Better cars or older cars?: Assessing CO2 emission reduction potential of passenger vehicle replacement programs

The primary motivation for the vehicle replacement schemes that were implemented in many countries was to encourage the purchase of new cars. The basic assumption of these schemes was that these acquisitions would benefit both the economy and the environment as older and less fuel-efficient cars were scrapped and replaced with more fuel-efficient models. In this article, we present a new environmental impact assessment method for assessing the effectiveness of scrappage schemes for reducing CO₂ emissions taking into account the rebound effect, driving behavior for older versus new cars and entire lifecycle emissions for during the manufacturing processes of new cars. The assessment of the Japanese scrappage scheme shows that CO₂ emissions would only decrease if users of the scheme retained their new gasoline passenger vehicles for at least 4.7 years. When vehicle replacements were restricted to hybrid cars, the reduction in CO₂ achieved by the scheme would be 6–8.5 times higher than the emissions resulting from a scheme involving standard, gasoline passenger vehicles. Cost–benefit analysis, based on the emission reduction potential, showed that the scheme was very costly. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Japanese government failed to determine the optimum, or target, car age for scrapping old cars in the scheme. Specifically, scrapping cars aged 13 years and over did not maximize the environmental benefits of the scheme. Consequently, modifying this policy to include a reduction in new car subsidies, focused funding for fuel-efficient cars, and modifying the target car age, would increase environmental benefits.     

Modeling strategy for jointed rock masses reinforced by rock bolts in tunneling practice

This paper deals with the modeling of jointed rock masses reinforced by rock bolts. It is well known that rock bolts are extremely effective in reinforcing jointed rocks. However, if a continuum approach is adopted for modeling jointed rock masses, it is often misleading to evaluate the effectiveness of the rock bolts by numerical analyses such as the finite element method. This may be due to the fact that since no more joints exist in the continuum, the effectiveness of the rock bolts in constraining the relative displacements along the joints cannot be evaluated properly. In order to investigate the reinforcement effect of rock bolts, physical model tests were performed in the laboratory. The test results revealed that jointed rock masses should be modeled as an equivalent continuum after the installation of rock bolts and that the mechanical parameters of the equivalent continuum should be evaluated by considering the reinforcement effect of the rock bolts. Therefore, the values of the mechanical parameters differ from place to place in accordance with the relation between joint orientation and rock bolt direction, even though joint systems are homogeneous. In conclusion, in the continuum approach for modeling jointed rock masses, it should be emphasized that rock bolts and jointed rock masses should not be modeled separately but should be modeled simultaneously by considering the reinforcement effect of the rock bolts in constraining joint movement. The modeling of shotcrete reinforced by steel ribs is also discussed in comparison to the modeling by rock bolts.     

Anguilar momentum transport by tidal acoustic wave

We give an analytic expression of the braking torque on a Jacobian ellipsoid rotating steadily in an environmental gas, based on the assumption that the ellipsoid rotates around its shortest principal axis with an angular momentum slightly larger than that at the bifurcation point of the Maclaurin spheroid. This braking torque is effected by the gravitational interaction between the ellipsoid matter and a spiral density configuration in the environmental gas. This spiral configuration, which we call a tidal acoustic wave, is caused by the zone of silence effect in a supersonic flow. With respect to a coordinates system rotating with the ellipsoid, a supersonic region appears outside a certain radius. In this supersonic region, the effect of the non-axisymmetric fluctuation in the ellipsoid potential propagates only along the downstream branches of the Mach waves. This one-sided response of the supersonic part causes the tidal acoustic wave. We restrict ourselves to the equatorial plane, and use an acoustic approximation of the basic equations under the assumption that the self-gravity effect of the environmental gas is negligible in comparison to the main gravity of the ellipsoid. The results are applied to the pre- and post-Main Sequence phases of a rotating star, and relating astrophysical problems are discussed.     

On the generation of high-energy particles in solar flares

This paper discusses the relationship between some characteristics of microwave type IV radio bursts and solar cosmic ray protons of MeV energy. It is shown that the peak flux intensity of those bursts is almost linearly correlated with the MeV proton peak flux observed by satellites near the Earth and that protons and electrons would be accelerated simultaneously by a similar mechanism during the explosive phase of solar flares.Brief discussion is given on the propagation of solar cosmic rays in the solar envelope after ejection from the flare regions.     

Back analysis procedures for the interpretation of field measurements in geomechanics

A survey is presented of some recent developments of the numerical techniques for back analysis in the field of geomechanics, with particular reference to tunnelling problems. In the spirit of Terzaghi's observational design method, these techniques are seen as practical tools for interpreting the available field measurements, in order to reduce the uncertainties that in many instances affect the parameters governing the solution of complex geomechanics problems. Both deterministic and probabilistic viewpoints are considered and some significant applications to practical problems are illustrated.     

Oxygen and carbon isotope zonations of wall rocks around the Kamioka Pb---Zn skarn deposits, central Japan: application to prospecting

Mapping of the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of hydrothermally altered wall rocks was conducted during blind ore prospecting for Pb---Zn skarn deposits in the Kamioka mining district, central Japan. The wall rocks consist of heterogeneous rock units. Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios were determined for 35 limestones and 33 silicate rocks from the area around the Mozumi deposit (3 km × 3 km) in the Kamioka mining district. The results (δ¹⁸O_spsmow of − 1.1 to + 17.3% and δ¹³C_sppdb of − 5.0 to +4.8% for limestones, and δ¹⁸O_spsmow of −0.8 to + 12.5% for silicate rocks) show isotope zonations of the wall rocks, with lighter isotopic compositions toward the center of mineralization. The isotope zonations likely formed by interaction of thermal waters with the wall rocks during skarn mineralization. The isotopically light zone indicates a higher paleotemperature or higher water-to-rock ratios, and occurs in the footwall of the 7Gohi fault. This structure is spatially related to the distribution of orebodies, indicating that the fault was the main conduit of the ore-forming fluids. The oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of limestones vary regularly across limestone bodies hosted by the silicate wall rocks, suggesting that the thermal waters were pervasive throughout the wall rocks at the time of mineralization.An isotopically light zone was also found in the southeastern corner of the study area, where significant mineralization had yet to be identified. This suggested an extension of the extinct hydrothermal system to this area, and the possibility of hidden orebodies underneath. Recent drilling in this area has intercepted a zone 45 m thick with a grade of 13.4% Zn, 0.03% Pb and 8 g per metric ton at about 380 m depth.     

A comparative approach to modelling multiple urban land use changes using tree-based methods and cellular automata: the case of Greater Tokyo Area

Urban multiple land use change (LUC) modelling enables the realistic simulation of LUC processes in complex urban systems; however, such modelling suffers from technical challenges posed by complicated transition rules and high spatial heterogeneity when predicting the LUC of a highly developed area. Tree-based methods are powerful tools for addressing this task, but their predictive capabilities need further examination. This study integrates tree-based methods and cellular automata to simulate multiple LUC processes in the Greater Tokyo Area. We examine the predictive capability of 4 tree-based models – bagged trees, random forests, extremely randomised trees (ERT) and bagged gradient boosting decision trees (bagged GBDT) – on transition probability prediction for 18 land use transitions derived from 8 land use types. We compare the predictive power of a tree-based model with multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and among themselves. The results show that tree-based models generally perform better than MLP, and ERT significantly outperforms the three other tree-based models. The outstanding predictive performance of ERT demonstrates the advantages of introducing bagging ensemble and a high degree of randomisation into transition probability modelling. In addition, through variable importance evaluation, we found the strongest explanatory powers of neighbourhood characteristics for all land use transitions; however, the size of the impacts depends on the neighbourhood land use type and the neighbourhood size. Furthermore, socio-economic and policy factors play important roles in transitions ending with high-rise buildings and transitions related to industrial areas.     

Rocket observation of the EUV images of a solar flare and active regions

Images of a flare and active regions were obtained in the extreme ultraviolet emission lines such as CIII 977 Å, Ne VIII 770 Å, and HI L, and hydrogen Lyman continua with a spatial resolution of less than ten seconds of arc together with one-dimensional scanning at 1650 Å. A microchannel plate was used as a detector, and pointing accuracy was, for about half of the observation time, around 0.5 arc sec.The relationship between the shape of the flare and the structure of the photospheric magnetic field is discussed. A map of the electron temperature distribution derived from the intensity ratio of the Lyman continua at 880 Å and 815 Å showed a lower temperature in regions of higher activity. A very small geometrical thickness of 50–500 m in the C III emitting region of the flare was found. And the layer emitting the continuum in 1650 Å is shown to be at a temperature of 5300 K in the flare and 4700 K in active regions.