在四维变分同化中运用集合协方差的试验

利用浅水方程模式和模式模拟资料进行数值试验比较3种不同的背景误差协方差矩阵处理方法对四维变分(4DVAR)资料同化的影响.3种背景误差协方差矩阵分别是:(1)对单一变量将背景误差协方差矩阵简化为对角矩阵;(2)将背景误差协方差矩阵的作用简化为高斯过滤;(3)由预报集合生成背景误差协方差矩阵并利用奇异值分解技术解决矩阵的求逆.通过一系列数值试验,比较不同观测密度、不同观测误差下3种背景误差协方差处理方法对4DVAR同化效果的影响.结果表明,背景误差协方差的结构对4DVAR有重大影响.当观测资料的空间密度不够高时,采用对角矩阵得不到满意的结果.高斯过滤方案可以明显改善同化结果,但是对背景误差特征长度比较敏感.第3种方法采用的背景误差协方差矩阵是流型依赖的,而且并不以显式的方式出现在目标函数中.避免了对它求逆的复杂运算.由于做了降维处理,在观测点的密度较低和观测误差较大时可望取得较好的同化结果,同化效果较为稳定.     

Assessing the impact of climate changes on the potential yields of maize and paddy rice in Northeast China by 2050

Northeast China is the main crop production region in China, and future climate change will directly impact crop potential yields, so exploring crop potential yields under future climate scenarios in Northeast China is extremely critical for ensuring future food security. Here, this study projected the climate changes using 12 general circulation models (GCMs) under two moderate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) from 2015 to 2050. Then, based on the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model, we explored the effect of climate change on the potential yields of maize and paddy rice in Northeast China during 2015–2050. The annual relative humidity increased almost throughout the Northeast China under two RCPs. The annual precipitation increased more than 400 mm in some west, east, and south areas under RCP 4.5, but decreased slightly in some areas under RCP 6.0. The annual wind speed increased over 2 m/s in the west region. The annual net solar radiation changes varied significantly with latitude, but the changes of annual maximum temperature and minimum temperature were closely related to the terrain. Under RCP 4.5, the average maize potential yield increased by 34.31% under the influence of climate changes from 2015 to 2050. The average rice potential yield increased by 16.82% from 2015 to 2050. Under RCP 6.0, the average maize and rice potential yields increased by 25.65% and 6.34% respectively. The changes of maize potential yields were positively correlated with the changes of precipitation, wind speed, and net solar radiation (the correlation coefficients were > 0.2), and negatively correlated with the changes of relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature under two RCPs. The changes of rice potential yields were positively correlated with the changes of precipitation (correlation coefficient = 0.15) under RCP 4.5. Under RCP 6.0, it had a slight positive correlation with net solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed.     

GF-2影像中不同水体指数模型提取精度及稳定性分析

针对GF-2卫星影像数据的特点,选取了临夏回族自治州境内两个不同研究区域,分别采用单波段阈值法、归一化差分植被指数法（NDVI）及其他3种水体提取指数法（NDWI、SWI、MSWI）对两个研究区进行水体提取试验。通过分析比较各水体指数模型中阈值对水体提取精度和稳定性的影响,发现研究区1（城区）中单波段阈值法提取效果最高达到71.29,且稳定性较好。研究区2（山区）中MSWI方法提取精度最高为95.76,稳定性较单波段法次之。本文试验为GF-2影像在不同区域进行水体提取时选择不同模型及阈值时提供可靠的参考依据。     

1951—2020年广州地区极端气温指数年月尺度变化研究

根据广州国家基本气象站1951—2020年的逐日气温资料,采用线性趋势法、距平及累积距平法和Mann-Kendall检验法,对WMO推荐的16种极端气温指数中的13种以及2种结合本地实际的新的极端气温指数共计15种指数进行计算,从月尺度和年尺度分析广州地区各极端气温指数随时间变化的趋势和突变年份,并对以往研究中较少探究的基期的选择对相对极端气温指数的结果影响进行了对比分析。(1)从年尺度看,广州地区近70 a的夏日日数SU25、酷热日数SU35、热夜日数TR20、非常热夜日数TR26、最高气温TXx、最低气温TNn、最低气温最大值TNx、相对暖夜日数TN90p、暖昼日数TX90p、显著偏暖持续指数WSDI均呈现明显的上升趋势,相对冷夜日数TN10p、冷昼日数TX10p和偏冷持续指数CSDI呈现下降趋势,气温日较差DTR和最高气温最小值TXn变化趋势不明显;(2)新的极端气温指数SU35和TR26的上升速率明显大于SU25和TR20的上升速率,能更好地反映近70 a昼夜体感炎热日数呈现极显著的上升趋势,更加符合评估气候变化对当地生产生活的影响;(3)从月尺度来看近70 a广州地区的暖系列...     

Effect of Mesoscale Land Use Change on Characteristics of Convective Boundary Layer:Semi-Idealized Large Eddy Simulations over Northwest China

Although large-scale topography and land use have been properly considered in weather and climate models, the effect of mesoscale and microscale heterogeneous land use on convective boundary layer(CBL) has not been fully understood yet. In this study, the influence of semi-idealized strip-like patches of oases and deserts, which resemble irrigated land use in Northwest China, on the CBL characteristics, is investigated based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-large eddy simulation(LES) driven by observed land surface data. The influences of soil water content in oases on aloft CBL flow structure, stability, turbulent kinetic energy(TKE), and vertical fluxes are carefully examined through a group of sensitivity experiments. The results show that secondary circulation(SC)/turbulent organized structures(TOS) is the strongest/weakest when soil water content in oases is close to saturation(e.g.,when the oases are irrigated). With the decrease of soil water content in oases(i.e., after irrigation), SC(TOS) becomes weak(strong) in the lower and middle CBL, the flux induced by SC and TOS becomes small(large), which has a dramatic impact on point measurement of eddy covariance(EC) fluxes. The flux induced by SC and TOS has little influence on EC sensible heat flux, but great influence on EC latent heat flux. Under this circumstance, the area averaged heat flux cannot be represented by point measurement of flux by the EC method, especially just after irrigation in oases. Comparison of imbalance ratio(i.e., contribution of SC and TOS to the total flux) reveals that increased soil moisture in oases leads to a larger imbalance ratio as well as enhanced surface heterogeneity. Moreover,we found that the soil layer configuration at different depths has a negligible impact on the CBL flux properties.     

基于微服务架构的分布式灾情管理系统设计

为及时获取多源异构灾情信息,以多源灾情管理系统的架构和功能模块为研究对象,针对单体系统存在灵活性差、性能低、资源消耗不均衡等问题,提出基于微服务架构设计,在分布式环境下利用Spring Cloud框架,通过业务划分,设计独立模块的微服务,同时加入熔断器、消息队列等组件,缓存处理数据.运用地理信息系统实现灾情数据实时获取...     

南秦岭旬阳盆地下古生界热水沉积成矿地球化学

新近在南秦岭旬阳盆地志留系中发现重要铅锌矿化，含矿岩系主要是下、中志留统弱变质含炭细碎屑岩和新发现识别出的热水沉积炭硅质岩、钠长石岩等；矿体呈层状与志留系整合产出，含矿层中有热水沉积硅质岩和铁碳酸盐岩。矿床REE地球化学反映铅锌矿石、硅质岩和钠长石岩的形成物质可能来自盆下源深处，成岩成矿作用具有热水沉积性质；岩矿石稳定同住素组成指示成矿流体为深部来源，成矿流体中富含CO2（18．656～35．063mol％），成矿温度135～297℃；矿石S和Pb同位素组成反映S来源于深部，Pb来自盆地基底和沉积地层。受地幔热点控制的扬子北缘古生代伸展海盆中，热水沉积是旬阳盆地志留系铅锌成矿的基本方式。     

煅烧改性净水厂污泥对底泥内源磷释放的控制效果

以自主研发的煅烧改性净水厂污泥（C-WTPS）作为污染底泥活性覆盖材料,室内静态模拟实验研究C-WTPS覆盖强度对控制底泥磷释放效果的影响,分析C-WTPS和底泥中不同形态磷含量变化,探讨C-WTPS薄层覆盖对上覆水体中pH、DO和ORP的影响.结果表明,实验历时40天,在底泥TP释放强度为6.25~10.87 mg/（m²·d）时,覆盖强度为0.25、0.50、1.00、1.50和2.00 kg/m²的C-WTPS对TP平均削减率分别为59.68%、75.71%、88.75%、92.42%和96.28%,可见覆盖强度为1.00 kg/m²以上的C-WTPS能控制底泥中90%以上TP释放.C-WTPS吸附的磷主要以无机磷（IP）中的铁铝结合态磷（NAIP）形式存在,有机磷（OP）和钙磷（AP）形式较少.C-WTPS促进了底泥中易释放形态磷迁移到C-WTPS中,并转化较为稳定的形态磷,可见C-WTP覆盖不仅控制了底泥磷释放,而且也削减了底泥磷释放风险.C-WTPS覆盖后,上覆水体中pH开始呈现下降趋势,最终维持在pH=7范围波动;C-WTPS覆盖强度越大,上覆水体pH下降也明显;C-WTPS覆盖改善上覆水体中DO和ORP环境的效果不明显.     

Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s简

Land-use/land-cover changes （LUCCs） have links to both human and nature inter- actions. China＇s Land-Use/cover Datasets （CLUDs） were updated regularly at 5-year inter- vals from the late 1980s to 2010, with standard procedures based on Landsat TM／ETM＋ im- ages. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics, differences, and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as fol- lows. Land-use changes （LUCs） across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years （1990-2010）. The area of cropland change de- creased in the south and increased in the north, but the total area remained almost un- changed. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly, were mainly distributed in the east, and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first, and then increased, but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included （1） an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the southeastern coastal areas, the midstream area of the Yangtze River, and the Sichuan Basin; （2） shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China; （3） continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields; and （4） effective- ness of the ＂Grain for Green＂ project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia, the Loess Plateau, and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades, although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland, policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century, the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use pat- terns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation. The ＂dynamic regionalization method＂ was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries, the internal characteristics of zones, and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed ＂the pattern of the change process,＂ namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning, variations in unit boundaries, and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the ＂pattern＂ and ＂process＂ of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.     

基于DEM黄土丘陵沟壑区不同尺度流域地貌现状及侵蚀产沙趋势

基于流域DEM对各个集水区进行划分,提取流域沟壑长度、平均高程、平均坡度等信息,并运用EXCEL、SPSS对这些信息进行分析处理,计算出沟壑密度、流域相对高程、面积-高程积分值,并结合流域侵蚀产沙数据以及实地考察情况,借助地貌学的相关理论,分析流域不同区域内、不同尺度流域地貌发育及侵蚀产沙情况.研究发现,流域左右两岸支流的发育数目、形状受邻近流域的影响;面积-高程积分值的大小能反应流域的地貌现状与侵蚀趋势,蛇家沟与岔巴沟的面积-高程积分值分别为0.547 5、0.463 7,但面积-高程积分值的大小及变化趋势还与流域最低点是否达到基岩有关;沟壑发育分为长度发育与宽度发育两个阶段,沟壑密度只是衡量地貌的一个重要指标,沟壑密度对流域侵蚀产沙的影响与沟壑的发育阶段有关;一般情况下产沙模数的大小与流域面积大小没有直接的关系,主要看流域内的地貌的发育阶段.