Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Efficient detection of pathogen virus in sand dabs, Paralichthys olivaceus using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP)

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) and marine birnavirus (MABV) are the causative pathogens for some of the most explosive epidemics of emerging viral diseases in many Asian countries, leading to huge economic losses in aquaculture. Rapid molecular detection for surveillance or diagnosis has been a critical component in reducing the prevalence of pathogen infection. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) of DNA is currently one of the most commonly used molecular diagnostic tools, as it is simple, quick, and easy to amplify target DNA under isothermal conditions. In the present study, a novel and highly specific LAMP assay for the sensitive and rapid detection of VHSV and MABV infection in fish was developed. Using a set of synthesized primers matching a specific region of the genome, the efficiency and specificity of the LAMP assay were optimized in terms of the reaction temperature and DNA polymerase concentration, as they are the main determinants of the sensitivity and specificity of the LAMP assay. In particular, we demonstrated that our assay could be applied to efficient detection of VHSV and MABV infection in the wild fish, Paralichthys olivaceus. Our results demonstrate the simplicity and convenience of this method for the detection of viral infection in aquatic organisms.     

Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi provinces,Thailand

Shallow landslides are a common type of rainfall-induced landslide, and various methods are currently used to predict their occurrence on a regional scale. Physically based models, such as the shallow landslide instability prediction (SLIP) model, have many advantages because these models can assess the hazards of shallow landslides dynamically, based on physical stability equations that consider rainfall as a triggering factor. The main objective of this research is to test the SLIP model’s potential to predict shallow landslide hazards in Thailand. To achieve this goal, the SLIP model was applied to two massive landslide events in Thailand. The results predicted by the SLIP model for the two study areas are outlined, and the model prediction capabilities were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic plot. The Phetchabun results showed that the western part of the catchment had the lowest factor of safety (F _S) value, whereas the Krabi results showed that the slopes surrounding the peak of Khao Panom Mountain had the lowest F _S value, explaining the highest potentials for shallow landslides in each area. The SLIP model showed good performance: The global accuracies were 0.828 for the Phetchabun area and 0.824 for the Krabi area. The SLIP model predicted the daily time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the analyzed periods. The SLIP model simulated a negligible percentage of unstable areas over all considered periods, except for expected dates, suggesting that the prediction capability is reasonably accurate.     

Homogeneous reprocessing of GPS,GLONASS and SLR observations

The International GNSS Service (IGS) provides operational products for the GPS and GLONASS constellation. Homogeneously processed time series of parameters from the IGS are only available for GPS. Reprocessed GLONASS series are provided only by individual Analysis Centers (i. e. CODE and ESA), making it difficult to fully include the GLONASS system into a rigorous GNSS analysis. In view of the increasing number of active GLONASS satellites and a steadily growing number of GPS+GLONASS-tracking stations available over the past few years, Technische Universität Dresden, Technische Universität München, Universität Bern and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich performed a combined reprocessing of GPS and GLONASS observations. Also, SLR observations to GPS and GLONASS are included in this reprocessing effort. Here, we show only SLR results from a GNSS orbit validation. In total, 18 years of data (1994–2011) have been processed from altogether 340 GNSS and 70 SLR stations. The use of GLONASS observations in addition to GPS has no impact on the estimated linear terrestrial reference frame parameters. However, daily station positions show an RMS reduction of 0.3 mm on average for the height component when additional GLONASS observations can be used for the time series determination. Analyzing satellite orbit overlaps, the rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS neither improves nor degrades the GPS orbit precision. For GLONASS, however, the quality of the microwave-derived GLONASS orbits improves due to the combination. These findings are confirmed using independent SLR observations for a GNSS orbit validation. In comparison to previous studies, mean SLR biases for satellites GPS-35 and GPS-36 could be reduced in magnitude from \(-35\) and \(-38\)  mm to \(-12\) and \(-13\)  mm, respectively. Our results show that remaining SLR biases depend on the satellite type and the use of coated or uncoated retro-reflectors. For Earth rotation parameters, the increasing number of GLONASS satellites and tracking stations over the past few years leads to differences between GPS-only and GPS+GLONASS combined solutions which are most pronounced in the pole rate estimates with maximum 0.2 mas/day in magnitude. At the same time, the difference between GLONASS-only and combined solutions decreases. Derived GNSS orbits are used to estimate combined GPS+GLONASS satellite clocks, with first results presented in this paper. Phase observation residuals from a precise point positioning are at the level of 2 mm and particularly reveal poorly modeled yaw maneuver periods.     

松辽盆地徐家围子营城组流纹岩地球化学特征及构造指示意义

松辽盆地徐家围子营城组发育一套以流纹岩为主的中酸性火山岩。岩石薄片观察和主量、微量元素研究发现,后期热液蚀变、区域埋深及低温水合作用对流纹岩的Si、K、Rb等元素含量产生一定影响; 流纹岩明显富集Rb、Th、U、Pb等强不相容元素,Ba、Sr、Ti、Eu、P 负异常,暗示其经历了斜长石、磷灰石和钛铁矿分离结晶作用。流纹岩的(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i(0.705265 ~ 0.711895)值变化范围较大,大多数ε_Nd(t)为正值(1.83 ~ 3.38),Pb同位素比值相对集中,(²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb)_i=18.09～18.32,(²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb)_i=15.50 ~ 15.54,(²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb)_i=37.80 ~ 38.10。研究表明,岩石的源区为大比例年轻成分与少量古老地壳的混合部分熔融,其演化过程中经历了不同程度的地壳混染。松辽盆地早白垩世火山岩为板内伸展环境喷发的产物,可能与太平洋板块俯冲导致的中国东部岩石圈减薄、软流圈上涌密切相关。     

Mineralogical and Geochemical Characteristics of the Utanobori Gold Deposit in Northern Hokkaido,Japan

The Utanobori gold deposit is a low‐sulfidation, epithermal vein‐type deposit located in northern Hokkaido, Japan. The deposit is hosted by conglomerate, sandstone, and tuff of the Middle to Late Miocene Esashi Formation. These rocks were hydrothermally altered. Silica sinters and quartz‐adularia veins are common in the deposit. The quartz‐adularia veins either contain a ginguro band, which corresponds to the main gold‐bearing vein (Type 1 Veins), or do not contain a ginguro band but contain minor adularia (Type 2 Veins). Type 1 Veins are divided into three stages with 12–14 substages. Ore minerals identified include electrum, naumannite, chlorargyrite, bromargyrite, an unidentified Fe‐Sb mineral, and an Fe‐(Sb)‐As mineral. These ore minerals formed in the main mineralization stages I (bands I‐b and I‐d) and II (band II‐a). Scanning electron microscopy with cathodoluminescence images show that cathodoluminescence‐dark microcrystalline quartz exhibiting colloform (ghost‐sphere) texture is closely associated with ore minerals in the Type 1 Vein and Type 2 Vein, and the Al and K contents of such quartz are commonly >1000 ppm. This indicates that the ore minerals were crystallized from alkaline, silica‐saturated fluids at temperatures <200°C, which initially deposited amorphous silica that was recrystallized to microcrystalline quartz. The average Au content of electrum is 52.5 at% Au (n = 10), 65.7 at% Au (n = 20), and 55.5 at% Au (n = 5) in bands I‐b, I‐d, and II‐a, respectively, of Type 1 Veins. The δ³⁴S_CDT values of two fine‐grained disseminated pyrites in the altered conglomerate and bedded tuff in the argillic altered zone are ?4.3 and ?4.2‰. Ar‐Ar dating on adularia yielded 13.6 ± 0.06 Ma, 13.6 ± 0.07 Ma, and 13.6 ± 0.06 Ma for the stages I, II, and III of the Type 1 Vein, respectively. K‐Ar ages determined on adularia in the silica sinter and on whole‐rock of glassy rhyolite of the Esashi Formation are 15.0 ± 0.4 Ma and 14.6 ± 0.4 Ma, respectively. These radiometric ages indicate that silica sinter associated with the rhyolitic volcanic rocks formed prior to the main gold mineralization.