Statistical improvement in detection level of gravitational microlensing events from their light curves

In astronomy,the brightness of a source is typically expressed in terms of magnitude.Conventionally,the magnitude is defined by the logarithm of received flux.This relationship is known as the Pogson formula.For received flux with a small signal to noise ratio(S/N),however,the formula gives a large magnitude error.We investigate whether the use of Inverse Hyperbolic Sine function(hereafter referred to as the Asinh magnitude)in the modified formulae could allow for an alternative calculation of magnitudes for small S/N flux,and whether the new approach is better for representing the brightness of that region.We study the possibility of increasing the detection level of gravitational microlensing using 40 selected microlensing light curves from the 2013 and 2014 seasons and by using the Asinh magnitude.Photometric data of the selected events are obtained from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment(OGLE).We found that utilization of the Asinh magnitude makes the events brighter compared to using the logarithmic magnitude,with an average of about 3.42×10~(-2)magnitude and an average in the difference of error between the logarithmic and the Asinh magnitude of about 2.21×10(-2)magnitude.The microlensing events OB140847 and OB140885 are found to have the largest difference values among the selected events.Using a Gaussian fit to find the peak for OB140847 and OB140885,we conclude statistically that the Asinh magnitude gives better mean squared values of the regression and narrower residual histograms than the Pogson magnitude.Based on these results,we also attempt to propose a limit in magnitude value for which use of the Asinh magnitude is optimal with small S/N data.     

Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA

The study makes a probabilistic assessment of drought risks due to climate change over the southeast USA based on 15 Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and two emission scenarios. The effects of climate change on drought characteristics such as drought intensity, frequency, areal extent, and duration are investigated using the seasonal and continuous standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The GCM data are divided into four time periods namely Historical (1961–1990), Near (2010–2039), Mid (2040–2069), and Late (2070–2099), and significant differences between historical and future time periods are quantified using the mapping model agreement technique. Further, the kernel density estimation approach is used to derive a novel probability-based severity-area-frequency (PBS) curve for the study domain. Analysis suggests that future increases in temperature and evapotranspiration will outstrip increases in precipitation and significantly affect future droughts over the study domain. Seasonal drought analysis suggest that the summer season will be impacted the most based on SPI and SPEI. Projections based on SPI follow precipitation patterns and fewer GCMs agree on SPI and the direction of change compared to the SPEI. Long-term and extreme drought events are projected to be affected more than short-term and moderate ones. Based on an analysis of PBS curves, especially based on SPEI, droughts are projected to become more severe in the future. The development of PBS curves is a novel feature in this study and will provide policymakers with important tools for analyzing future drought risks, vulnerabilities and help build drought resilience. The PBS curves can be replicated for studies around the world for drought assessment under climate change.     

An alternative interpretation for the map expression of “abrupt” changes in lateral stratigraphic level near transverse zones in fold-thrust belts

The map expression of "abrupt" changes in lateral stratigraphic level of a thrust fault has been traditionally interpreted to be a result of the presence of(1) a lateral(or oblique) thrust-ramp,or(2) a frontal ramp with displacement gradient、and/or(3) a combination of these geometries.These geometries have been used to interpret the structures near transverse /ones in fold-thrust belts(FTB).This contribution outlines an alternative explanation that can result in the same map pattern by lateral variations in stratigraphy along the strike of a low angle thrust fault.We describe the natural example of the Leamington transverse zone.which marks the southern margin of the Pennsy lvanian—Permian Oquirrh basin with genetically related lateral stratigraphic variations in the North American Sevier(TB.Thus.the observed map pattern at this zone is closely related to lateral stratigraphic variations along the strike of a horizontal fault.Even though the present-day erosional level shows the map pattern that could be interpreted as a lateral ramp.the observed structures along the Leamington zone most likely share the effects of the presence of a lateral(or oblique) ramp,lateral stratigraphic variations along the fault trace.and the displacement gradient.     

An integrated water balance model for assessing water scarcity in a data-sparse interfluve in eastern India

Abstract

The objective of this study is to measure the balance of water demand versus water resource availability in an interfluve of West Bengal, India to support water resource planning, particularly of inter-basin transfers. Surface water availability was modelled using the US Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) approach, whilst groundwater availability was modelled based on water-level fluctuations and the rainfall infiltration method. Water use was modelled separately for the agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors using a predominantly normative approach and water use to availability ratios calculated for different administrative areas within the interfluve. Overall, the approach suggested that the interfluve receives 327 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 of excess water after satisfying these sectoral demands, but that the eastern part of the study area is in deficit. However, a sensitivity analysis carried on the approach to several assumptions in the model suggested changed circumstances would produce surplus/deficit ranging from ?215 × 10⁶ to 435 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 . The approach could have potential for localised water balance modelling in other Indian catchments.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Potential CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission Due to Loss of Above Ground Biomass from the Indian Sundarban Mangroves During the Last Four Decades

Sundarban, the largest single patch of mangrove forest of the world is shared by Bangladesh (~ 60 %) and India (~ 40 %). Loss of mangrove biomass and subsequent potential emission of carbon dioxide is reported from different parts of the world. We estimated the loss of above ground mangrove biomass and subsequent potential emission of carbon dioxide in the Indian part of the Sundarban during the last four decades. The loss of mangrove area has been estimated with the help of remotely sensed data and potential emission of carbon dioxide has been evaluated with the help of published above ground biomass data of Indian Sundarban. Total loss of mangrove area was found to be 107 km² between the year 1975 and 2013. Amongst the total loss ~60 % was washed away in the water by erosion, ~ 23 % was converted into barren lands and the rest were anthropogenically transformed into other landforms. The potential carbon dioxide emission due to the degradation of above ground biomass was estimated to be 1567.98 ± 551.69 Gg during this period, which may account to 64.29 million $ in terms of the social cost of carbon. About three-forth of the total mangrove loss was found in the peripheral islands which are much more prone to erosion. Climate induced changes and anthropogenic land use change could be the major driving force behind this loss of ‘blue carbon’.