Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.     

Combined morphological and thermal analysis of lava flows: A way to boost understanding of emplacement dynamics

During emplacement, lavas modify the pre‐existing topography and release a large amount of heat. In spite of the relevance of both heat and mass release, combined morphological and thermal analyses have been seldom carried out at a flow‐field scale. Here, we consider a channelised lava flow unit formed at Mt Etna during the 2001 flank eruption, and we show that, by combining a morphological analysis of the pre‐ and post‐emplacement topography with the analysis of the syn‐eruptive thermal signature, critical insights about the processes driving mass and heat dissipation can be derived. Our results suggest that, in the considered lava flow, the pre‐emplacement slope controls heat dissipation and can influence the thickness of the final lava deposit, with possible implications for hazard assessment. The width of the lava channel, instead, appears less sensitive to the pre‐emplacement slope, and tends to regularly increase with increasing distance from the vent.     

From ERS-1/2 to Sentinel-1: two decades of subsidence monitored through A-DInSAR techniques in the Ravenna area (Italy)

Land subsidence due to underground resources exploitation is a well-known problem that affects many cities in the world, especially the ones located along the coastal areas where the combined effect of subsidence and sea level rise increases the flooding risk. In this study, 25 years of land subsidence affecting the Municipality of Ravenna (Italy) are monitored using Advanced Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (A-DInSAR) techniques. In particular, the exploitation of the new Sentinel-1A SAR data allowed us to extend the monitoring period till 2016, giving a better understanding of the temporal evolution of the phenomenon in the area. Two statistical approaches are applied to fully exploit the informative potential of the A-DInSAR results in a fast and systematic way. Thanks to the applied analyses, we described the behavior of the subsidence during the monitored period along with the relationship between the occurrence of the displacement and its main driving factors.     

Micro-seismic monitoring after the shipwreck of the Costa Concordia at Giglio Island (Italy)

A micro-seismic network was used for monitoring the wreck of the Costa Concordia cruise ship, wrecked and run agrounded along the Giglio Island coasts during the night of 13 January 2012, until its removal. The seismic traces were processed by means of real-time and “a posteriori” procedures to detect transients that could be ascribed to wreck movements on the sea bed to integrate this information in an early warning system for assessing the wreck stability. After a first discrimination of the transients using amplitude criteria we proceeded to the localization of the detected signals to focus the attention only on the transients originated in the shipwreck resting area. The results showed that most of the events localized on the wreck were likely related to human work activities or sudden internal brittle failure but not to displacements on the seafloor. Instead, the displacements are associated to the impact on the vessel of great sea storms which approach were well correlated with the increasing seismic noise at low frequency. The carried out procedures based on this unique dataset represent an opportunity to test seismic monitoring techniques also in not usual engineering context to support emergency management activities.     

Geochemical biosignature formation in experimental Martian fluvio-lacustrine and simulated evaporitic settings

To assess whether life existed on Mars, it is crucial to identify geochemical biosignatures that are relevant to specific Martian environments. In this paper, thermochemical modeling was used to investigate fluid chemistries and secondary minerals that would have evolved biotically over geological time scales in Martian fluvio-lacustrine and evaporitic settings, and that could be used as potential inorganic biosignatures for life detection on Mars. Modeling was performed using fluid and rock chemistries relevant to Gale crater aqueous environments. Potential inorganic biosignatures were identified investigating alteration deposits found at the surface of a simulant exposed to short-term bio-mediated weathering and comparing experimental and modeling results. In a fluvio-lacustrine setting (water/rock of 2000–278), models suggest that less complex mineral assemblages form during biotic basalt dissolution and subsequent brine evaporation compared to what would happen in an abiotic system. Mainly nontronite, kaolinite, and quartz form under biotic conditions, whereas celadonite, talc, and goethite would also precipitate abiotically. Quartz, sepiolite, and gypsum would precipitate from the evaporation of fluids evolved biotically, whereas nontronite, talc, zeolite, and gypsum would form in an abiotic evaporitic environment. These results could be used to distinguish products of abiotic and biotic processes, aiding the interpretation of data from Mars exploration missions.     

Beerkan multi-runs for characterizing water infiltration and spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties across scales

A method is presented for characterizing the spatial variability of water infiltration and soil hydraulic properties at the transect and field scales. The method involves monitoring a set of 10 Beerkan runs distributed over a 1-m length of soil, and running BEST (Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters) methods to derive hydraulic parameters. The Beerkan multi-runs (BMR) method provides a significant amount of data at the transect scale, allowing the determination of correlations between water infiltration variables and hydraulic parameters, and the detection of specific runs affected by preferential flow or water repellence. The realization of several BMRs at several transects on the same site allows comparison of the variation between locations (spatial variability at the field scale) and at the transect scale (spatial variability at the metre scale), using analysis of variance. From the results, we determined the spatial variability of water infiltration and hydraulic parameters as well as its characteristic scale (transect versus field).     

A semi-empirical approach to model pressure dependence of elastic moduli in granular media accounting for variations of coordination-number and Poisson-ratio

The effective medium theory based on the Hertz–Mindlin contact law is the most popular theory to relate dynamic elastic moduli (or elastic velocities) and confining pressure in dry granular media. However, many experimental results proved that the effective medium theory predicts pressure trends lower than experimental ones and over-predicts the shear modulus. To mitigate these mispredictions, several evolutions of the effective medium theory have been presented in the literature. Among these, the model named modified grain contact theory is an empirical approach in which three parametric curves are included in the effective medium theory model. Fitting the parameters of these curves permits to adjust the pressure trends of the Poisson ratio and the bulk modulus. In this paper, we present two variations of the modified grain contact theory model. First, we propose a minor modification in the fitting function for the porosity dependence of the calibration parameters that accounts for non-linearity in the vicinity of the critical porosity. Second, we propose a major modification that reduces the three-step modified grain contact theory model to a two-step model, by skipping the calibration parameter–porosity fit in the model and directly modelling the calibration parameter–pressure relation. In addition to an increased simplicity (the fitting parameters are reduced from 10 to 6), avoiding the porosity fit permits us to apply the model to laboratory data that are not provided with accurate porosity measurements. For this second model, we also estimate the uncertainty of the fitting parameters and the elastic velocities. We tested this model on dry core measurements from literature and we verified that it returns elastic velocity trends as good as the original modified grain contact theory model with a reduced number of fitting parameters. Possible developments of the new model to add predictive power are also discussed.     

The influence of local topography for wind direction on Mars: two examples of dune fields in crater basins

In this work, we perform an analysis of large dark dunes within Moreux Crater and Herschel Crater on Mars using High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) and Context Camera (CTX) data sets. These data allow us to conduct a detailed analysis of dune morphology and slip faces, concluding that the studied dune fields are influenced by topographically‐controlled complex wind directions. Our morphological analysis reveals that inside Moreux Crater in particular, the topographic setting dominates the wind flow direction, leading to the development of a sand transport pathway encircling the central peak of the crater. The dune fields in Herschel Crater are also affected by winds controlled by variable topography as suggested by the presence of complex dunes and dune fields. Our analysis indicate that the studied dune systems is not the result of paleo‐wind regimes. Furthermore, we perform thermal inertia measurements using thermal emission spectrometer (TES) data, which indicate that the studied dune fields consist of medium sand 250–500 µm in diameter. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.