Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.     

A geo-environmental map for the sustainable development of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

An engineering and environmental geological map of the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal has been elaborated within a project of German-Nepalese cooperation. In the Kathmandu Valley, the major geo-environmental problems arise from haphazard exploitation of geologic resources, local landslide zones, severe problems of garbage disposal, river flooding and a dramatic river pollution. The map was prepared by the use of GIS techniques. It contains all basic geological and environmental data, as geotechnical risk zones (landslide-prone areas or those of poor foundation conditions), areas for preferable extraction of construction material and those not to be allowed to be exploited, areas of immediate need of reforestation in order to prevent landslide or badland development, groundwater protection zones, and suitable garbage disposal sites. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km~2 and average size of 0.06 km~2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km~2 in 1977 to 127.61 km~2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km~2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km~2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km~2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km~2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km~2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km~2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.     

Driftwood deposition from debris flows at slit-check dams and fans

Experience shows that debris flows containing large woody debris (driftwood) can be more damaging than debris flows without driftwood. In this study, the deposition process of debris flows carrying driftwood was investigated using numerical simulations and flume experiments. Debris-flow trapping due to driftwood jamming in a slit-check dam was also investigated. A numerical model was developed with an interacting combination of Eulerian expression of the debris flow and Lagrangian expression of the driftwood, in which the fluctuating coordinates and rotation of the driftwood were treated stochastically. The calculated shapes and thicknesses of a debris-flow fan and the positions and orientations of the deposited driftwood on a debris-flow fan were consistent with experimental flume results. The jamming of driftwood in a slit-check dam was evaluated based on geometry and probability. The simulated results of outflow discharge and the proportion of driftwood passed through the slit-check dam also agreed with the experimental results.     

Delineating and defining the boundaries of an active landslide in the rainforest of Puerto Rico using a combination of airborne and terrestrial LIDAR data

Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) is a remote sensing technique that uses light, often using pulses from a laser to measure the distance to a target. Both terrestrial- and airborne-based LIDAR techniques have been frequently used to map landslides. Airborne LIDAR has the advantage of identifying large scarps of landslides covered by tree canopies and is widely applied in identifying historical and current active landslides hidden in forested areas. However, because landslides naturally have relatively small vertical surface deformation in the foot area, it is practically difficult to identify the margins of landslide foot area with the limited spatial resolution (few decimeters) of airborne LIDAR. Alternatively, ground-based LIDAR can achieve resolution of several centimeters and also has the advantages of being portable, repeatable, and less costly. Thus, ground-based LIDAR can be used to identify small deformations in landslide foot areas by differencing repeated terrestrial laser scanning surveys. This study demonstrates a method of identifying the superficial boundaries as well as the bottom boundary (sliding plane) of an active landslide in National Rainforest Park, Puerto Rico, USA, using the combination of ground-based and airborne LIDAR data. The method of combining terrestrial and airborne LIDAR data can be used to study landslides in other regions. This study also indicates that intensity and density of laser point clouds are remarkably useful in identifying superficial boundaries of landslides.     

Habitat range of two alpine medicinal plants in a trans-Himalayan dry valley, Central Nepal

Understanding of the habitat range of threatened Himalayan medicinal plants which are declining in their abundance due to high anthropogenic disturbances is essential for developing conservation strategies and agrotechnologies for cultivation. In this communication, we have discussed the habitat range of two alpine medicinal plants, Aconitum naviculare （Bruehl） Stapf and Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora （Pennel） Hong in a trans-Himalayan dry valley of central Nepal, Manang district. They are the most prioritized medicinal plants of the study area in terms of ethnomedicinal uses. A. naviculare occurs on warm and dry south facing slopes between 4090-4650 m asl along with sclerophyllous and thorny alpine scrubs, while N. scrophulariiflora is exclusively found on cool and moist north facing slope between 4000 and 4400 m asl where adequate water is available from snow melt to create a suitable habitat for this wetland dependent species. The soil in rooting zone of the two plants differs significantly in organic carbon （OC）, organic matter （OM）, total nitrogen （N） and carbon to nitrogen （C/N） ratio. Due to cool and moist condition of N. scrophulariiflora habitat, accumulation of soil OC is higher, but soil N content is lower probably due to slow release from litter, higher leaching loss and greater retention in perennial live biomass of the plant. The C/N ratio of soil is more suitable in A. navuculare habitat than that of N scrophulariiflora for N supply. Warm and sunny site with N rich soil can be suitable for cultivation ofA. naviculare, while moist and cool site with organic soil for N. scrophulariiflora. The populations of both the plants are fragmented and small. Due to collection by human and trampling damage by livestock, the population of A. naviculare was found absent in open areas in five of the six sampling sites and it was confined only within the bushes of alpine scrubs. For N. serophulariiflora, high probability of complete receding of small glaeiers may be a new threat in future to its habitat. The information about habitat conditions, together with the information from other areas, ean be useful to identify potential habitats and plan for cultivation or domestication of the two medieinal plants.     

The P–T–t evolution of the exhumed Himalayan metamorphic core in the Likhu Khola region,East Central Nepal

The recent identification of multiple strike‐parallel discontinuities within the exhumed Himalayan metamorphic core has helped revise the understanding of convergence accommodation processes within the former mid‐crust exposed in the Himalaya. Whilst the significance of these discontinuities to the overall development of the mountain belt is still being investigated, their identification and characterization has become important for potential correlations across regions, and for constraining the kinematic framework of the mid‐crust. The result of new phase equilibria modelling, trace element analysis and high‐precision Lu–Hf garnet dating of the metapelites from the Likhu Khola region in east central Nepal, combined with the previously published monazite petrochronology data confirms the presence of one of such cryptic thrust‐sense tectonometamorphic discontinuities within the lower portion of the exhumed metamorphic core and provides new constraints on the P–T estimates for that region. The location of the discontinuity is marked by an abrupt change in the nature of P–T–t paths of the rocks across it. The rocks in the footwall are characterized by a prograde burial P–T path with peak metamorphic conditions of ~660°C and ~9.5 kbar likely in the mid‐to‐late Miocene, which are overlain by the hanging wall rocks, that preserve retrograde P–T paths with P–T conditions of >700°C and ~7 kbar in the early Miocene. The occurrence of this thrust‐sense structure that separates rock units with unique metamorphic histories is compatible with orogenic models that identify a spatial and temporal transition from early midcrustal deformation and metamorphism in the deeper hinterland to later deformation and metamorphism towards the shallower foreland of the orogen. Moreover, these observations are comparable with those made across other discontinuities at similar structural levels along the Himalaya, confirming their importance as important orogen‐scale structures.     

A first estimate of ground water ages for the deep aquifer of the Kathmandu Basin, Nepal, using the radioisotope chlorine-36

The Kathmandu Basin in Nepal contains up to 550 m of Pliocene-Quaternary fluvio-lacustrine sediments which have formed a dual aquifer system. The unconfined sand and gravel aquifer is separated by a clay aquitard, up to 200 m thick, from the deeper, confined aquifer, comprised of Pliocene sand and gravel beds, intercalated with clay, peat, and lignite. The confined aquifer currently provides an important water supply to the central urban area but there are increasing concerns about its sustainability due to overexploitation. A limited number of determinations of the radioisotope 36Cl have been made on bore waters in the basin, allowing us to postulate on the age of ground water in the deeper, confined aquifer. Ground water evolution scenarios based on radioisotope decay, gradual dissolution of formational salts as the ground waters move downgradient, and flow velocity estimations produce comparable ground water ages for the deep waters, ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 years. From these ages, we deduce a mean ground water flow velocity of only 45 mm/year from recharge in the northeast to the main extraction region 15 km to the southwest. We thus estimate current recharge at about 5 to 15 mm/year, contributing 40,000 to 1.2 million m3/year to the ground water system. Current ground water extraction is estimated to be 20 times this amount. The low specific discharge confirms that the resource is being mined, and, based on current projections, reserves will be used up within 100 years.     

Interannual variation of summer monsoon rainfall over Nepal and its relation to Southern Oscillation Index

Summary ?Nepal, lying in the southern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau receives about 80% of the total annual rainfall during summer monsoon (June–September). Rainfall analysis shows that summer monsoon is more active in the southern part of Nepal but in the high Himalayas and Trans-Himalayan region other weather systems like western disturbances are also as effective as monsoon in giving rainfall. The influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) in Nepal monsoon rainfall is found to be very significant. The years with significant negative (positive) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have less (more) rainfall in most of the cases during the 32-year period. This relationship is also found to vary with time. The years with deficient rainfall are associated most of the times with negative departure of SOI and the composite chart during these occasions shows about 95% area of Nepal experiencing below normal rainfall. Likewise at the time of positive departure of SOI, most of the region (94%) experienced above normal rainfall. There is a good relation between SOI and rainfall over Nepal during monsoon. The correlation coefficient between Nepal monsoon rainfall and monthly SOI shows a statistically significant in-phase relationship during and after monsoon but poor relation during the months prior to monsoon season. These results suggest that monsoon plays an active and effective role on the interannual variability including SOI. Received December 28, 1999/Revised May 22, 2000