Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

A parametric study on the impact of satellite attitude errors on GOCE gravity field recovery

In the recent design of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission, the gravity gradients are defined in the gradiometer reference frame (GRF), which deviates from the actual flight direction (local orbit reference frame, LORF) by up to 3–4°. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of uncertainties in the knowledge of the gradiometer orientation due to attitude reconstitution errors on the gravity field solution. In the framework of several numerical simulations, which are based on a realistic mission configuration, different scenarios are investigated, to provide the accuracy requirements of the orientation information. It turns out that orientation errors have to be seriously considered, because they may represent a significant error component of the gravity field solution. While in a realistic mission scenario (colored gradiometer noise) the gravity field solutions are quite insensitive to small orientation biases, random noise applied to the attitude information can have a considerable impact on the accuracy of the resolved gravity field models.     

The role of organic coatings in the enrichment of marine particles with selenium. The fixation of selenite on an adsorbed amino acid

The enrichment of marine particles with selenium cannot be explained as that with metals present in cationic form by complexation with anionic functional groups of adsorbed organic matter. Physicochemical data obtained using a model system are reported. The surface of the particles is modelized by a mercury electrode whose surface charge density can be easily changed, covered by a layer of adsorbed polymers. Studies with different kinds of macromolecules and salts show a specific interaction between adsorbed polyalanine and selenite. The results can be explained by the concordance of the distances between two oxygen atoms in this oxyanion and between two amine groups of the adsorbed polypeptide. A similar mechanism could occur in marine aggregates whatever their nature, as long as they contain amine groups at their surface which result in this concordance. Some prospects derived from the results are discussed.     

Dynamic evolution of the 1997–1999 El Niño–La Niña cycle in the southern California Current System

The development of the strongest El Niño event on record in the equatorial Pacific in 1997–1998 and the rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions in 1998–1999 had a large impact on the physical and biological environment of the West Coast. We investigate the evolution of the physical structure and circulation dynamics of the southern California Current System (CCS) during this period based on hydrographic data collected on 25 cruises over a 45-month period (February 1996–October 1999). The El Niño period was characterized by a significant increase in dynamic height, extreme water mass characteristics, a strengthening and broadening of the poleward nearshore flow, and a temporary reversal of net alongshore transport. By early 1999, conditions in the CCS had reversed. The data suggest that remotely driven forcing (propagating oceanic waves) contributed to the anomalies observed during the El Niño period, while the cool-water conditions of 1999 were most likely a result of anomalous local atmospheric forcing.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Flood‐based analysis of high‐magnitude sediment transport using a non‐parametric method

Upland erosion and the resulting reservoir siltation is a serious issue in the Isábena catchment (445 km² Central Spanish Pyrenees). During a three‐month period, water and sediment fluxes have been monitored at the catchment outlet (Capella), two adjacent subcatchments (Villacarli, 41 km²; Cabecera, 145 km²) and the elementary badland catchment Torrelaribera (8 ha). This paper presents the results of the monitoring, a method for the calculation of a sedigraph from intermittent measurements and the derived sediment yields at the monitored locations. The observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) demonstrate the role of badlands as sediment sources: SSCs of up to 280 g l^?1 were encountered for Villacarli, which includes large badland areas. SSCs at the Cabecera catchment, with great areas of woodland, barely exceeded 30 g l^?1. SSCs directly at the sediment source (Torrelaribera) were comparable to those at Villacarli, suggesting a close connection within this subcatchment. At Capella, SSCs of up to 99 g l^?1 were observed. For all sites, SSC displayed only a loose correlation with discharge, inhibiting the application of a simple sediment rating curve. Instead, ancillary variables acting as driving forces or proxies for the processes (rainfall energy, cumulative discharge, rising/falling limb data) were included in a quantile regression forest model to explain the variability in SSC. The variables with most predictive power vary between the sites, suggesting the predominance of different processes. The subsequent flood‐based calculation of sediment yields attests high specific sediment yields for Torrelaribera and Villacarli (6277 and 1971 t km^?2) and medium to high yields for Cabecera and Capella (139 and 410 t km^?2) during the observation period. In all catchments, most of the sediment was exported during intense storms of late summer. Later flood events yield successively less sediment. Relating upland sediment production to yield at the outlet suggests considerable effects of sediment storage within the river channel. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The macroinfauna of the Galician sandy beaches (NW Spain) affected by the Prestige oil-spill

Eighteen sandy beaches were sampled along the 1659 km of the Galician coast (NW Spain) six months after the Prestige oil-spill to study the impact of the fuel and the clean-up activities on the macroinfauna community. A transect was extended at each beach, from above the drift line to below the swash line at five sampled levels; at each level six 0.05 m2 replicates were taken to a depth of 30 cm and sieved through a 1mm mesh, and the organisms collected and preserved. Results were compared with previous data obtained using the same procedures. The macroinfauna was numerically dominated by the amphipod Pontocrates arenarius, the isopod genus Eurydice, the polychaete Scolelepis squamata, and the amphipod Talitrus saltator. As a result of the Prestige oil-spill and the clean-up activities, beach populations were reduced, with Eurydice and S. squamata as the most affected taxa.     

Solar flare injection and propagation of low-energy protons and electrons in the event of 7–9 July, 1966

Simultaneous observations of the 7–9 July 1966 solar particle event by energetic particle detectors on three satellites, IMP-III, OGO-III and Explorer 33 are utilized to show that large spatial gradients are present in the fluxes of 0.5–20 meV protons and 45 keV electrons. The event is divided into three parts: the ordinary diffusive component, the halo, and the core. The core corotates with the interplanetary field, and therefore it and the surrounding halo are interpreted as spatial features which are connected by the interplanetary magnetic field lines to the vicinity of the flare region. Upper limits to the interplanetary transverse diffusion coefficient for 4–20 meV protons at 1 AU are derived from the width of the halo. These are at least two orders of magnitude less than the parallel diffusion coefficient for the same energy particles.It is argued that the observed flux variations cannot be explained by an impulsive point source injection for any physically reasonable diffusion model. Instead, since the interplanetary transverse-diffusion coefficient is small for these low-energy particles, the observed spatial features are interpreted as the projection to 1 AU by the interplanetary field lines of an extensive injection profile at the sun. The geometry of the injection mechanism is discussed and it is suggested that some temporary storage of the flare particles occurs near the sun.Now at NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., U.S.A.