Probing for overshooting as extreme event of thunderstorms

Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θ_e), mixing ratio (e_s) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.

     

Wavelet‐based simulation of spectrum‐compatible aftershock accelerograms

In damage‐based seismic design it is desirable to account for the ability of aftershocks to cause further damage to an already damaged structure due to the main shock. Availability of recorded or simulated aftershock accelerograms is a critical component in the non‐linear time‐history analyses required for this purpose, and simulation of realistic accelerograms is therefore going to be the need of the profession for a long time to come. This paper attempts wavelet‐based simulation of aftershock accelerograms for two scenarios. In the first scenario, recorded main shock and aftershock accelerograms are available along with the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion, and an accelerogram has been simulated for the anticipated aftershock motion such that it incorporates temporal features of the recorded aftershock accelerogram. In the second scenario, a recorded main shock accelerogram is available along with the PSA spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion and PSA spectrum and strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion. Here, the accelerogram for the anticipated aftershock motion has been simulated assuming that temporal features of the main shock accelerogram are replicated in the aftershock accelerograms at the same site. The proposed algorithms have been illustrated with the help of the main shock and aftershock accelerograms recorded for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It has been shown that the proposed algorithm for the second scenario leads to useful results even when the main shock and aftershock accelerograms do not share the same temporal features, as long as strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion is properly estimated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment and evaluation of potential climate change impact on monsoon flows using machine learning technique over Wainganga River basin,India

In this study, classification- and regression-based statistical downscaling is used to project the monthly monsoon streamflow over the Wainganga basin, India, using 40 global climate model (GCM) outputs and four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support vector machine (SVM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) are considered to perform downscaling. The RVM outperforms SVM and is used to simulate future projections of monsoon flows for different periods. In addition, variability in water availability with uncertainty and change point (CP) detection are accomplished by flow–duration curve and Bayesian analysis, respectively. It is observed from the results that the upper extremes of monsoon flows are highly sensitive to increases in temperature and show a continuous decreasing trend. Medium and low flows are increasing in future projections for all the scenarios, and high uncertainty is noticed in the case of low flows. An early CP is detected in the case of high emissions scenarios.     

Flare Prediction Using Photospheric and Coronal Image Data

The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar-image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity. We do this by developing an algorithm that i) automatically generates features in 5.5 TB of image data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory of the solar photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona during the time period between May 2010 and May 2014, ii) combines these features with other features based on flaring history and a physical understanding of putative flaring processes, and iii) classifies these features to predict whether a solar active region will flare within a time period of \(T\) hours, where \(T = 2 \mbox{ and }24\). Such an approach may be useful since, at the present time, there are no physical models of flares available for real-time prediction. We find that when optimizing for the True Skill Score (TSS), photospheric vector-magnetic-field data combined with flaring history yields the best performance, and when optimizing for the area under the precision–recall curve, all of the data are helpful. Our model performance yields a TSS of \(0.84 \pm0.03\) and \(0.81 \pm0.03\) in the \(T = 2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively, and a value of \(0.13 \pm0.07\) and \(0.43 \pm0.08\) for the area under the precision–recall curve in the \(T=2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively. These relatively high scores are competitive with previous attempts at solar prediction, but our different methodology and extreme care in task design and experimental setup provide an independent confirmation of these results. Given the similar values of algorithm performance across various types of models reported in the literature, we conclude that we can expect a certain baseline predictive capacity using these data. We believe that this is the first attempt to predict solar flares using photospheric vector-magnetic field data as well as multiple wavelengths of image data from the chromosphere, transition region, and corona, and it points the way towards greater data integration across diverse sources in future work.     

Regional Groundwater Assessment of Krishna River Basin Using Integrated GIS Approach

The groundwater occurrence and movement within the flow systems are governed by many natural factors like topography, geology, geomorphology, lineament structures, soil, drainage network and land use land cover (LULC). Due to complex natural geological/hydro-geological regime a systematic planning is needed for groundwater exploitation. It is even more important to characterize the aquifer system and delineate groundwater potential zones in different geological terrain. The study employed integration of weighted index overlay analysis (WIOA) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques to assess the groundwater potential zones in Krishna river basin, India and the validation of the result with existing groundwater levels. Different thematic layers such as geology, geomorphology, soil, slope, LULC, drainage density, lineament density and annual rainfall distribution were integrated with WIOA using spatial analyst tools in Arc-GIS 10.1. These thematic layers were prepared using Geological survey of India maps, European Digital Archive of Soil Maps, Bhuvan (Indian-Geo platform of ISRO, NRSC) and 30 m global land cover data. Drainage, watershed delineation and slope were prepared from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model of 30 m resolution data. WIOA is being carried out for deriving the normalized score for the suitability classification. Weight factor is assigned for every thematic layer and their individual feature classes considering their significant importance in groundwater occurrence. The final map of the study area is categorized into five classes very good, good, moderate, poor and very poor groundwater potential zones. The result describes the groundwater potential zones at regional scale which are in good agreement with observed ground water condition at field level. Thus, the results derived can be very much useful in planning and management of groundwater resources in a regional scale.     

Studies of scintillations and TEC variations with GPS satellite links together with soil radon anomalies preceding Nepal earthquakes of April–May 2015

Natural Hazards - Ionospheric effects like scintillations and anomalous variations in total electron content (TEC) monitored with Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites of L1 frequency over...     

Two- and three-dimensional oil spill model for coastal waters

This paper presents the development and application of two-dimensional and three-dimensional oil trajectory and fate models for coastal waters. In the two-dimensional model, the oil slick is divided into a number of small grids and the properties of each grid due to spreading, advection, turbulent diffusion, evaporation and dissolution are studied. This model can predict the movement of the oil slick on the water surface. In order to simulate the distribution of oil particles in the water column, a three-dimensional oil fate model is developed based on the mass transport equation and the concentration distribution of oil particles can be solved. A comparison of numerical results with the observed data shows good conformity.     

A technique for measurement of rotational frequency

On the basis of Chandrasekhar's proposition that the Coriolis force has an influence on the magnetohydrodynamic waves excited in cosmic phenomena, a simple approximate formula determining the rotational frequency from the effects of Coriolis force is derived. The method is expected to be of value for rotating medium studies and may be applicable in diagnosing the physical parameters of an ionized medium.