考虑历史洪水不确定性的多维联合洪水频率分析

洪水过程由多个特征变量组成,各变量之间存在正相关性,应进行多变量联合分析。但随着变量的增多,在相同样本条件下,多维联合分布具有更大的抽样不确定性。将历史洪水纳入多维联合频率分析,以提升各特征变量边缘分布和Copula函数相关性参数的准确性。以分层Archimedean Copulas函数为基础,构建了考虑历史洪水不确定性的多维联合洪水频率分析层次模型,将多维联合分布分解成为若干个二维Copula函数的多级层叠形式,并结合极大似然法,选用遗传算法求解特征变量边缘分布及各层Copula函数的相关性参数。长江流域宜昌站的应用结果表明,考虑历史洪水不确定性的多维联合洪水频率分析层次模型能够完整地描述整个洪水过程,考虑洪水过程特征变量之间的相关性,也能够有效利用历史洪水,改善样本的代表性,Copula函数的相关性参数符合实测序列峰量之间的相关关系。     

青海天峻新关角隧道涌排水水源识别与量化分析

涌排水严重影响隧道施工与运行安全,查明隧道涌排水的来源,是隧道防水止水重要科学依据.青海天峻新关角隧道南北洞口处的地下水排水量分别为10021,60877 m3/d,两者存在近50000 m3/d的差异,涌排水量大,且来源不明.基于水文地质条件分析,分别采集了新关角隧道隧址区内大气降水、不同类型地下水和隧道出口涌排水水...     

油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式的研究方法及其应用

为了研究含油气盆地下生上储式油源断裂附近油气分布规律,在不同时期油源断裂输导油气通道及影响因素研究的基础上,通过确定油源断裂伴生裂缝可能发育部位和地层脆性发育部位,识别其活动期输导油气通道。通过断裂填充物泥质含量和填充物输导油气所需的最小泥质含量,识别其停止活动后输导油气通道,二者结合建立了一套油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式的研究方法,并将其应用于渤海湾盆地冀中坳馅廊固凹陷大柳泉地区旧州断裂在沙三中-下亚段内输导油气通道演化形式的研究中,结果表明：旧州断裂在沙三中-下亚段内共发育4种输导通道演化形式,其中一直输导通道演化形式仅分布在F₁断裂东部局部和F₈断裂的东部端部;先输导后不输导通道演化形式主要分布在F₇断裂西部、F₈断裂中西部及东部和F₉断裂处;先不输导后输导通道演化形式主要分布在除东部局部的F₁断裂、F₇断裂的中东部;一直不输导通道演化形式主要分布在F₇断裂中部、F₇断裂和F₈断裂交界处及F₈断裂东部。一直输导和先输导后不输导通道演化形式分布处或附近应是沙三中-下亚段油气成藏的有利部位,与目前旧州断裂附近沙三中-下亚段已发现油气分布相吻合,表明该方法用于研究油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式是可行的。     

Experimental study of surface texture and resonance mechanism of booming sand

The sound-producing mechanism of booming sand has long been a pending problem in the blown sand physics. Based on the earlier researches, the authors collected some silent sand samples from Teng- ger Desert, Australian Desert, Kuwait Desert, beaches of Hainan Island and Japanese coast as well as the soundless booming sand samples from the Mingsha Mountain in Dunhuang to make washing ex- periments. In the meantime the chemical corrosion experiment of glass micro-spheres, surface coating experiment and SEM examination were also conducted. The experimental results show that the sound production of booming sand seems to have nothing to do with the presence of SiO2 gel on the surface of sand grains and unrelated to the surface chemical composition of sand grains but is related to the resonance cavities formed by porous (pit-like) physical structure resulting from a number of factors such as wind erosion, water erosion, chemical corrosion and SiO2 gel deposition, etc. Its resonance mechanism is similar to that of Hemholz resonance cavity. Under the action of external forces, nu- merous spherical and sand grains with smooth surface and porous surface are set in motion and rub with each other to produce extremely weak vibration sound and then become audible sound by human ears through the magnification of surface cavity resonance. However the booming sands may lose their resonance mechanism and become silent sand due to the damping action caused by the invasion of finer particles such as dust and clay into surface holes of sand grains. Therefore, clearing away fine pollutants on the quartz grain surface is an effective way to make silent sand emit audible sound.     

1954年山丹7.3级地震灾害

1954年2月11日,中国西部河西走廊发生山丹7.3级强烈地震,这是建国以来发生在西北地区的第一个大地震。地震造成47人死亡,332人受伤,数万人无家可归;房屋损坏7277间,估计财产损失远高于2003年山丹6.1级地震灾害的直接经济损失。极震区烈度达Ⅺ度,红寺湖盆地、山丹县城破坏最重,山丹地区受灾面积4800km2。本文简要介绍了山丹地震参数、地震烈度及震区环境;重点描述了房屋建筑物破坏,分析了地震灾害特点及其经济损失估计。最后探讨了这次地震震害的成因、防震减灾的经验及其借鉴意义。     

山西数字地震台网单台测定近震震级偏差研究

选用2003年1月～2005年3月山西数字地震台网报告中可交的地震,选取了单台样本数接近和超出100的17个子台数据,从震级偏差频次分布、仪器、量规函数、台基诸因素,对单台震级的影响上作了定量统计和分析,得出仪器影响存在一定的震级负偏差,但不大;量规函数、台基是引起山西台网单台震级偏差的主要原因.本文给出了量规函数和台基校正值,校正之后,单台震级偏差94%(即17个台中除镇川1个)以上震级平均偏差在±0.2之内.这对于提高山西数字地震台网测定近震震级,提高台网速报质量具有极其重要的实际意义.     

800KaB．P．来西藏“一江两河”中游地区的气候与西南季风变化

西藏“一江两河”中游地区风成地层沉积时代、沉积相和磁化率等研究结果表明，早在８００ＫａＢ．Ｐ．前西南季风就已存在，受全球气候波动和青藏高原隆起的影响，其盛行衰变与东南季风具有较好的一致性，主要表现为本区地层所记录的气候变化信息不如东南季风区详细；而且西南季风因高原屏障作用给本区带来的降水愈来愈少，气候明显地向干冷化发展。     

Evolving a core-periphery pattern of manufacturing industries across Chinese provinces

This paper, concerning uneven development in China, empirically analyzes the core-periphery gradient of manufacturing industries across provinces （autonomous regions, municipalities）, and assesses the extent to which these provinces have changed in recent years. Since China＇s reform and opening-up, the spatial structure of the economy has pre- sented a significant core-periphery pattern, the core evidently skewing towards east-coastal areas. With the deepening of market reforms and expansion of globalization, industrial loca- tion is gradually in line with the development advantages of provinces. The core provinces specialize in those industries characterized by strong forward and backward linkages, as well as a high consumption ratio, a high degree of increasing returns to scale, and labor or hu- man-capital intensity. However, it is the opposite with regard to peripheral provinces, in addi- tion, energy intensive industries are gradually concentrating in these areas. To a certain de- gree, the comparative advantage theory and new economic geography identify the underlying forces that determine the spatial distribution of manufacturing industries in China. This paper indicates that the industrialization of regions along different gradients becomes unsynchro- nized will be a long-term trend. Within a certain period, regions are bound to develop indus- trial sectors in line with their respective characteristics and development stage. A core-periphery pattern of industries also indicates that industrial development differentials across regions arise because of not only the uneven distribution of industries but also the inconsistent evolving trends of industrial structure for each province.     

五台山站历史气候资料的均一性分析

介绍了新一代天气雷达实时监测系统的结构模式和功能,通过TCP/IP通信协议的论述、天气雷达信息量和占用信道带宽的估算,证明基于宽带网络系统通信设计的可行性.同时详细分析了CINRAD/SA天气雷达实时监测信息的结构和存放特点,系统地描述天气雷达监测信息获取、传送和入库的方法,并重点介绍如何编制传输和入库软件,利用TCP/IP两种基本协议(TCP和UDP)以及ADO数据库编程技术,在现有的宽带网络基础上,对天气雷达运行状况实现远程实时监测.