Development of a generic concept to analyze the accessibility of emergency facilities in critical road infrastructure for disaster scenarios: exemplary application for the 2017 wildfires in Chile and Portugal

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, or wildfires pose a serious threat to road infrastructure. Especially in emergency situations, the society depends on the road...     

Influence of model type,bias and input parameter variability on reliability analysis for simple limit states in soil–structure interaction problems

ABSTRACT

A general closed-form solution for the true probability of failure of a simple limit state function with one load term and one resistance term is derived. The formulation considers contributions due to model type, uncertainty in method bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety. Example calculations are presented using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.     

Probabilistic analysis of simple slopes with cohesive soil strength using RLEM and RFEM

The 2D random finite element method and the one-dimensional and 2D random limit equilibrium method are used to investigate the influence of spatial variability of soil strength parameters on the probability of failure of simple soil slopes with cohesive undrained shear strength. The combined influence of spatial variability of soil properties and cross-correlation between undrained soil strength and unit weight on the computed probability of failure is explored. The paper identifies conditions where numerical outcomes are similar and where they are not. The limitations of each analysis method are described and implications to analysis and design are identified.

Abbreviations: FEM: finite element method; LEM: limit equilibrium method; RFEM: random finite element method; RLEM: random limit equilibrium method     

Effect of silica fume on compressive strength of oil-polluted concrete in different marine environments

In the present research, effect of silica fume as an additive and oil polluted sands as aggregates on compressive strength of concrete were investigated experimentally. The amount of oil in the designed mixtures was assumed to be constant and equal to 2% of the sand weight. Silica fume accounting for 10%, 15% and 20% of the weight is added to the designed mixture. After preparation and curing, concrete specimens were placed into the three different conditions: fresh, brackish and saltwater environments (submerged in fresh water, alternation of exposed in air & submerged in sea water and submerged in sea water). The result of compressive strength tests shows that the compressive strength of the specimens consisting of silica fume increases significantly in comparison with the control specimens in all three environments. The compressive strength of the concrete with 15% silica fume content was about 30% to 50% higher than that of control specimens in all tested environments under the condition of using polluted aggregates in the designed mixture.     

Rock Mass Characterization and Support Assessment along Power Tunnel of Hydropower in Kohistan Area,KPK, Pakistan

This paper encompasses the engineering geological properties of rock mass along the power tunnel of hydropower in Kohistan, Khayber Pakhtun Khawa (KPK), Pakistan. The major geological units of the study area are Chilas complex (CC) and Gilgit complex (GC) that consists mostly of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Discontinuity surveys were conducted to classify the rock mass by utilizing rock mass rating (RMR) and tunneling quality index (Q) classification systems. RMR system involves collection of data for parameters of rock strength, RQD, spacing of discontinuities, condition of discontinuities, groundwater condition and Q system involves rock quality designation (RQD), joint roughness (J_r), joint sets (J_s), joint alteration (J_a), stress reduction factor (SRF) and joint water reduction (J_w). RMR values ranges from 46 to 66 (fair to good) for rock unit of Chilas complex (CC) and 50 to 58 (fair) for rock unit of Gilgit complex (GC). The evaluated values of tunnel quality by Q-system are 1.55 to 6.4 (poor to fair) for Chilas complex (CC) and 1.35 to 1.84 (poor) for Gilgit complex (GC). The required support along the tunnel route is also estimated by both classification systems. Unwedge program is used to analyze the unstable zones due to the intersection of different joint sets. Total 14 cases are analyzed in Unwedge from which 3 cases have failure potential with FOS less than 1. These failure potential blocks can become stable by applying further support of rock bolting and shotcrete layer.     

Assessment of Reservoir Rock Properties from Rock Physics Modeling and Petrophysical Analysis of Borehole Logging Data to Lessen Uncertainty in Formation Characterization in Ratana Gas Field,Northern Potwar,Pakistan

Petrophysical evaluation and rock physics analysis are the important tools to relate the reservoir properties like porosity, permeability, pore fluids with seismic parameters. Nevertheless, the uncertainties always exist in the quantification of elastic and seismic parameters estimated through wireline logs and rock physics analysis. A workflow based on statistical relationships of rock physics and logs derived elastic and seismic parameters with porosity and the percentage error exist between them is given. The statistical linear regressions are developed for early Eocene Chorgali Formation between various petrophysically factors determined from borehole logging of well Ratana–03 drilled in tectonically disturbed zone and the seismic and elastic parameters estimated through rock physics modeling. The rock physics constraints such as seismic velocities, effective density and elastic moduli calculated from Gassmann fluid substation analysis are in harmony and close agreement to those estimated from borehole logs. The percentage errors between well logs and rock physics computed saturated bulk modulus (K _sat ), effective density (ρ _eff ), compressional and shear wave velocities (V _P and _V S) are 1.31%, 4.23 %, 5.25% and 4.01% respectively. The permeability of reservoir intervals show fairly strong linear relationship with the porosity, indicating that the reservoir interval of the Chorgali Formation is permeable and porous thus having large potential of hydrocarbon accumulation and production.     

Uncertainty analysis in bed load transport prediction of gravel bed rivers by ANN and ANFIS

River flow is a complex dynamic system of hydraulic and sediment transport. Bed load transport have a dynamic nature in gravel bed rivers and because of the complexity of the phenomenon include uncertainties in predictions. In the present paper, two methods based on the Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are developed by using 360 data points. Totally, 21 different combination of input parameters are used for predicting bed load transport in gravel bed rivers. In order to acquire reliable data subsets of training and testing, subset selection of maximum dissimilarity (SSMD) method, rather than classical trial and error method, is used in finding randomly manipulation of these subsets. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of ANN and ANFIS models are determined using Monte Carlo simulation. Two uncertainty indices of d factor and 95% prediction uncertainty and uncertainty bounds in comparison with observed values show that these models have relatively large uncertainties in bed load predictions and using of them in practical problems requires considerable effort on training and developing processes. Results indicated that ANFIS and ANN are suitable models for predicting bed load transport; but there are many uncertainties in determination of bed load transport by ANFIS and ANN, especially for high sediment loads. Based on the predictions and confidence intervals, the superiority of ANFIS to those of ANN is proved.     

Erosion potential assessment of watersheds through GIS<Emphasis Type="Bold">-</Emphasis>based hypsometric analysis: a case study of Kurram Tangi Dam

Sediment discharge due to soil and rock erosion within the watersheds is the major cause of siltation in water reservoirs. Siltation in reservoirs reduces the capacity for power production, irrigation water supply, and other domestic purposes. Hypsometric analysis has widely been used to identifying the geomorphic development stages (stabilized, equilibrium, and un-stable) to assess the erosion proneness of watersheds. In this study, watershed of Kurram Tangi Dam and its four sub-watersheds (SWs) were considered to determine their sediment discharge capacity through hypsometric analysis. The boundaries of watershed and sub-watersheds were delineated from Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The hypsometric parameters i.e., hypsometric integral (HI) and curves were generated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The HI values of SW-1 (0.41) and SW-2 (0.36) indicated that these two SWs were relatively more prone to erosion and contributed higher sediment discharge in Dam siltation. The results were validated through sampling the main drainage channel (Kurram River) to determine the sediment concentration at 12 sites during summer, winter, and spring seasons. Comparison of HI and sediment concentration of SWs presented high correlation (R²?=?0.87). The results emphasized the effective watershed management, extensive afforestation, and construction of silt-control structures at appropriate locations in sub-watersheds. This will ultimately maintain the water and power generation capacity as well as extending the life span of the Dam.     

Assessment of aquifer vulnerability to contamination in Khanyounis Governorate, Gaza Strip—Palestine, using the DRASTIC model within GIS environment

Groundwater is a very important natural resource in Khanyounis Governorate (the study area) for water supply and development. Historically, the exploitation of aquifers in Khanyounis Governorate has been undertaken without proper concern for environmental impact. In view of the importance of quality groundwater, it might be expected that aquifer protection to prevent groundwater quality deterioration would have received due attention. In the long term, however, protection of groundwater resources is of direct practical importance because, once pollution of groundwater has been allowed to occur, the scale and persistence of such pollution makes restoration technically difficult and costly. In order to maintain basin aquifer as a source of water for the area, it is necessary to find out, whether certain locations in this groundwater basin are susceptible to receive and transmit contamination. This study aims to: (1) assess the vulnerability of the aquifer to contamination in Khanyounis governorate, (2) find out the groundwater vulnerable zones to contamination in the aquifer of the study area, and (3) provide a spatial analysis of the parameters and conditions under which groundwater may become contaminate. To achieve that, DRASTIC model within geographic information system (GIS) environment was applied. The model uses seven environmental parameters: depth of water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity to evaluate aquifer vulnerability. Based on this model and by using ArcGIS 9.3 software, an attempt was made to create vulnerability maps for the study area. According to the DRASTIC model index, the study has shown that in the western part of the study area the vulnerability to contamination ranges between high and very high due to the relatively shallow water table with moderate to high recharge potential, and permeable soils. To the east of the previous part and in the south-eastern part, vulnerability to contamination is moderate. In the central and the eastern part, vulnerability to contamination is low due to depth of water table. Vulnerability analysis of the DRASTIC Model indicates that the highest risk of contamination of groundwater in the study area originates from the soil media. The impact of vadose zone, depth to water level, and hydraulic conductivity imply moderate risks of contamination, while net recharge, aquifer media, and topography impose a low risk of aquifer contamination. The coefficient of variation indicates that a high contribution to the variation of vulnerability index is made by the topography. Moderate contribution is made by the depth to water level, and net recharge, while impact of vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, soil media, and Aquifer media are the least variable parameters. The low variability of the parameters implies a smaller contribution to the variation of the vulnerability index across the study area. Moreover, the “effective” weights of the DRASTIC parameters obtained in this study exhibited some deviation from that of the “theoretical” weights. Soil media and the impact of vadose zone were the most effective parameters in the vulnerability assessment because their mean “effective” weights were higher than their respective “theoretical” weights. The depth of water table showed that both “effective” and “theoretical” weights were equal. The rest of the parameters exhibit lower “effective” weights compared with the “theoretical” weights. This explains the importance of soil media and vadose layers in the DRASTIC model. Therefore, it is important to get the accurate and detailed information of these two specific parameters. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analysis and high capabilities of handling large spatial data. Considering these results, DRASTIC model highlights as a useful tool that can be used by national authorities and decision makers especially in the agricultural areas applying chemicals and pesticides which are most likely to contaminate groundwater resources.     

Discovery of an ancient pharaoh’s temple on the Horus military road, Northern Sinai, Egypt

Detailed geophysical measurements have been carried out in the northwestern part of the Sinai Peninsula. This area was mainly used by the ancient Egyptian army forces to support the trading and mining trips to Sinai and Asia. The geophysical field work aimed to discover new buried archeological remains using the efficient archeogeophysical detailed and nondestructive methods including total magnetic field, vertical magnetic gradient, and very-low-frequency electromagnetic measurements. Results of the field geophysical measurements have led to a discovery of a temple which is located on the Horus military road. This discovery has been verified by an excavation program, under the supervision of the Supreme Council of Egyptian Antiquities, where buried remains of a pharaoh’s temple were detected and photographed. Some other sites were recommended for further excavation in the future.