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51.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
52.
G. Cevolani G. Bortolotti L. Foschini C. Franceschi G. Grassi G. Trivellone A. Hajduk V. Porubčan 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,68(1-3):247-255
Continuous radio-wave monitoring of the Geminid activity in December 1992 and 1993 by using a forward scatter (FS) bistatic radar over the Bologna-Lecce baseline (700 km) in Italy, reveals peculiar structural aspects of the stream in terms of signal amplitude-rate and duration-rate dependence. The observational results of the Geminid display obtained in the two consecutive years with differentiated peak levels of transmitted power, exhibit different time distributions of underdense meteors against the signal received power. Both sets of the data relative to the peak activity in December 12–14, show reflection properties of Geminids which are atypical if compared with echoes from cometary-type showers, with really high echo counts at mid-upper levels of the peak received power. An assymmetric curve of activity of the Geminids complex is evidenced, with the peak flux of smaller particles occurring earlier than that of larger ones. 相似文献
53.
An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented 相似文献
54.
55.
56.
We carried out a series of linear stability analyses of the radial and low-degree non-radial p modes for stellar models with initial masses of . The stellar models were computed by using convective overshoot distance , 0.25 and 0.40 H P . Our numerical results show that the β Cephei instability strip forms a horn-shaped region pointing upwards near the main sequence on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram (HRD). The lower part of the instability strip for the radial modes join the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) at , while the top of the instability strip extends up to . The instability strip for the non-radial modes is even wider. The overall instability strip is dominated by the radial and non-radial fundamental modes. The first overtone (the radial-order index is also pulsationally unstable. We have shown that the β Cephei stability is almost independent of the overshoot parameter d over used for the stellar models, while it depends critically on the metal abundance. With decreasing metal abundance, the instability region shrinks and eventually disappears for . 相似文献
57.
Ken Ebisawa Aya Kubota Tsunefumi Mizuno Piotr Życki 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(1):11-14
The Ultra-luminous Compact X-ray Sources (ULXs)in nearby spiral galaxies and the Galactic super-luminaljet sources sharethe common spectral characteristic that they haveextremely high disk temperatures which cannot be explainedin the framework of the standard accretion disk modelin the Schwarzschild metric. We have calculated an extreme Kerr disk model to examine if the Kerr disk model can instead explain the observed `too hot' accretion disk spectra.We found that the Kerr disk spectrum becomes significantly hardercompared to the Schwarzschild disk only when the disk is highlyinclined.For super-luminal jet sources, which are known to beinclined systems, the Kerr disk model may thuswork if we choose proper values for the black hole angular momentum. For the ULXs, however, the Kerr disk interpretation will be problematic,as is is highly unlikely that their accretion disks are preferentiallyinclined. 相似文献
58.
Katherine F. Gunn I. M. MHardy O. Almaini T. Shanks T. J. Sumner T. W. B. Muxlow A. Efstathiou L. R. Jones S. M. Croom J. C. Manners A. M. Newsam K. O. Mason S. B. G. Serjeant M. Rowan-Robinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,324(2):305-312
We present multiwaveband photometric and optical spectropolarimetric observations of the R =15.9 narrow emission-line galaxy R117_A which lies on the edge of the error circle of the ROSAT X-ray source R117. The overall spectral energy distribution of the galaxy is well modelled by a combination of a normal spiral galaxy and a moderate-strength burst of star formation. The far-infrared and radio emission is extended along the major axis of the galaxy, indicating an extended starburst.
On positional grounds, the galaxy is a good candidate for the identification of R117, and the observed X-ray flux is very close to what would be expected from a starburst of the observed far-infrared and radio fluxes. Although an obscured high-redshift QSO cannot be entirely ruled out as contributing some fraction of the X-ray flux, we find no candidates to K =20.8 within the X-ray error box, and so conclude that R117_A is responsible for a large fraction, if not all, of the X-ray emission from R117.
Searches for indicators of an obscured AGN in R117_A have so far proven negative; deep spectropolarimetric observations show no signs of broad lines to a limit of 1 per cent and, for the observed far-infrared and radio emission, we would expect 10 times greater X-ray flux if the overall emission were powered by an AGN. We therefore conclude that the X-ray emission from R117 is dominated by starburst emission from the galaxy R117_A. 相似文献
On positional grounds, the galaxy is a good candidate for the identification of R117, and the observed X-ray flux is very close to what would be expected from a starburst of the observed far-infrared and radio fluxes. Although an obscured high-redshift QSO cannot be entirely ruled out as contributing some fraction of the X-ray flux, we find no candidates to K =20.8 within the X-ray error box, and so conclude that R117_A is responsible for a large fraction, if not all, of the X-ray emission from R117.
Searches for indicators of an obscured AGN in R117_A have so far proven negative; deep spectropolarimetric observations show no signs of broad lines to a limit of 1 per cent and, for the observed far-infrared and radio emission, we would expect 10 times greater X-ray flux if the overall emission were powered by an AGN. We therefore conclude that the X-ray emission from R117 is dominated by starburst emission from the galaxy R117_A. 相似文献
59.
Kaare L. Rasmussen Hans J. F. Olsen Raymond Gwozdz Evgeniy M. Kolesnikov 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(7):1001-1006
Abstract— Jull et al. propose an alternative interpretation of our depth vs. 14C data measured on a peat core from the central Tunguska impact site (Rasmussen et al., 1999). We find that the proposed alternative is untenable. 相似文献
60.
Theoretical studies have shown the possibility of high-temperature ('high enthalpy') geothermal reservoirs in the pre-Tertiary rocks at 4–5 km depth range within the Pannonian Basin. This expectation was proven by the hotwater/steam blowout of Fábiánsebestyén-4 borehole (16.12.85–31.1.86). Exploration efforts carried out during 1987–88 in the broad vicinity of the borehole proved that reservoirs of this type can be found with the combination of seismic reflection, silica-thermometry and magnetotelluric sounding methods. Deliberate prospection should be continued in all suitable areas within the basin, since high enthalpy reservoirs promise profitable operation of geothermal power stations. 相似文献