Hydraulic borehole characterization through the application of moment methods to fluid conductivity logs

In any type of groundwater transport problem (contaminant solutes, heat, etc.), knowledge of the location and properties of pathways of increased hydraulic conductivity is essential. However, answering such questions in strongly heterogeneous media, such as fractured rock, can be very difficult and budget-intensive with standard geophysical or hydrogeological field investigations. We present a new testing concept and analysis procedure based on a time sequence of wellbore electric conductivity logs, which provides the exact location and the outflow parameters (transmissivity, formation fluid conductivity) of flowing features (fractures, faults, layers) intercepted by the borehole.Previously the quantitative analysis of this time sequence of electrical conductivity logs was based on a code, called BORE, used to simulate borehole fluid conductivity profiles given these parameters. The present report describes a new direct (not iterative) method for analyzing a short time series of electric conductivity logs which is based on moment quantities of the individual outflow peaks, and applies it to synthetic as well as to field data. The results of the method are promising and are discussed in terms of the method's advantages and limitations. In particular it is shown that the method is capable of reproducing hydraulic properties derived from packer tests well within a factor of three, which is below the range of what is recognized as the accuracy of packer tests themselves. Furthermore the new method is much quicker than the previously used iterative fitting procedure and is even capable of handling transient fracture outflow conditions.     

A simple model for potential dewfall in an arid region

It is not always easy to know, post-facto, whether both dewfall and fog may have occurred over a given evening period. Instrumentation limitations make it difficult to quantify dew deposition since they rely on artificial sensing surfaces that are either visually examined on a daily basis or recorded. In arid to Mediterranean regions, both dew and fog can play significant ecological roles as suppliers of moisture. Long-term observation records of dew and fog in such regions tend to be limited, however, due partly to a lack of interest and limited distribution of well-instrumented meteorological stations. Simple meteorological criteria are suggested here to calculate potential dewfall and to indicate whether fog was likely to have occurred over a given evening. A field campaign was carried out in the NW Negev desert, Israel, in September and October 1997, to collect meteorological data and carry out dewfall measurements.     

A method for climate and vegetation reconstruction through the inversion of a dynamic vegetation model

Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes.     

Biogenic emissions from Pinus halepensis: a typical species of the Mediterranean area

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions by vegetation present in the Mediterranean area are not well known. They may contribute with anthropogenic VOC emissions to the tropospheric ozone formation that reaches important level in the European Mediterranean region. The present work, carried out as part of the European ESCOMPTE project «fiEld experimentS to COnstrain Models of atmospheric Pollution and Transport of Emissions», adds a new contribution to the inventory of the main natural hydrocarbons sources likely to participate in the ozone production. The corresponding measurement campaign was conducted in La Barben, a site close to Marseilles (France), with the aim to quantify the terpenic emission pattern and the behaviour of Pinus halepensis, an important Mediterranean species slightly studied.The determination of biogenic emissions from P. halepensis was done by the enclosure of an intact branch in a Teflon cuvette. Main emitted monoterpenes were β trans-ocimene and linalool. The total monoterpenic emission rates thus recorded were found to reach maximum values around 30 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹. The normalized emission rates calculated at 30 °C and 1000 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ with Guenther's algorithm was 14.76, 8.65 and 4.05 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively, for the total monoterpenes, β trans-ocimene and linalool.     

Simulating Climate over Western North America Using Stochastic Weather Generators

The climatologies of daily precipitation and of maximum and minimum temperatures over western North America are simulated using stochastic weather generators. Two types of generator, differentiated only by their method of modeling precipitation occurrence, are investigated. A second-order Markov model, in which the probability of the occurrence of precipitation is modeled as contingent upon its occurrence on the previous two days, is compared with a spell-length model, in which mass functions of wet- and dry-spell lengths are modeled. Both models are able to reproduce the observed annual and monthly climatology in the region to a high degree of accuracy. However, there is considerable over-dispersion in annual precipitation, resulting primarily from an underestimation in the interannual variability of precipitation intensity. The interannual variability of temperatures is similarly underestimated, and is most severe for minimum temperatures. There is a severe problem in estimating minimum temperature extremes, which can be attributed to the negatively skewed distribution of daily minimum temperatures. Non-normality in the distribution of daily temperatures is shown to be a problem in simulating extreme temperature maxima as well as of minima. It is suggested that the normal distribution used in the generation of daily temperatures in the widely used Richardson (1981) generator, and its derivations, be supplanted by a more appropriate distribution that permits skewness in either direction.     

Current meter observations from the Labrador and Newfoundland shelves and comparisons with barotropic model predictions and IIP surface currents

Abstract

Recent current measurements from the southern Labrador and northeastern Newfoundland shelves confirm the presence of inshore and offshore branches of the Labrador Current with high mean currents and low standard deviations. At mid‐shelf weaker and more variable currents occur over the banks, and cross‐shelf flows are found to be associated with the shelf topography. An annual cycle of the inshore branch, in phase with wind forcing, is significant on the NE Newfoundland Shelf but not detectable on Hamilton Bank. The phase of the annual cycle in the offshore branch is consistent with buoyancy, not wind forcing. The observations compare reasonably well with results from a barotropic model for the region and the International Ice Patrol (IIP) surface current map. Differences occur particularly in regions of high bathymetrie curvature or an ill‐defined shelf break. The model location of the Labrador Current lies inshore of that indicated by the data, suggesting the need for better definition of the northern inflow boundary condition and the inclusion of baroclinicity. The HP surface current map agrees well with observations offshore, but shows an unrealistic, broad inshore branch, especially on the Grand Bank These differences have important implications for the drift models.     

Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.     

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Bothnian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling.