Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Adaptive optics near-infrared imaging of NGC 2992 – unveiling core structures related to radio figure-of-8 loops

We present near-infrared adaptive optics, Very Large Array (VLA) radio and Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) optical imaging of the nearby Seyfert galaxy NGC 2992. Spiral structure and an extension to the west are traced down to the core region at the limiting resolution of our near-infrared images. A faint, diffuse loop of near-infrared and radio emission is also observed to the north, embedded within the prominent 2-arcsec radio loop previously observed to the north-west. Near-infrared colour maps and CO narrow-band imaging are then used to identify which regions may not be purely reddened stellar populations. Our new data provide evidence that the VLA radio-loop morphology in the shape of a figure of 8 represents two components superimposed: (1) outflow bubbles out of the plane of the disc, coincident with the extended emission-line region (EELR); (2) star formation along the spiral arm within the galaxy disc and through the dust lane. The near-infrared continuum emission associated with the outflowing radio bubbles suggests that the radio loops are driven by the active nucleus.     

Streambank dewatering for increased stability

Streambank erosion is often the dominant source of sediment leaving modified watersheds. Mass failure of high, steep banks is one of the most serious forms of streambank erosion. The risk of a given bank experiencing mass failure is a function of bank height, angle, and soil strength, which is governed by soil moisture. Two methods for bank dewatering were tested in adjacent sections of streambank bordering a deeply incised channel in northern Mississippi: a low‐cost pump system and subsurface horizontal drains. Pore water pressures (both positive and negative pressures, or matric suction) were continuously monitored for 2 years at the pumped site, at an adjacent untreated control section, and for 1 year at the site stabilized with horizontal drains. Resulting data were used to calculate a time series of the factor of safety using a computer model. Over the course of two wet seasons, average bank retreats for the control and pumped plots were 0·43 and 0·21 m, respectively. More limited monitoring revealed that the site with passive drains retreated about 0·23 m. At the pumped site pore water pressure was 3–4 kPa lower than at the control site during the most critical periods. Accordingly, computed factors of safety were above the failure threshold at the pumped site, but fell below unity at the control site on 11 occasions over the period of observation. Similarly, the drained site displayed generally lower pore water pressure and higher safety factors except for two events when drains were evidently overwhelmed with the volume of local surface and subsurface flows. These results suggest, but do not prove, that bank dewatering promoted lower rates of bank retreat and higher levels of stability since the three sites had slight differences in soils, geometry and boundary conditions. Initial cost of the dewatering treatments were significantly less than orthodox bank stabilization measures, but operation and maintenance requirements may be greater. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accessory mineral U–Th–Pb ages and <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar eruption chronology,and their bearing on rhyolitic magma evolution in the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field,California

We determined Ar/Ar eruption ages of eight extrusions from the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field, a long-lived series of small volume rhyolitic domes in eastern California. Combined with ion-microprobe dating of crystal ages of zircon and allanite from these lavas and from granophyre geothermal well cuttings, we were able to track the range of magma-production rates over the past 650 ka at Coso. In ≤230 ka rhyolites we find no evidence of protracted magma residence or recycled zircon (or allanite) from Pleistocene predecessors. A significant subset of zircon in the ~85 ka rhyolites yielded ages between ~100 and 200 Ma, requiring that generation of at least some rhyolites involves material from Mesozoic basement. Similar zircon xenocrysts are found in an ~200 ka granophyre. The new age constraints imply that magma evolution at Coso can occur rapidly as demonstrated by significant changes in rhyolite composition over short time intervals (≤10’s to 100’s ka). In conjunction with radioisotopic age constraints from other young silicic volcanic fields, dating of Coso rhyolites highlights the fact that at least some (and often the more voluminous) rhyolites are produced relatively rapidly, but that many small-volume rhyolites likely represent separation from long-lived mushy magma bodies.     

Semi-analytic simulations of galactic winds: volume filling factor, ejection of metals and parameter study

We present a semi-analytic treatment of galactic winds within high-resolution, large-scale cosmological N -body simulations of a Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) universe. The evolution of winds is investigated by following the expansion of supernova-driven superbubbles around the several hundred thousand galaxies that form in an approximately spherical region of space with diameter 52  h ⁻¹ Mpc and mean density close to the mean density of the universe. We focus our attention on the impact of winds on the diffuse intergalactic medium. Initial conditions for mass loss at the base of winds are taken from Shu, Mo & Mao. Results are presented for the volume filling factor and the mass fraction of the intergalactic medium (IGM) affected by winds, and their dependence on the model parameters is carefully investigated. The mass-loading efficiency of bubbles is a key factor to determine the evolution of winds and their global impact on the IGM: the higher the mass loading, the later the IGM is enriched with metals. Galaxies with 10⁹ < M _★ < 10¹⁰ M_⊙ are responsible for most of the metals ejected into the IGM at   z = 3  , while galaxies with   M _★ < 10⁹ M_⊙   give a non-negligible contribution only at higher redshifts, when larger galaxies have not yet assembled. We find a higher mean IGM metallicity than Lyα forest observations suggest, and we argue that the discrepancy may be explained by the high temperatures of a large fraction of the metals in winds, which may not leave detectable imprints in absorption in the Lyα forest.