可解释性长短期记忆模型用于预测湖泊总磷浓度变化

对湖泊总磷的变化预测和来源识别对水资源调度和流域生态治理有着重要的意义,然而复杂的生化反应和水动力条件导致的非平稳性给湖泊总磷浓度的准确预测带来极大的困难。为克服这一挑战,本文引入了基于加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess,STL)技术和夏普利加法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)构建了一个可解释的预测框架,以增强对湖泊总磷浓度演变的预测并提高其可解释性。研究表明:(1)在骆马湖总磷浓度的预测中,该框架拥有较好的预报精度(R²=0.878),优于LSTM和卷积长短期记忆模型(convolutional neural networks and long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)。当预测时间步长增加到8 h时,该框架有效提高了总磷浓度的预测精度,平均相对误差和均方根误差分别降低了47.1%和33.3%。从预测趋势来看,骆马湖在汛期的总磷平均浓度为0.158 mg/L,相较于非汛期的平均浓度,增加了202.1%。(2)运河来水是骆马湖总磷浓度最重要的影响因素,贡献权重为60.0%,并且不同断面(三湾、三场)的污染源受水动力、气象等因素的影响存在显著的时空差异。本文凸显了神经网络模型在预警水体污染方面的可实施性,并且为提高传统神经网络的学习能力和可解释性的开发与验证提供了重要方向。     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

Seasonal change of ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages in the Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica

The ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages were studied from Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica from April 12 to December 30, 1992. Algal blooms occurred about 3 cm thick on the bottom of sea ice in late April and mid November to early December respectively, and a phytoplankton bloom appeared in the underlying surface water in mid December following the spring ice algal bloom. The biomass in ice bottom was 1 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than that of surface water. Amphiprora kjellmanii, Berkeleya sp., Navicula glaciei, Nitzschia barkelyi, N. cylindrus /N. curta, N. lecointei and Nitzschia sp. were common in the sea ice temporarily or throughout the study period. The biomass in a certain ice segment was decreased gradually and the dominant species were usually succeeded as the season went on. Nitzschia sublineata and Dactyliosolen antarctica were two seasonal dominant species only observed in underlying water column. The assemblages between bottom of ice and underlying surface water were different except when spring ice algae bloomed. The evidence shows that the ice algal blooms occurred mainly by in situ growth of ice algae, and the phytoplankton bloom was mostly caused by the release of ice algae.     

Softs of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic: Part I. Formation processes and pedogenetic particularities

Based on the data obtained from tens of the investigated soil profiles scattered over the Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic, the soil-forming processes were discussed. It was concluded that on the weathering crusts resulted from various physical courses, the strong freeze-thaw action within regolith, significant organic matter accumulation, evident leaching and illuviation, as well as initial argillification dominated the formation and development of the soils on the Fildes Peninsula. Furthermore, this study indicated that the juvenility of genesis, poor profile-expression, variation in column thickness, etc. characterized the pedogenetic features of the soils of the Fildes Peninsula.     

中国及邻区现代构造应力场的数值模拟

我国及邻区的现代构造应力场作为一平面应力问题用有限单元法进行了计算。将本区地壳看成是一不均匀的弹性板,根据各地区杨氏模量E、泊松比v和地壳厚度T的不同,组成12种材料区。全区被分成288个三角形单元。考虑了五种应力和位移边界条件,这些边界条件分别反映了印度洋板块、太平洋板块及菲律宾海板块对我国及邻区施加应力的相对大小。将计算得到的最大剪应力值与强震分布进行对比,将最大主压应力方向与震源机制解的最大主压应力方向进行对比,选择一种和实际符合得最好的边界条件作为可取的模式。结果表明:来自印度洋板块的作用力最大,大约是来自太平洋板块和菲律宾海板块作用力的两倍。     

DEVELOPMENT OF DETENTION VOLUME MODEL FOR DETENTION PONDS WITH LONG-DURATION RAINFALL

The detention pond is one of the crucial items in detention facilities. It may effectively alleviate the occurrence of peak discharge, control the center of flood flow, and reduce the amount of soil loss. The objective of this study is analyzing the detention volume change of a detention pond with long-duration rainfall under the known isosceles trapezoidal inflow hydrograph model. The volume change of detention, which is under the influences of a givenisosceles trapezoidal inflow hydrograph and the extent of peak attenuation, is investigated by using the non-dimensional detention theory and the related mathematical analyses. The minimum detention volume of a detention pond can therefore be calculated based on the estimated of volume change of detention. The proposed detention volume estimation model can be used for the design of detention of facilities during the hillside development.     

Comparison of ecophysiological characteristics between introduced and indigenous mangrove species in China

Due to its rapid growth, the introduced mangrove species Sonneratia apetala from Bangladesh has been widely used in mangrove restoration in southeastern China since 1985. As an indigenous mangrove species in Hainan, China, Sonneratia caseolaris was also planted in Guangdong Province for afforestation purposes. Both species have developed well in their new habitats, but their ecophysiological differences with the native mangrove species have not been studied. In this study, leaf gas exchange, water and nitrogen use efficiencies of two Sonneratia species were compared with those of selected native mangrove species (Avicennia marina, Aegiceras corniculatum, Kandelia candel, and Excoecaria agallocha) in Hainan and Shenzhen. The introduced S. apetala maintained lower carbon assimilation rate (A) and photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE) than the indigenous S. caseolaris. In Shenzhen, the two introduced Sonneratia had comparable photosynthetic rates and water use efficiency (WUE) with the native mangrove species, except that PNUE in S. caseolaris was significantly higher than in the native mangrove species. The two Sonneratia species showed significant overlap in PNUE and long-term WUE. Photosynthetic parameters derived from leaf photosynthetic light–response curves and A–C_i curves also suggested lower carbon assimilation capacities for the introduced Sonneratia than for the native mangrove species in both study sites. The lower light compensation point (LCP) of two introduced Sonneratia in both study sites also indicated a better adaptation to a low light regime than the native mangrove species. The results of photosynthetic capacities indicated that the introduced mangrove species have little competitive advantage over local native mangrove species in their respective new habitats.     

铜陵新桥层状菱铁矿成因的矿物学证据及成矿意义

安徽铜陵新桥矿区二叠系栖霞组底部和石炭系黄龙组—船山组之间产出层状、似层状菱铁矿矿层。开展菱铁矿矿层成因研究对于深入剖析区域层控矽卡岩型铜铁矿床成矿机制具有重要意义。本文利用粉晶X射线衍射（XRD）、扫描电镜（SEM）对菱铁矿矿石进行矿物学研究,结果发现菱铁矿矿石主要由菱铁矿、石英、伊利石和有机质等组成,菱铁矿颗粒粒径较小,表面具有成岩自生的自形石英硬模的微结构,SEM原位微区成分分析显示菱铁矿中除了主量元素铁,还含有大量的锰、锌和钙。矿石中存在两种微结构和不同成因的石英：表面具菱铁矿硬模和次生加大结构的碎屑石英;具六方双锥、单锥以及生物成因球形的自生石英。菱铁矿矿石的组成和矿物表面微结构表明其为沉积成因,非岩浆热液起源。富有机质和亚铁的沉积菱铁矿层和沉积胶状黄铁矿层协同作用,可能是铜陵地区乃至长江中下游成矿带层状铜铁矿床层控性重要制约因素,以及可能作为燕山期中酸岩浆演化的氧化性含铜成矿流体卸载成矿的地球化学还原障。

     

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.