Entropy and spatial disorder

The majority of geostatistical estimation and simulation algorithms rely on a covariance model as the sole characteristic of the spatial distribution of the attribute under study. The limitation to a single covariance implicitly calls for a multivariate Gaussian model for either the attribute itself or for its normal scores transform. The Gaussian model could be justified on the basis that it is both analytically simple and it is a maximum entropy model, i.e., a model that minimizes unwarranted structural properties. As a consequence, the Gaussian model also maximizes spatial disorder (beyond the imposed covariance) which can cause flow simulation results performed on multiple stochastic images to be very similar; thus, the space of response uncertainty could be too narrow entailing a misleading sense of safety. The ability of the sole covariance to adequately describe spatial distributions for flow studies, and the assumption that maximum spatial disorder amounts to either no additional information or a safe prior hypothesis are questioned. This paper attempts to clarify the link between entropy and spatial disorder and to provide, through a detailed case study, an appreciation for the impact of entropy of prior random function models on the resulting response distributions.     

Efficacy of adapted estuarine fish-based multimetric indices as tools for evaluating ecological status of the marine environment

The assessment of ecological status of marine fish communities required by the marine strategy framework directive (MSFD) emphasises the need for fish-based ecological indices in marine waters. In this study we adapt five estuarine multimetric indices to the marine environment and apply them in three types of substrates, analysing the metrics responsible for the obtained patterns of ecological status. The results show inefficiency of the community degradation index (CDI) and the biological health index (BHI) in ecological status assessment and disagreement between the estuarine biotic integrity index (EBI), the estuarine fish community index (EFCI) and the transitional fish classification index (TFCI). Analysis of individual metrics suggests lack of representativeness and consideration for the particularities of each substrate’s typical fish communities. None of the tested indices were efficient on the marine environment, urging the need for new marine indices that account for differences between types of substrate and depth.     

Trends of tropical deforestation in Southeast Mexico

We assessed deforestation in Southeast Mexico (a surface area of 29 000 km² in seven states) through the comparison of land use/land cover maps at a scale of 1:250 000. This facilitated mapping of the land use/land cover change (LULCC) processes and calculation of the rates of change and the change matrix for the period 1978–2000. An original method was used to assess the accuracy of the LULCC map. The verification sites were selected through a stratified random sampling and were corroborated with aerial photographs for 1978 and 2000. Error matrices were elaborated using both hard and fuzzy set approaches in order to take into account the errors related to generalization of the map in fragmented landscapes. The results showed an average annual deforestation rate of 1.1 per cent which represents an average annual loss of 190 000 ha of forest, or an estimated total reduction of 4.2 million ha over 22 years. Furthermore, deforestation processes are concentrated in some areas such as Yucatan and Chiapas states, which registered major forest conversions to grassland and slash‐burning. The overall accuracy of the LULCC map, assessed with hard and fuzzy set approaches, was 72 per cent and 88 per cent respectively.     

Human impact and soil erosion during the last 5000 yrs as recorded in lacustrine sedimentary organic matter at Lac d'Annecy, the French Alps

Sedimentary organic matter has been systematically studied in an eight-metre long core from the centre of the Petit Lac (Annecy, French Alps). The palynofacies composition identifies different terrestrial organic sources including forest floors, soil-horizons and geological substratum. The amount of recycled organic matter derived from the geological substratum is estimated and subtracted from the other contributions from the catchment area. The palynological record indicates that the relative variations in organic sources are directly dependent on human land-use. From ca. 5000 to 1700 BP, the human impact on soil cohesion is very low and organic matter is mainly exported from the surficial forest floor. The Roman invasion (ca. 1700 BP) marks the most important ecological and hydrological change. From 1700 to 900 BP, the clearing of forests released deeper-soil components. This trend is increased after 900 BP with agriculture intensification, which resulted in a higher sedimentation rate. In all the periods, extreme events such as flood or intensive run-off are characterised by notable increases of organic matter from surface (5000 to 1700 BP) and deep (1700 BP to now) soils.     

Bianchi II with time varying constants. Self-similar approach

We study a perfect fluid Bianchi II models with time varying constants under the self-similarity approach. In the first of the studied model, we consider that only vary G and Λ. The obtained solution is more general that the obtained one for the classical solution since it is valid for an equation of state ω∈(−1,∞) while in the classical solution ω∈(−1/3,1). Taking into account the current observations, we conclude that G must be a growing time function while Λ is a positive decreasing function. In the second of the studied models we consider a variable speed of light (VSL). We obtain a similar solution as in the first model arriving to the conclusions that c must be a growing time function if Λ is a positive decreasing function.     

The Twannberg (Switzerland) IIG iron meteorites: Mineralogy,chemistry, and CRE ages

Abstract— The original mass (15915 g) of the Twannberg IIG (low Ni‐, high P) iron was found in 1984. Five additional masses (12 to 2488 g) were recovered between 2000 and 2007 in the area. The different masses show identical mineralogy consisting of kamacite single crystals with inclusions of three types of schreibersite crystals: cm‐sized skeletal (10.5% Ni), lamellar (17.2% Ni), and 1–3 × 10 μm‐sized microprismatic (23.9% Ni). Masses I and II were compared in detail and have virtually identical microstructure, hardness, chemical composition, cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) ages, and ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al activities. Bulk concentrations of 5.2% Ni and 2.0% P were calculated. The preatmospheric mass is estimated to have been at least 11,000 kg. The average CRE age for the different Twannberg samples is 230 ± 50 Ma. Detrital terrestrial mineral grains in the oxide rinds of the three larger masses indicate that they oxidized while they were incorporated in a glacial till deposited by the Rhône glacier during the last glaciation (Würm). The find location of mass I is located at the limit of glaciation where the meteorite may have deposited after transport by the glacier over considerable distance. All evidence indicates pairing of the six masses, which may be part of a larger shower as is indicated by the large inferred pre‐atmospheric mass.     

Anomalous Diffuse CO2 Emissions at the Masaya Volcano (Nicaragua) Related to Seismic-Volcanic Unrest

Anomalous changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide within the Masaya caldera have been observed before two seismic events that occurred at 10 and 30 km from the observation site. Their epicenters are located, respectively, south of Managua in Las Colinas (4.3 magnitude) and the Xiloa caldera (3.6 magnitude), in 2002 and 2003, recorded by the geochemical station located at El Comalito, Masaya volcano (Nicaragua). Anomalous increases were observed, which occurred around 50 and 8 days before the main seismic event that took place in Las Colinas, and 4 days before the seismic swarm at the Xiloa caldera, with a maximum CO₂ efflux of 9.3 and 10.7 kg m^?2 day^?1, respectively. The anomalous CO₂ efflux increases remained after filtering with multiple regression analysis was applied to the CO₂ efflux time series, which indicated that atmospheric variables, during the first 4 months, explained 23 % CO₂ variability, whereas, during the rest of the time series, CO₂ efflux values are poorly controlled with only 6 %. The observed anomalies of the diffuse CO₂ emission rate might be related to pressure changes within the volcanic–hydrothermal system and/or to geostructural changes in the crust due to stress/strain changes caused before and during the earthquakes’ formation, and seem not to be related to the activity of the main crater of Masaya volcano.     

Influence of livestock soil eutrophication on floral composition in the Pyrenees mountains

Livestock behaviour in the Pyrenees includes free grazing and a long resting period that provokes the accumulation of dung and urine in some places,so-called camping areas. The aims of this study were （i） to analyze any change in floral composition,and in nutritional and chemical contents of plants in a livestock camping area; and （ii） to relate the floral composition with soil chemical properties. In a linear transect,five sampling zones were established,from the centre of the camping area to the surrounding Nardus stricta-dominant pasture. The above ground plant biomass and the topsoil were sampled in each zone with 6 replicates per zone. Plant species were classified and weighed to calculate above ground biomass,nutritional and chemical contents,and Shannon diversity and evenness indices. Additionally,soils were sampled in two periods,at the beginning and at the end of grazing period. Soil available nutrients （nitrate,ammonium,phosphorus,potassium,calcium and magnesium）,total nitrogen,organic carbon and pH were measured.
Plant chemical contents （protein,lignin and others） were significantly related to the proportions of grasses,legumes and other plants; so,the protein content is positively correlated with legumes plant biomass while lignin content is negatively correlated with grasses. Both plant and soil nutrients increased linearly towards the centre of the camping area. However,the relationship among plant species richness,diversity and evenness relative to its position along the studied transect was bell-shaped. From the outskirts to the centre of the camping area,plants with low nutrient demand were progressively replaced by those with medium and high nutrients demand and by pioneers.
Nardus stricta-dominant pasture has low plant diversity and plant nutrient content as well as a poor soil nutrient availability. The presence of the camping area introduced patches with more soil nutrients and new species in the large spatial scale. However at a small spatial scale,the strong soil nutrien     

Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain

Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.