Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso

Attempts to quantify the numbers of migrants generated by changes in climate have commonly been calculated by projecting physical climate changes on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the response of an individual to variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration does not support such a structural approach and recognises that migration decisions are usually both multi-causal and shaped through individual agency. As such, agent-based modelling offers a robust method to simulate the autonomous decision making process relating to environmental migration. The Theory of Planned Behaviour provides a basis that can be used to effectively break down the reasoning process relating to the development of a behavioural intention. By developing an agent-based model of environmental migration for Burkina Faso from the basis of a combination of such theoretical developments and data analysis we further investigate the role of the environment in the decision to migrate using scenarios of future demographic, economic, social, political, and climate change in a dryland context. We find that in terms of climate change, it can be seen that that change to a drier environment produces the largest total and international migration fluxes when combined with changes to inclusive and connected social and political governance. While the lowest international migration flows are produced under a wetter climate with exclusive and diverse governance scenarios. In summary this paper illustrates how agent-based models incorporating the Theory of Planned Behaviour can be used to project evidence based future changes in migration in response to future demographic, economic social and climate change.     

Annual variation of sea‐surface slopes over the Scotian Shelf and Grand Banks from Geosat altimetry

Abstract

The Geosat radar altimeter data from ～60 repeat cycles of the Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) over the period November 1986 to September 1989 have been analysed to show the annual variations of the sea‐surface slopes, corrected for ocean tides, over the Scotian Shelf and the Grand Banks. A coastal tidal model developed at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography, combined with the global tidal model of Schwiderski, is employed to remove the tidal signals from the sea‐surface heights over those regions. Linear regression is used to estimate the sea‐surface slopes over the inner shelf region, the outer shelf region, or a combination of the two along the Geosat ground tracks. Harmonic analysis is applied to the time series of sea‐surface slopes to derive the annual signals, showing that amplitudes are of order of 5 × 10^‐7 (5 cm/100 km) with onshore slopes positive in winter and negative in summer.

The largest annual cycles occur over the outer portion of the Laurentian Channel and the southern Grand Banks. The annual cycles differ between the eastern and western portions of the Scotian Shelf: in the east, the signal is synchronized with that of the Laurentian Channel, whereas in the west, the phase of the signal is advanced by 2–3 months. The annual signals over the eastern Scotian Shelf are comparable and consistent with historical hydrographie data along the Halifax Hydrographie Section. The amplitude and phase over the western Scotian Shelf are consistent with the adjusted sea level at the Halifax Station. The annual variability of the sea‐surface slopes over the Scotian Shelf and the Grand Banks is thought to be induced by the seasonal outflow from the Gulf of St Lawrence through Cabot Strait, and possibly by an annual cycle in the Slope Water current.     

An Evaluation of Temporal Changes in Sediment Accumulation and Impacts on Carbon Burial in Mobile Bay,Alabama, USA

The estuarine environment can serve as either a source or sink of carbon relative to the coastal ocean carbon budget. A variety of time-dependent processes such as sedimentation, carbon supply, and productivity dictate how estuarine systems operate, and Mobile Bay is a system that has experienced both natural and anthropogenic perturbations that influenced depositional processes and carbon cycling. Sediments from eight box cores provide a record of change in bulk sediment accumulation and carbon burial over the past 110 years. Accumulation rates in the central part of the basin (0.09 g cm^?2) were 60–80 % less than those observed at the head (0.361 g cm^?2) and mouth (0.564 g cm^?2) of the bay. Sediment accumulation in the central bay decreased during the past 90 years in response to both anthropogenic (causeway construction) and natural (tropical cyclones) perturbations. Sediment accumulation inevitably increased the residence time of organic carbon in the oxic zone, as observed in modeled remineralization rates, and reduced the overall carbon burial. Such observations highlight the critical balance among sediment accumulation, carbon remineralization, and carbon burial in dynamic coastal environments. Time-series analysis based solely on short-term observation would not capture the long-term effects of changes in sedimentation on carbon cycling. Identifying these relationships over longer timescales (multi-annual to decadal) will provide a far better evaluation of coastal ocean carbon budgets.     

Application of sulphur isotope ratios to examine weaning patterns and freshwater fish consumption in Roman Oxfordshire, UK

This study investigates the application of sulphur isotope ratios (δ³⁴S) in combination with carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) ratios to understand the influence of environmental sulphur on the isotopic composition of archaeological human and faunal remains from Roman era sites in Oxfordshire, UK. Humans (n = 83), terrestrial animals (n = 11), and freshwater fish (n = 5) were analysed for their isotope values from four locations in the Thames River Valley, and a broad range of δ³⁴S values were found. The δ³⁴S values from the terrestrial animals were highly variable (−13.6‰ to +0.5‰), but the δ³⁴S values of the fish were clustered and ³⁴S-depleted (−20.9‰ to −17.3‰). The results of the faunal remains suggest that riverine sulphur influenced the terrestrial sulphur isotopic signatures. Terrestrial animals were possibly raised on the floodplains of the River Thames, where highly ³⁴S-depleted sulphur influenced the soil. The humans show the largest range of δ³⁴S values (−18.8‰ to +9.6‰) from any archaeological context to date. No differences in δ³⁴S values were found between the males (−7.8 ± 6.0‰) and females (−5.3 ± 6.8‰), but the females had a linear correlation (R² = 0.71; p < 0.0001) between their δ¹⁵N and δ³⁴S compositions. These δ³⁴S results suggest a greater dietary variability for the inhabitants of Roman Oxfordshire than previously thought, with some individuals eating solely terrestrial protein resources and others showing a diet almost exclusively based on freshwater protein such as fish. Such large dietary variability was not visible by analysing only the carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, and this research represents the largest and most detailed application of δ³⁴S analysis to examine dietary practices (including breastfeeding and weaning patterns) during the Romano-British Period.     

A polarimetric spectral imager using acousto-optic tunable filters

We report laboratory and telescopic observations with a polarimetric spectral imager based on an acousto-optic tunable filter (AOTF) where we demonstrate simultaneous acquisition of orthogonally polarized images at a spectral resolving power on the order of 103 and at a Rayleigh criterion spatial resolution of 100 line pairs per mm. This matches the spatial resolution of most digital arrays. An AOTF is shown to be usable as a fast shutter with a contrast of over 10⁴ on a sub-millisecond time scale while providing an high transmittance of about 75% (both polarizations summed) when illuminated by white light. The polarization contrast between the orthogonally polarized images exceeds 10⁴ across the field of view, permitting accurate measurement of the polarization parameters of incident light. These characteristics are now being used in a program of high spatial resolution imaging in narrow spectral bands. Some peculiarities and limitations of AOTFs are indicated.This research was supported by NASA under Grant NAGW-122 and under contract with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory under NASA grant NAS 7-918.Visiting Astronomer, Mauna Kea Observatory.     

RHESSI as a Hard X-Ray Polarimeter

Although designed primarily as a hard X-ray imager and spectrometer, the Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) is also capable of measuring the polarization of hard X-rays (20–100 keV) from solar flares. This capability arises from the inclusion of a small unobstructed Be scattering element that is strategically located within the cryostat that houses the array of nine germanium detectors. The Ge detectors are segmented, with both a front and rear active volume. Low-energy photons (below about 100 keV) can reach a rear segment of a Ge detector only indirectly, by scattering. Low-energy photons from the Sun have a direct path to the Be and have a high probability of Compton scattering into a rear segment of a Ge detector. The azimuthal distribution of these scattered photons carries with it a signature of the linear polarization of the incident flux. Sensitivity estimates, based on Monte Carlo simulations and in-flight background measurements, indicate that a 20–100 keV polarization sensitivity of less than a few percent can be achieved for X-class flares.     

High resolution investigation of the 7 μm region of the ethane spectrum

Building upon previous studies, we re-investigated the ethane spectrum between 1330 and 1610 cm^?1 by combining unapodized spectra obtained at room temperature with a Bruker Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) in Brussels and at 131 K with a Bruker FTS in Pasadena. The maximum optical path differences (MOPD) of the two datasets were 450 and 323.7 cm, corresponding to spectral resolutions of 0.0020 and 0.0028 cm^?1, respectively. Of the 15,000 lines observed, over 4592 transitions were assigned to the ν₆ (at 1379 cm^?1), ν₈ (at 1472 cm^?1), ν₄+ν₁₂ (at 1481 cm^?1) and 2ν₄+ν₉ (at 1388 cm^?1) bands, and another 1044 transitions were located for the ν₄+ν₈?ν₄ hot band (at 1472 cm^?1). Our new analysis included an improved implementation of the Hamiltonian calculation needed to interpret the complex spectral structures caused by numerous interactions affecting these four modes of vibration. From these results, we created the first line-by-line database containing the molecular parameters for over 20,000 ¹²C₂H₆ transitions at 7 μm.     

Molecular Outflows from High-Mass Protostars

The youngest protostars are obscured from direct view by a high column of molecular gas. Nevertheless, their presence is betrayed through spectacular infrared outflows. I demonstrate here that infrared spectroscopy has the potential to reveal a remarkable variety of details concerning the underlying physics. Near-infrared spectroscopic analyses of the OMC-1, DR 21 & Cepheus A outflows are discussed here. Molecular hydrogen is vibrationally excited by collisions in shock waves. In OMC-1, the ortho-para ratio has been mapped. The ratio is close to 3, suggesting efficient shock thermalisation. In DR 21, shocked (up to the first vibrational level) and fluorescent (higher v-levels) components have been successfully separated. In Cepheus A, non-LTE effects imply low densities. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Radioactivity backgrounds in ZEPLIN-III

We examine electron and nuclear recoil backgrounds from radioactivity in the ZEPLIN-III dark matter experiment at Boulby. The rate of low-energy electron recoils in the liquid xenon WIMP target is 0.75 ± 0.05 events/kg/day/keV, which represents a 20-fold improvement over the rate observed during the first science run. Energy and spatial distributions agree with those predicted by component-level Monte Carlo simulations propagating the effects of the radiological contamination measured for materials employed in the experiment. Neutron elastic scattering is predicted to yield 3.05 ± 0.5 nuclear recoils with energy 5-50 keV per year, which translates to an expectation of 0.4 events in a 1 yr dataset in anti-coincidence with the veto detector for realistic signal acceptance. Less obvious background sources are discussed, especially in the context of future experiments. These include contamination of scintillation pulses with Cherenkov light from Compton electrons and from β activity internal to photomultipliers, which can increase the size and lower the apparent time constant of the scintillation response. Another challenge is posed by multiple-scatter γ-rays with one or more vertices in regions that yield no ionisation. If the discrimination power achieved in the first run can be replicated, ZEPLIN-III should reach a sensitivity of ∼1 × 10⁻⁸pb · yr to the scalar WIMP-nucleon elastic cross-section, as originally conceived.     

Enceladus: The likely dominant nitrogen source in Saturn's magnetosphere

The spatial distribution of N⁺ in Saturn's magnetosphere obtained from Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) data can be used to determine the spatial distribution and relative importance of the nitrogen sources for Saturn's magnetosphere. We first summarize CAPS data from 15 orbits showing the spatial and energy distribution of the nitrogen component of the plasma. This analysis re-enforces our earlier discovery [Smith, H.T., Shappirio, M., Sittler, E.C., Reisenfeld, D., Johnson, R.E., Baragiola, R.A., Crary, F.J., McComas, D.J., Young, D.T., 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (14). L14S03] that Enceladus is likely the dominant nitrogen source for Saturn's inner magnetosphere. We also find a sharp enhancement in the nitrogen ion to water ion ratio near the orbit of Enceladus which, we show, is consistent with the presence of a narrow Enceladus torus as described in [Johnson, R.E., Liu, M., Sittler Jr., E.C., 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. L24201]. The CAPS data and the model described below indicate that N⁺ ions are a significant fraction of the plasma in this narrow torus. We then simulated the combined Enceladus and Titan nitrogen sources using the CAPS data as a constraint. This simulation is an extension of the model we employed earlier to describe the neutral tori produced by the loss of nitrogen from Titan [Smith, H.T., Johnson, R.E., Shematovich, V.I., 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 (16). L16804]. We show that Enceladus is the principal nitrogen source in the inner magnetosphere but Titan might account for a fraction of the observed nitrogen ions at the largest distances discussed. We also show that the CAPS data is consistent with Enceladus being a molecular nitrogen source with a nitrogen to water ratio roughly consistent with INMS [Waite, J.H., and 13 colleagues, 2006. Science 311 (5766), 1419-1422], but out-gassing of other nitrogen-containing species, such as ammonia, cannot be ruled out.