地区全球化的一种新模式——以广州狮岭镇皮具产业为例

全球化与地区化是两个相对的过程,其相互作用是通过两个重要的过程:全球地区化与地区的全球化,对全球地区化过程已有许多研究成果,但对地区全球化过程的研究相对较少。基于广州花都狮岭镇皮具产业集群的案例研究,认为在贸易导向型的专业化产业集群的基础上,发展中国家的地区形成了产业集群—专业市场—会展经济的"地区结构",这一结构形成了发展中国家自下而上的地区全球化的新模式。这一模式提出的意义在于对于发展中国家,全球化不仅是生产领域的全球化,也包括流通与市场领域,发展中国家的产业全球化需要一种系统的"地区结构",这是地区走向全球的重要途径。     

TLD控制的钢结构振动台模型试验研究

本文通过钢结构的振动台模型试验,研究了在刚性地基条件下矩形调谐流体阻尼器(TLD)对结构地震反应的减震机理和减震效果,为进一步研究土-结构相互作用对结构TLD减震控制效率影响的振动台模型试验提供对比数据。试验结果表明,在水箱中设置铁丝网有助于提高TLD的减震效率,地震动的频谱特性和峰值加速度大小对TLD的减震效率有重要影响。     

日本7级以上双震前泰安台伸缩仪固体潮畸变

山东省泰安台SS-Y伸缩仪自1998年2月运行以来,EW分量仅出现了两次固体潮畸变变化,分别对应发生在日本的2003年9月26日8.0、7.1级双震以及2004年9月5日7.2、7.4级双震。异常变化量值分别为3×10-8、6.3×10-8,持续时间分别为7小时、3天;而且震前异常应变性质与震时山东省各台伸缩仪同震应变性质较一致,与测震仪初动反应的受力状态一致,异常信度较高。认为是板块边界俯冲带强震的静地震现象,并对异常产生的机理进行了讨论。     

Synthetic study on SS waveform splitting and complication

Some influential factors on the complication of SS waveform (with epicentral distance within 40°～180°) are ana- lyzed quantitatively by calculating the full-wave synthetic seismogram using propagation matrix method. Our re- sults show that the transmission-conversion and reflection-conversion phases of S wave at the interface of Moho and free surface beneath bounce points are mainly responsible for the complication of SS waveform, the velocity contrast between the two sides of Moho boundary under SS bounce point also has great effects on the amplitudes of all the conversion and the reverberation phases; the properties of the crust at seismic station also play a role in the complication of SS waveform while the crustal thickness beneath bounce point is thinner relatively. At the same time, two sets of real SS waveform data at the two positions in eastern and western China are analyzed, and the splitting time between SS transverse component and radial component is measured by cross-correlation. Our analysis demonstrates that there is a positive correlation between crustal thickness and the splitting time because of the influences of adjacent conversion and reverberation phases, the splitting time in west with thick crust is ob- viously greater than that in the east with thin crust. Moreover, It is promising that one new method of measurement of crustal thickness will be developed by using the observed SS splitting time.     

Hydrological risk analysis of dam overtopping using bivariate statistical approach: a case study from Geheyan Reservoir,China

Hydrological risk analysis is essential and provides useful information for dam safety management and decision-making. This study presents the application of bivariate flood frequency analysis to risk analysis of dam overtopping for Geheyan Reservoir in China. The dependence between the flood peak and volume is modelled with the copula function. A Monte Carlo procedure is conducted to generate 100,000 random flood peak-volume pairs, which are subsequently transformed to corresponding design flood hydrographs (DFHs) by amplifying the selected annual maximum flood hydrographs (AMFHs). These synthetic DFHs are routed through the reservoir to obtain the frequency curve of maximum water level and assess the risk of dam overtopping. Sensitive analysis is performed to investigate the influence of different AMFH shapes and correlation coefficients of flood peak and volume on estimated overtopping risks. The results show that synthetic DFH with AMFH shape characterized by a delayed time to peak results in higher risk, and therefore highlight the importance of including a range of possible AMFH shapes in the dam risk analysis. It is also demonstrated that the overtopping risk is increased as the correlation coefficient of flood peak and volume increases and underestimated in the independence case (i.e. traditional univariate approach), while overestimated in the full dependence case. The bivariate statistical approach based on copulas can effectively capture the actual dependence between flood peak and volume, which should be preferred in the dam risk analysis practice.     

南四湖沉积剖面中色素与有机碳同位素特征的古环境意义

湖泊沉积物中的色素含量与种类是研究湖泊初始生产力的湖泊环境的有效手段之一。而有机碳同位素比值反映了沉积有机物来源信息。本文在对南四湖沉积剖面中总有机含量分析的基础上,测定了有机碳的同位素比值,同时通过剖面中色素指标的分析,揭示该湖泊环境演化历史。研究表明,南四湖成湖时代为２．４５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．,成湖水体主要来自黄河泛滥;其次,南四湖东西沉积环境差异较大,西部（微山湖）主要受黄河泛滥影响,东部（独山湖     

Frost sorting on slopes by needle ice: A laboratory simulation on the effect of slope gradient

Following a previous attempt to reproduce miniature sorted patterns on a level surface, we report the results of a full‐scale laboratory simulation on frost sorting produced by needle ice activity on inclined surfaces. Four models, with different slope gradients (5°, 7°, 9°, 11°), were designed. Stones 6 mm in diameter placed in a grid covered 20% of the surface of frost‐susceptible water‐saturated soil. These models were subjected to 20–40 freeze–thaw cycles between 10°C and ?5°C in 12 hours. The evolution of surface patterns was visually traced by photogrammetry. Needle ice growth and collapse induced downslope movement and concentrations of stones. A model produced incipient sorted circles on a 5° slope, whereas it resulted in three distinct sorted stripes on a 7° slope. The average diameter or spacing of these forms is 9.7–19.4 cm, comparable to those in the field dominated by diurnal freeze–thaw cycles. Surface parallel displacements of stone markers were traced with motion analysis software. The observed downslope stone displacements agree with those expected assuming that surface soil and stones move by repeated heaving perpendicular to the surface and vertical settlement due to gravity, although the growth of curved needle adds complexity to the overall displacements. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南地区GNSS应变场时空演化与地震事件关联分析

采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对云南境内及邻区近400个GNSS测点1999～2018年的观测数据进行解算,在各个测点时间序列和速度场的基础上,采用克里金插值方法分时段估计该区域在1999～2004年、2004～2007年、2009～2013年、2013～2015年、2015～2018年共计5个时间区域应变率场;根据区域地壳面应变率和最大剪应变率的空间变化以及相应时段之后3年内的MS≥5. 0地震事件分布特征,分析发现:绝大部分震例发生在面应变高梯度带的张压转换区和最大剪应变高值区,可见研究区各个观测时段GNSS应变率场对后期1～3年内的中强震发生区域有一定的指示意义;以2014年盈江6. 1级、鲁甸6. 5级和景谷6. 6级地震为样本,建立监视块体获取应变时间序列,分析发现:地震前三个月左右均出现震中附近短期应变趋势改变、快速增强、转折的现象,这些形变异常变化或许反映了发震区应力-应变积累在接近临界破裂状态时的非线性调整,为地震短临预测尤其是时间要素的判断提供参考。     

南海南部约80ka以来的古地磁记录

晚更新世以来以一系列地磁漂移事件是区域地层对比和确定沉积物年代框架的重要工具.但是在海相沉积物中,识别这些地磁漂移事件多依赖相对磁场强度(RPI)的变化,在地磁方向异常方面鲜有报到,从而影响对这些事件可靠性的讨论.本文选择南海南部巽他陆架附近重力活塞钻孔BKAS2PC的沉积物,进行系统的岩石磁学和古地磁研究,获得该钻孔沉积记录的RPI和磁倾角变化信息.岩石磁学及扫描电镜结果表明沉积物的原生主要载磁矿物为单畴(SD)和假单畴(PSD)钛磁铁矿.在一些层位,沉积后发生的还原作用形成胶黄铁矿等铁硫化物.磁性矿物的浓度和粒度等参数呈现显著的两阶段变化特征,上部(约220 cm以上)含量低而粒度细,下部含量高但粒度相对较粗,整体上均在一个数量级范围内波动.样品的交变退磁特征显示当交变场超过60 mT时,受胶黄铁矿影响产生旋转磁化,剩磁强度反而上升.因此,在20～60 mT之间确定原生特征剩磁,并把RPI定义为NRM_((20-40)mT)/ARM_((20-40)mT).通过~(14)C限定,并与其他有良好年代控制的相对磁场强度曲线进行对比,建立了钻孔的年代框架.结果显示,钻孔沉积物记录了几次显著的地磁漂移事件,这为联合应用RPI与磁场方向异常构建海相沉积物年代学框架提供了新的依据.     

城市住宅空间分布模拟研究

构建城市住宅开发模拟模型（FDM）,并以北京市为案例,模拟城市住宅规模时空演化。FDM综合考虑了政策限制和市场规律模拟开发商决策行为,分4个步骤预测城市住宅面积的空间分布格局演变过程： ①假设无政府限制条件、开发商追求最大利润的前提下,预测城市住宅开发总面积;②在政府限制条件下,对上述预测结果予以修正,预测实际住宅开发总面积;③根据各区块的利润以及政策许可对住宅开发面积进行空间配置;④确定各个区块的建筑规模总量。北京案例表明,延续近几年住宅开发模式,未来住宅规模的增长主要发生在五环外,尤其是五环到六环的区域,而中心城区的开发程度较弱。一方面是由于城市中心地带已经被高度开发,土地利用空间较小;另一方面与政府疏解中心人口、缓解交通阻塞的政策有关。FDM模型的开发为城市土地利用政策的制定提供了良好的模拟分析工具,为城市空间模拟分析研究提供方法上的参考。