Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia

Natural Hazards - This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included...     

Cryospheric hazards and risk perceptions in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and Buffer Zone,Nepal

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most serious cryospheric hazards for mountain communities. Multiple studies have predicted the potential risks posed by rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and Buffer Zone of Nepal. People’s perceptions of such cryospheric hazards can influence their actions, beliefs, and responses to those hazards and associated risks. This study provides a systematic approach that combines household survey data with ethnography to analyze people’s perceptions of GLOF risks and the socioeconomic and cultural factors influencing their perceptions. A statistical logit model of household data showed a significant positive correlation between the perceptions of GLOF risks and livelihood sources, mainly tourism. Risk perceptions are also influenced by spatial proximity to glacial lakes and whether a village is in potential flood zones. The 2016 emergency remediation work implemented in the Imja Tsho (glacial lake) has served as a cognitive fix, especially in the low-lying settlements. Much of uncertainty and confusions related GLOF risks among locals can be attributed to a disconnect between how scientific information is communicated to the local communities and how government climate change policies have been limited to awareness campaigns and emergency remediation efforts. A sustainable partnership of scientists, policymakers, and local communities is urgently needed to build a science-driven, community-based initiative that focuses not just in addressing a single GLOF threat but develops on a comprehensive cryospheric risk management plan and considers opportunities and challenges of tourism in the local climate adaptation policies.

     

Spatial and temporal variation in the trends of hydrological response of forested watersheds in Thailand

Thailand has undergone significant forest cover changes in recent decades, and this is likely to have altered the hydrological functioning of many watersheds; however, such potential impacts are not fully understood. To contribute towards a better understanding of the potential hydrological impacts of forest cover changes, this study examines the temporal trends of several hydrological indices in eight watersheds of Thailand over the period from 1982 to 2013. A number of hydrological indices (runoff coefficient, baseflow index, flow duration indices, streamflow elasticity, dryness index) were analysed using a combined Thiel–Sen/Mann–Kendall trend-testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that the change in the hydrological response of watersheds varied with the change in structure and composition of forest species. A significant increase in runoff (viz. average flow) was observed in those watersheds covered with natural forests, whereas a significant reduction in runoff (viz. baseflow and low runoff) was observed in those watersheds where the land cover was changed to Para rubber plantations and reforested areas. It is also noteworthy that the watersheds covered by natural forest showed more streamflow elasticity than plantations or reforested areas. These results highlight the importance of considering both forest types/dynamics and watershed characteristics when assessing hydrological impacts.     

HUMAN RELATIONS AND PRIMARY HEALTH CARE DELIVERY IN RURAL NEPAL: THE CASE OF DEURALI *

A preliminary analysis of the primary health care delivery component of a small rural development project in Deurali, Nepal, suggests that personal relations between project personnel and their target population (e.g., implementors'sincerity and commitment to service) can overcome many cultural, geographical, and class-related social barriers to achieving project objectives. The Deurali medical staff's ability to combine their technical skills with sincerity, hard work, and commitment has made the Deurali project reasonably successful in meeting villagers'primary health care needs.     

Optimal selection of representative climate models and statistical downscaling for climate change impact studies: a case study of Rhode Island,USA

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The future climate impact studies rely on future projections obtained from downscaling of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models....     

Distribution,habitat and movement of juvenile smooth hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna zygaena) in northern New Zealand

The smooth hammerhead shark, Sphyrna zygaena, occurs in warm temperate waters around the northern North Island of New Zealand. Commercial fishing records and research trawl survey data were used to determine their distribution. Highest catch rates were recorded in relatively sheltered bays and coastlines along the northeast coast of North Island. Neonate and juvenile sharks use shallow coastal waters and large harbours and estuaries as nursery areas up to an age of two years and total length of 150?cm. Five sharks were electronically tagged but two apparently died and three (137–160?cm total length) returned useful data. Two tagged sharks remained in or near the Bay of Islands for 6–55 days after tagging, moving extensively through the bay. A third shark moved about 155?km southeast in 250 days. That shark spent 70 days mostly shallower than 10?m (94% of time) with occasional dives to 40?m. Thereafter, it oscillated between the surface and depths of 60?80?m, with most time (55%) being spent at 40?60?m. Maximum recorded depth was 144?m.     

Monitoring turbid freshwater plume characteristics by means of remotely sensed data

Remotely sensed data may provide easy access for monitoring the spatial separation and obtaining the hydrodynamic characteristics of turbid freshwater plumes created by river flow in the marine environment. Traditional methods are time consuming and require great effort to produce sufficient data. In this project, integrated research has been carried out on a river to demonstrate the utility of remote sensing (RS) technology for studying fundamental theoretical properties of turbulent mixtures. The Filyos River mouth, located on the Black Sea coast of Turkey, is the research area. Flow properties, such as the horizontal dispersion coefficient, have been calculated (using Landsat TM sensor images taken on two different dates). The effects of the plume on the morphology of neighbouring beaches are also examined. This study shows the utility of RS technology for generating quantitative data and better defining the hydraulic behaviour of a river with high turbidity. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Livelihood diversification as an adaptation approach to change in the pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan（HKH） region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region.     

Mesozoic to Cenozoic tectono‐metamorphic history of the South Pamir–Hindu Kush (Chitral,NW Pakistan): Insights from phase equilibria modelling,and garnet–monazite petrochronology

The Karakoram–Hindu Kush–Pamir and adjacent Tibetan plateau belt comprise a series of Gondwana‐derived crustal fragments that successively accreted to the Eurasian margin in the Mesozoic as the result of the progressive Tethys ocean closure. These domains provide unique insights into the thermal and structural history of the Mesozoic to Cenozoic Eurasian plate margin, which are critical to inform the initial boundary conditions (e.g. crustal thickness, structure and thermo‐mechanical properties) for the subsequent development of the large and hot Tibetan–Himalaya orogen, and the associated crustal deformation processes. Using a combination of microstructural analyses, thermobarometry modelling and U–Th–Pb monazite and Lu–Hf garnet geochronology, the study reappraises the metamorphic history of exposed mid‐crustal metapelites in the Chitral region of the South Pamir–Hindu Kush (NW Pakistan). This study also demonstrates that trace elements in monazite (especially Y and Dy), combined with thermodynamical modelling and Lu–Hf garnet dating, provides a powerful integrated toolbox for constraining long‐lived and polyphased tectono‐metamorphic histories in all their spatial and temporal complexity. Rocks from the Chitral region were progressively deformed and metamorphosed at sub‐ and supra‐solidus conditions through at least four distinct episodes from the Mesozoic to the Cenozoic. Rocks were first metamorphosed at ~400–500°C and ~0.3 GPa in the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic (210–185 Ma), likely in response to the accretion of the Karakoram during the Cimmerian orogeny. Pressure and temperature subsequently increased by ~0.3 GPa and 100°C in the Early‐ to Mid Cretaceous (140–80 Ma), coinciding with the intrusion of calcalkaline granitic plutons across the Karakoram and Pamir regions. This event is interpreted as the record of crustal thickening and the development of a proto‐plateau within the Eurasian margin due to a long‐lived episode of slab flattening in an Andean‐type margin. Peak metamorphism was reached in the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene (40–30 Ma) at conditions of 580–600°C and ~0.6 GPa and 700–750°C and 0.7–0.8 GPa for the investigated staurolite schists and sillimanite migmatites respectively. This crustal heating up to moderate anatexis likely resulted in the underthrusting of the Indian plate after a NeoTethyan slab‐break off or to the Tethyan Himalaya–Lhasa microcontinent collision and subsequent oceanic slab flattening. Near‐isothermal decompression/exhumation followed in the Late Oligocene (28–23 Ma) as marked by a pressure decrease in excess of ~0.1 GPa. This event was coeval with the intrusion of the 24 Ma Garam Chasma leucogranite. This rapid exhumation is interpreted to be related to the reactivation of the South Pamir–Karakoram suture zone during the ongoing collision with India. The findings of this study confirm that significant crustal shortening and thickening of the south Eurasian margin occurred during the Mesozoic in an accretionary‐type tectonic setting through successive episodes of terrane accretions and probably slab flattening, transiently increasing the coupling at the plate interface. Moreover, they indicate that the south Eurasian margin was already hot and thickened prior to Cenozoic collision with India, which has important implications for orogen‐scale strain‐accommodation mechanisms.     

Distribution patterns of medicinal plants along an elevational gradient in central Himalaya, Nepal

This study aimed to compare the distribution patterns and trends of plant parts used among different groups of medicinal plants, geographical regions,and between medicinal plants and all vascular plants.We used the published sources for elevation records of 2,331 medicinal plant species to interpolate presence between minimum and maximum elevations and estimated medicinal plant richness for each 100-m elevational band. Monte Carlo simulations were used to test whether differences in elevational distribution between different groups of medicinal plants were significant. Total number of medicinal plants as well as different groups showed unimodal relationship with elevation. The elevational distributions of medicinal plants significantly differ between regions and between medicinal plant groups.When comparing the richness of all medicinal plants to all vascular plants,Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the numbers of medicinal plants are higher than expected at low elevations.The highest richness of medicinal plants at low elevation could be possibly due to favorable environmental factors such as high temperature, rainfall,sunlight or due to higher density of human population and thus higher pressure on use of any plants in lower elevations.