A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Traditional Irrigation Management in Betmera-Hiwane, Ethiopia： The Main Peculiarities for the Persistence of Irrigation Practices

Introduction Tigray, the northern region of Ethiopia (Figure 1), is located between 12°20′~14°30′N and 36° ~ 41°30′E. It is dominated by undulating topo- graphy with many mountains, plateaus, hills, depressions and limited flat lands. The elevation     

Azimuthal impact directions from oblique impact crater morphology

Planetary impact craters have a high degree of radial symmetry. This hampers efforts to identify the azimuthal impact direction for most craters – the radially symmetric component of an impact crater swamps any asymmetries that may be present. We demonstrate how the asymmetric component can be isolated and the direction of the asymmetries quantified using a two-dimensional eigenfunction expansion over a circular domain. The complex coefficients of expansion describe the magnitude and phase (angular alignment) of each term. From the analysis of hypervelocity impact craters formed in the laboratory, with impact angles ranging from 0° to 50° from the surface normal, we show that asymmetries which reveal the impact direction are still present at just 10° from the surface normal, and that the phase of one complex coefficient of expansion, c ₁₁, indicates the impact direction. Analysis of the lunar crater Hadley shows bilateral symmetry in the radially asymmetric component, which may be due to oblique impact. The 31-km lunar ray crater Kepler has morphological features that indicate the azimuthal impact direction. Coefficient c ₁₁ gives an azimuthal impact direction similar to that expected from the morphology, although post-impact gravitational collapse and slumping obscure the result to some degree. Ray craters may provide a means of testing the method for smaller 'simple' craters when data are available.     

Land restoration in food security programmes: synergies with climate change mitigation

Food-insecure households in many countries depend on international aid to alleviate acute shocks and chronic shortages. Some food security programmes (including Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program–PSNP – which provides a case study for this article) have integrated aid in exchange for labour on public works to reduce long-term dependence by investing in the productive capacity and resilience of communities. Using this approach, Ethiopia has embarked upon an ambitious national programme of land restoration and sustainable land management. Although the intent was to reduce poverty, here we show that an unintended co-benefit is the climate-change mitigation from reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased landscape carbon stocks. The article first shows that the total reduction in net GHG emissions from PSNP’s land management at the national scale is estimated at 3.4 million?Mg?CO₂e?y^?1 – approximately 1.5% of the emissions reductions in Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution for the Paris Agreement. The article then explores some of the opportunities and constraints to scaling up of this impact.

Key policy insights

• Food security programmes (FSPs) can contribute to climate change mitigation by creating a vehicle for investment in land and ecosystem restoration.

• Maximizing mitigation, while enhancing but not compromising food security, requires that climate projections, and mitigation and adaptation responses should be mainstreamed into planning and implementation of FSPs at all levels.

• Cross-cutting oversight is required to integrate land restoration, climate policy, food security and disaster risk management into a coherent policy framework.

• Institutional barriers to optimal implementation should be addressed, such as incentive mechanisms that reward effort rather than results, and lack of centralized monitoring and evaluation of impacts on the physical environment.

• Project implementation can often be improved by adopting best management practices, such as using productive living livestock barriers where possible, and increasing the integration of agroforestry and non-timber forest products into landscape regeneration.

     

TG/plus—a pyrolysis method for following maturation of oil and gas generation zones using Tmax of methane

Thermogravimetric Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (TG-FTIR) analyses were carried out on two sets of isolated kerogens covering a wide maturity range from low mature (0.46% R_o) through the end of oil and gas generation (maximum R_{o = 5.32%}). Data onweight percent and T_max for evolution of methane, volatile tars, ethylene, SO₂, NH₃, CO₂, and CO are reported. The T_max of methane shows the most consistent response to increasing maturation in both sets of samples. Results are comparable to those of whole rocks from an Alaskan North Slope well analyzed previously. The collective data for both whole rocks and isolated kerogens shows a generally linear correlation between %R_o and T_max of methane, with the exception of R_o of about 2.0% where a dip in the curve occurs. The slope of the correlation line was steeper for the predominantly terrigenous Wilcox kerogen than for more marine Colorado kerogen or for the Alaskan North Slope whole rock samples, probably reflecting differences in the chemical nature of various kerogen sets, which is also reflected by differences in the shapes of the pyrolysis curves of SO₂, CO₂, CO, H₂O, and ethylene. These preliminary data indicate that T_max of methane is a good maturation indicator for whole rocks and isolated kerogens up to an R_o of about 4%, which includes all of the wet gas and a considerable portion of the dry gas generation zones. This correlation was also observed for samples containing migrated bitumen, where it was not possible to obtain a reliable T_max for the volatile tar (S2) peak. The more terrigenous Wilcox kerogens also showed a good correlation of the T_max of ethylene with %R_o. T_max of ammonia evolution did not correlate with maturity and occurred 100–200°C lower than previously found for whole rocks, consistent with a whole-rock source of pyrolytic ammonia for Alaskan whole rock samples. HI and OI indices were calculated in several ways and plotted to reflect kerogen type as well as both the residual oil and gas generation potential. The ratio of pyrolyzable to combustible sulfur (evolved as SO₂) was independent of maturity and showed a clear difference between the more terrigenous Wilcox kerogens and the more marine Colorado kerogens.     

Coastal management in Tanga, Tanzania: a decentralized community-based approach

This paper describes a new initiative in coastal management in northeastern Tanzania. The region is within the equatorial part of the Western Indian Ocean. The priority environmental issues being faced include declining fish catches, use of destructive fishing techniques, mangrove cutting and coastal erosion. There is a widespread perception among the users of the coastal resources that management of these issues is inadequate. This programme initiative is developing flexible, community-based approaches to identifying the problems and to take achievable actions. The programme provides training in a wide range of skills and appropriate technical methods for government officials, extension workers and villagers. A collaborative process is evolving that includes participatory appraisals, village environmental committees, facilitation by government extension workers, technical advise and supervision by district technical teams, and regional-wide workshops with key players. Village initiatives taken so far include new by-laws, gear inspection, reef zoning and closures. A number of village mariculture projects are being piloted.     

Spatial variability of factors influencing coastal change in the Western Canadian Arctic

Coastal change in the western Canadian Arctic is influenced by coastal morphology, relative sea-level trend and sea-ice and storm climates. The spatial variability of these factors tends to follow general east–west trends suggesting similar trends in coastal erosion hazard, processes and rates of coastal change. The spatial variability in the causes of coastal change is examined in the communities of Tuktoyaktuk, Sachs Harbour, Holman and Kugluktuk.     

Coupling parameters of the MIT OBS at two nearshore sites

A model representing the coupling of an ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) to the seafloor as a mass-spring-dashpot system satisfactorily explains the results of transient tests performed on different instruments during the Lopez Island intercomparison test. In this paper, we compare the results obtained for the MIT OBS at Lopez Island to results from similar tests at a dockside site at Woods Hole, Massachusetts. The vertical instrument response at the Lopez Island site shows a highly damped resonance at a frequency of 22 Hz, whereas the response at the Woods Hole site shows a marked resonance at 13 Hz. The difference between the responses at the two sites can be qualitatively attributed to the difference between the surficial sediments.     

Shallow Water Dissipation Processes for Wind Waves off the Mackenzie Delta

This study focuses on two physical processes for waves in shallow waters off the Mackenzie Delta: bottom friction and depth-induced breaking terms. We use field observations of winds and waves, the state-of-the-art Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, and reanalysis wind and wave data. The two field observation periods are an August 2008 field experiment, during which in situ field data were collected, and an Arctic storm when data were recorded by buoy measurements from 4 to 6 August 1991. Wind and wave development processes are analyzed during these two periods with comparisons to observed winds and waves. Our analyses show that bottom friction is the main shallow water physical process during the August 2008 field experiment, whereas depth-induced breaking is the dominant shallow water physical process during the 4–6 August 1991 storm, in conjunction with the effects of bottom friction. The SWAN wave model is used to investigate the shallow water physical processes during these two observation periods. Simulation results indicate that the model can give reasonable results, with an appropriate Collins coefficient of 0.006 and a wave breaking parameter of 0.55 to represent bottom friction and depth-induced breaking physics, respectively.

RÉSUMÉ?[Traduit par la rédaction] Cette étude porte sur deux processus physiques concernant les vagues dans les eaux peu profondes au large du delta du Mackenzie : les termes du frottement contre le fond et du déferlement lié à la profondeur. Nous utilisons des observations du vent et des vagues, le modèle d'avant-garde SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) et des données de vent et de vagues réanalysées. Les deux périodes d'observations sont une expérience sur le terrain réalisée en août 2008, au cours de laquelle des données de terrain ont été recueillies, et une tempête arctique lors de laquelle des mesures faites par bouée du 4 au 6 août 1991 ont été enregistrées. Nous analysons les processus dévolution du vent et des vagues durant ces deux périodes, et comparons avec le vent et les vagues observées. Nos analyses montrent que le frottement contre le fond est le processus physique en eaux peu profondes le plus important durant l'expérience sur le terrain d'août 2008, alors que le déferlement lié à la profondeur est le processus physique en eaux peu profondes dominant pendant la tempête arctique du 4 au 6 août 1991, en combinaison avec les effets du frottement contre le fond. Nous nous servons du modèle de vagues SWAN pour étudier les processus physiques en eaux peu profondes durant ces deux périodes d'observations. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que le modèle peut donner des résultats raisonnables, avec un coefficient de Collins approprié de 0,006 et un paramètre de déferlement de 0,55 pour représenter la physique du frottement contre le fond et du déferlement lié à la profondeur, respectivement.