An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability

Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies.     

Climate Change Impacts on Urban Flooding

This paper estimates changes in thepotential damage of flood events caused by increasesof CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. It ispresented in two parts: 1. the modelling of floodfrequency and magnitude under global warming andassociated rainfall intensities and 2. the use ofgreenhouse flood data to assess changes in thevulnerability of flood prone urban areas, expressingthese in terms of direct losses.Three case studies were selected: theHawkesbury–Nepean corridor, the Queanbeyan and UpperParramatta Rivers. All three catchments are located insoutheastern Australia, near Sydney and Canberra.These were chosen because each had detailed buildingdata bases available and the localities are situatedon rivers that vary in catchment size andcharacteristics. All fall within a region that willexperience similar climate change under the availablegreenhouse scenarios. The GCMs' slab model scenariosof climate change in 2030 and 2070 will cause onlyminor changes to urban flood damage but the doubleCO₂ scenarios estimated using the StochasticWeather Generator technique will lead to significantincreases in building damage.For all the case studies, the hydrological modellingindicates that there will be increases in themagnitude and frequency of flood events under thedouble CO₂ conditions although these vary fromplace to place. However, the overall pattern of changeis that for the Upper Parramatta River the 1 in 100-year flood under currentconditions becomes the 1 in44-year event, the 1 in 35-year flood for theHawkesbury–Nepean and the 1 in 10 for Queanbeyan andCanberra. This indicates the importance of usingrainfall-runoff modelling in order to estimate changesin flood frequencies in catchments with differentphysical characteristics.     

Greenhouse climatic change and flood damages,the implications

Most scenarios of greenhouse climate change are obtained from general circulation models. These provide poor information on changes to extreme events. It is therefore, difficult to convert changes of flood frequency into their impact on flood damages. The procedures for estimating urban flood losses are outlined. Australian case studies illustrate the possible effects of greenhouse-induced changes in comparison to the variability under current climate; changes in urban flood losses for small and large catchments; and the implications for dam design. In all cases, relatively small increases in flood frequency would cause significant increases in loss. The policy implications are outlined, it must not be assumed that the availability of more precise data on future flood frequencies will be matched by policy response in the field of flood plain management.     

Oxygen‐18 dynamics in precipitation and streamflow in a semi‐arid agricultural watershed,Eastern Washington,USA

Understanding flow pathways and mechanisms that generate streamflow is important to understanding agrochemical contamination in surface waters in agricultural watersheds. Two environmental tracers, δ¹⁸O and electrical conductivity (EC), were monitored in tile drainage (draining 12 ha) and stream water (draining nested catchments of 6‐5700 ha) from 2000 to 2008 in the semi‐arid agricultural Missouri Flat Creek (MFC) watershed, near Pullman Washington, USA. Tile drainage and streamflow generated in the watershed were found to have baseline δ¹⁸O value of ?14·7‰ (VSMOW) year round. Winter precipitation accounted for 67% of total annual precipitation and was found to dominate streamflow, tile drainage, and groundwater recharge. ‘Old’ and ‘new’ water partitioning in streamflow were not identifiable using δ¹⁸O, but seasonal shifts of nitrate‐corrected EC suggest that deep soil pathways primarily generated summer streamflow (mean EC 250 µS/cm) while shallow soil pathways dominated streamflow generation during winter (EC declining as low as 100 µS/cm). Using summer isotopic and EC excursions from tile drainage in larger catchment (4700‐5700 ha) stream waters, summer in‐stream evaporation fractions were estimated to be from 20% to 40%, with the greatest evaporation occurring from August to October. Seasonal watershed and environmental tracer dynamics in the MFC watershed appeared to be similar to those at larger watershed scales in the Palouse River basin. A 0·9‰ enrichment, in shallow groundwater drained to streams (tile drainage and soil seepage), of δ¹⁸O values from 2000 to 2008 may be evidence of altered precipitation conditions due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Inland Northwest. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differential sensitivity of flounder (Platichthys flesus) in response to oestrogenic chemical exposure: an issue for design and interpretation of monitoring and research programmes

This study was conducted as an initial investigation of 'differential response' in one of the main sentinel organisms used for monitoring programmes in United Kingdom estuaries, the flounder Platichthys flesus. It has been hypothesised that monitoring using species with a wide geographical spread and limited migration, such as flounder, might result in the comparison of different genetic stocks and certainly of populations with differing early life stage contaminant exposure histories. Furthermore, it is probable that these pre-exposure and genetic differences could manifest themselves in an ability to respond differently to contaminant exposure, so-called 'differential response'. It is important that the extent and nature of this response is understood, if we want to be able to fully interpret the monitoring data from such programmes. During this study, flounder were collected from four separate sources; wild caught fish from the estuaries of the Rivers Alde, Mersey and Tyne, and farmed flounder from Port Erin Farm, Isle of Man. Under controlled laboratory conditions, groups of fish from each source were exposed to water-borne concentrations of the synthetic oestrogen ethynylestradiol (EE2) at a nominal concentration of 50 ng/l. Plasma was taken from each male fish after 6 and 10 days exposure and analysed for the presence of vitellogenin (VTG) using an ELISA technique. Significant levels of VTG induction were evident in fish from all sources after both 6 and 10 days exposure. Flounder from the Mersey were the only fish with significantly elevated initial background levels of VTG (day 0) and this appeared to be reflected in that these specimens showed the highest induction response after day 6. However, after day 10, fish from all other sites had a slightly higher mean VTG than those from the Mersey which showed significantly (p < 0.05) lower mean plasma VTG. It is suggested that other differential responses may have been masked by the use of a high dose of EE2 which produced maximum induction in nearly all fish. The findings of the study are discussed in terms of implications for further research into the differential response issue and how the initial plasma VTG figures contribute to a time-series from the Mersey, Tyne and Alde estuaries.     

Buckling of multi-segment underwater pressure hull

Results of a numerical and experimental study into buckling performance of multi-segment pressure hull subjected to uniform hydrostatic pressure are discussed. Constituents of multi-segment configurations are bowed-out cylindrical shells with, and without flanges. Details about five collapse tests of laboratory scale mild steel, CNC machined models are given. Segments were about 200 mm diameter, 100 mm long and had uniform wall thickness of 3 mm. Experimental collapse pressures were in the range from 12 to 20 MPa. Numerical collapse pressures agreed well with those obtained during experiments.     

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.     

Evolution of errors in the altimetric bathymetry model used by Google Earth and GEBCO

We analyze errors in the global bathymetry models of Smith and Sandwell that combine satellite altimetry with acoustic soundings and shorelines to estimate depths. Versions of these models have been incorporated into Google Earth and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). We use Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) multibeam surveys not previously incorporated into the models as “ground truth” to compare against model versions 7.2 through 12.1, defining vertical differences as “errors.” Overall error statistics improve over time: 50th percentile errors declined from 57 to 55 to 49 m, and 90th percentile errors declined from 257 to 235 to 219 m, in versions 8.2, 11.1 and 12.1. This improvement is partly due to an increasing number of soundings incorporated into successive models, and partly to improvements in the satellite gravity model. Inspection of specific sites reveals that changes in the algorithms used to interpolate across survey gaps with altimetry have affected some errors. Versions 9.1 through 11.1 show a bias in the scaling from gravity in milliGals to topography in meters that affected the 15–160 km wavelength band. Regionally averaged (>160 km wavelength) depths have accumulated error over successive versions 9 through 11. These problems have been mitigated in version 12.1, which shows no systematic variation of errors with depth. Even so, version 12.1 is in some respects not as good as version 8.2, which employed a different algorithm.