贵州省降雨型滑坡预警预报模型2020年应用检验分析

基于概率拟合曲线的贵州省降雨型滑坡预警预报模型,利用降水预报数据和实况数据对2020年强降水背景下的27次降雨型滑坡事件进行预警预报,从两个方面检验了该模型的业务实用性。结果表明：利用降水预报数据开展降雨型滑坡预警预报,提前3 d和提前1 d的效果优于提前2 d,其准确率均为63%,具有一定的业务实用性;利用降水实况数据开展降雨型滑坡预警预报,滑坡实际发生的位置与模型预警预报中可能性较大以上的区域吻合度较高,进一步验证该模型具有一定的准确性和实用性;能否准确把握降水强度和落区是影响降雨型滑坡预警预报准确率的关键因素。     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

Crude-oil hydrocarbon composition characteristics and oil viscosity prediction in the northern Songliao Basin

Crude oil hydrocarbon composition characteristics and oil viscosity prediction are important bases in petroleum exploration.A total of 54 oil/heavy-oil samples and 17 oil sands were analyzed and quantified using both comprehensive 2D gas chromatography(GC×GC)and comprehensive 2D gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry(GC×GC/TOFMS).The results show that crude oil in the West slope is mainly heavy oil and its hydrocarbon composition is characterized overall by paraffinsmono-aromaticsnaphthenesnon-hydrocarbonsdi-aromaticstri-aromaticstetra-aromatics.Aromatics are most abundant and non-hydrocarbons are least abundant,whilst content differences among paraffins,naphthenes,aromatics,and non-hydrocarbons are less than 15%.There are two types of heavy oil,secondary type and mixing type.Biodegradation is the main formation mechanism of heavy oil.Biodegradation levels cover light biodegradation,moderate biodegradation,and severe biodegradation.With increasing biodegradation,paraffin content decreases while contents of aromatics and nonhydrocarbons increase.In contrast,naphthene content increases first and then decreases with increasing biodegradation.In severe biodegradation stage,naphthenes decrease more quickly than aromatics and non-hydrocarbons.This provides a new method for studying oil/heavy-oil biodegradation mechanism and biodegradation resistance of different hydrocarbons at different biodegradation stages.In the Longhupao-Daan terrace and Qijia-Gulong depression,most crude oil is conventional oil.Its composition is dominated by paraffins with the lowest content of aromatics.In some casual oil wells from the Longhupao-Daan terrace,crude oil from Saertu oil reservoirs is moderately biodegraded whereas crude oil from Putaohua oil reservoir is lightly biodegraded.Chemical parameters using saturate hydrocarbons and aromatics are usually not suitable for determining organic type and thermal maturity of biodegraded oil,especially of moderately or severely biodegraded oil,whilst Ts/(Ts+Tm)ratio can be used to determine thermal maturity of both conventional crude oil and heavy oil.     

渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌特征及控制因素

通过研究浅层地震剖面、侧扫声纳和水深地形等数据资料,得出,曹妃甸沙岛的岬角地貌引起深槽海域局部潮流流速增大,甸头前沿深槽区以冲刷为主,最大水深达42 m,刷新了渤海湾最大水深记录,深槽部位的侵蚀量最大,深槽南坡冲刷幅度大于北坡,工程建设后期深槽区侵蚀冲刷程度有变小变缓趋势。早期深槽的形成是由于浅部断层受深部构造影响发生阶梯状错断沉陷,海底地层形成古凹槽,但深槽海底地层沉陷速率略大于沉积速率,使得深槽海域长期保持了渤海湾最大的水深环境。初步得出在历史时期曹妃甸深槽经过2万a以上长期存在,深槽的走向经历了南北向-北东向-北西向的转化过程。认为地质构造、古滦河三角洲演变、海洋水动力作用和人类活动等内外营力作用共同控制了曹妃甸海区地貌体系的发育与演化。达到了研究渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌控制因素和深槽的地质演化的目的,为曹妃甸港的规划、运营期维护和未来发展提供科学依据具有重要意义。     

甲壳动物造血机制研究进展

血细胞是甲壳动物的免疫细胞,可通过吞噬、包囊、结节、黑化,以及分泌免疫活性分子等方式杀死和清除入侵的病原体。活跃的造血机能对更新和补充损耗的循环血细胞、维持一个稳定有效的免疫系统是至关重要的。相对脊椎动物而言,人们对包括甲壳动物在内的无脊椎动物的造血机制了解比较有限。本文总结了近年来在甲壳动物造血机制方面的研究进展,主要介绍了血细胞的类型和功能、造血组织的结构和细胞组成、血细胞的分化途径、造血的调控机制,以及相关的细胞模型和体外实验技术等。并在此基础上分析了已有研究存在的缺陷,提出了需要进一步探究的问题。     

迁徙季节水鸟对滨海不同类型湿地的利用——以广西山口红树林自然保护区为例

为了解迁徙季节水鸟在不同滨海湿地中的结构组成和行为特征,于2010年3月、4月、9月、11月和2011年3月,在山口自然保护区及其周边地区对不同滨海湿地类型的水鸟展开调查。结果显示:迁徙季节天然湿地共记录到水鸟6目8科39种,人工湿地有6目9科50种。天然湿地比人工湿地的物种数少,整体数量上,春季人工湿地大于天然湿地,秋季则为天然湿地水鸟数量更多。鹬鸻类在不同滨海湿地类型中觅食行为比例差异显著,在天然湿地中觅食比例达到76.67%,而在人工湿地中则以休息和睡眠等非觅食行为为主。天然湿地是鹬鸻类的重要觅食地,而人工湿地则是鹭类和鹬鸻类的主要休息地。鹭类在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食个体的数量不随潮汐的涨落而相应增减。鹬鸻类随潮汐高度上升,在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食的个体数量减少。山口地区的滨海人工湿地是水鸟在高潮期间天然湿地良好的替代栖息地。     

干旱区内陆河流域生态系统类型及其整治途——以新疆为例

干旱区内陆河流域生态系统类型,可按水资源的形成、转化、消耗、积蓄和排泄,结合地貌和植被划分为山地、水域、人工绿洲、自然绿洲和荒漠五大类型.各类型是在以荒漠为背景情况下,山地为基础,水域为主导,人工绿洲是核心,自然绿洲是屏障.流域生态系统整治途径是:治理山区环境,涵养保持水源;合理利用水源,维护生态稳定;建设人工绿洲,优化生存基地;保护自然绿洲,发挥生态效益;防治荒漠化扩大,减少危害程度.     

基于拓扑一致性的线目标空间冲突检测方法

现有的空间冲突检测方法需要将复杂的空间关系与定义的规则相比较.由于规则的不完备性,这些方法容易漏检或误检.为此,首先分析了拓扑冲突的类型和产生原因;然后以线目标间拓扑冲突为例,研究了线目标间拓扑关系的表达与计算、综合前后线目标间对应关系、拓扑关系的一致性评价方法;最后通过对对应的拓扑关系进行一致性检验,来检测已有方法漏...