during the last century. Precipitation and runoff metrics in the American portion of the study area (i.e. Red River watershed) were characterised with both gradual and abrupt changes with an extremely increasing rate of streamflow beyond that of intensified precipitation. The nonproportional watershed runoff response is attributed to the dynamic nature of contributing areas that, together with the semiarid climate, leads to sudden changes of streamflow due to major or even some times minor changes in climate inputs. It is evident that streamflow in the depression‐dominated landscapes of the semiarid glaciated plains of North America is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to minor climate variability and change. This study provides valuable insights into the highly complex precipitation–runoff relationship in depression‐dominated landscapes and could have important implications for water management in this part of North America and comparable regions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.