Assessment of radionuclide transport uncertainty in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain

The present study assesses the uncertainty of flow and radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain using a Monte Carlo method. Matrix permeability, porosity, and sorption coefficient are considered random. Different from previous studies that assume distributions of the parameters, the distributions are determined in this study by applying comprehensive transformations and rigorous statistics to on-site measurements of the parameters. The distribution of permeability is further adjusted based on model calibration results. Correlation between matrix permeability and porosity is incorporated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. After conducting 200 Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional unsaturated flow and radionuclide transport for conservative and reactive tracers, the mean, variances, and 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles for quantities of interest (e.g., matrix liquid saturation and water potential) are evaluated. The mean and 50th percentile are used as the mean predictions, and their associated predictive uncertainties are measured by the variances and the 5th and 95th percentiles (also known as uncertainty bounds). The mean predictions of matrix liquid saturation and water potential are in reasonable agreement with corresponding measurements. The uncertainty bounds include a large portion of the measurements, suggesting that the data variability can be partially explained by parameter uncertainty. The study illustrates propagation of predictive uncertainty of percolation flux, increasing downward from repository horizon to water table. Statistics from the breakthrough curves indicate that transport of the reactive tracer is delayed significantly by the sorption process, and prediction on the reactive tracer is of greater uncertainty than on the conservative tracer because randomness in the sorption coefficient increases the prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in radionuclide transport is related to uncertainty in the percolation flux, suggesting that reducing the former entails reduction in the latter.     

Equatorial coronal arches and geomagnetic disturbance

Central-meridian passage of coronal equatorial arches is followed, statistically, after about 7 days by geomagnetic disturbance. Sector-boundary crossings at Earth are most likely to occur 5 days after arch CMP, while metric noise sources cluster at the location of the arches. This agrees with the location of the noise sources relative to sector boundaries described by Sakurai and Stone (1971), rather than with that found by Martres et al. (1970) for 1964 and 1966, and may indicate evolution of the relation between coronal and interplanetary structure. We looked for, but did not find, clustering of coronal arches at a particular phase of the Olsen rotation scheme.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Axial rotation, orbital revolution and solar spin–orbit coupling

The orbital motion of the Sun has been linked with solar variability, but the underlying physics remains unknown. A coupling of the solar axial rotation and the barycentric orbital revolution might account for the relationships found. Some recent published studies addressing the physics of this problem have made use of equations from rotational physics in order to model particle motions. However, our standard equations for rotational velocity do not accurately describe particle motions due to orbital revolution. The Sun's orbital motion is a state of free fall; in consequence, aside from very small tidal motions, the associated particle velocities do not vary as a function of position on or within the body of the Sun. In this note, I describe and illustrate the fundamental difference between particle motions in rotation and revolution, in order to dispel some part of the confusion that has arisen in the past and that which may yet arise in the future. This discussion highlights the principal physical difficulty that must be addressed and overcome by future dynamical spin–orbit coupling hypotheses.     

Coronal disturbances

A fast coronal transient event was observed simultaneously on 17 February 1972 by the Sacramento Peak Observatory 6-in. λ 5303 filter coronagraph and the High Altitude Observatory K-coronameter. We interpret the rapid opening of green line structure cospatial with the disappearance of a white light streamer as material motion of iron ions and electrons. Together with the subsequent two-fold increase in K-corona brightness in an adjacent region, this is taken as evidence of a transference of electrons to a new streamer in a realignment of magnetic flux tubes accompanying a flare.     

A relative sea-level history for Arviat,Nunavut, and implications for Laurentide Ice Sheet thickness west of Hudson Bay

Thirty-six new and previously published radiocarbon dates constrain the relative sea-level history of Arviat on the west coast of Hudson Bay. As a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) following deglaciation, sea level fell rapidly from a high-stand of nearly 170 m elevation just after 8000 cal yr BP to 60 m elevation by the mid Holocene (~ 5200 cal yr BP). The rate of sea-level fall decreased in the mid and late Holocene, with sea level falling 30 m since 3000 cal yr BP. Several late Holocene sea-level measurements are interpreted to originate from the upper end of the tidal range and place tight constraints on sea level. A preliminary measurement of present-day vertical land motion obtained by repeat Global Positioning System (GPS) occupations indicates ongoing crustal uplift at Arviat of 9.3 ± 1.5 mm/yr, in close agreement with the crustal uplift rate inferred from the inferred sea-level curve. Predictions of numerical GIA models indicate that the new sea-level curve is best fit by a Laurentide Ice Sheet reconstruction with a last glacial maximum peak thickness of ~ 3.4 km. This is a 30–35% thickness reduction of the ICE-5G ice-sheet history west of Hudson Bay.     

Hydrological shifts and tree growth responses to river modification along the Apalachicola River,Florida

Shifts in the hydrologic regime of Florida’s Apalachicola River have been attributed to anthropogenic changes throughout its watershed, including local dam construction. To assess impacts of those shifts on floodplain forests, we reconstructed tree growth using dendrochronology and compared these trends with hydrological and climatic variables. Comparisons of stream-gage data before and after dam construction on the Apalachicola River revealed statistically significant mean declines in annual average stage. Mean minimum annual stages, rise rates, and fall rates also decreased, while hydrograph reversals increased. Growth in four tree species correlated strongly with site-specific inundation parameters. A wetter climate in the two decades following dam construction and fine-scale fluctuation of the hydrograph may have set the stage for positive growth releases. Logging and hurricane wind throw events may have also contributed. However, drier conditions in the last two decades are now exacerbated by stage-discharge declines that had been masked previously. Tree growth rates and recruitment have decreased and, in the absence of a major disturbance, the forest canopy is composed of an older cohort of individuals. Our findings highlight how hydrograph variability, climate change, and vegetation disturbance are all relevant for gaging and anticipating the range of impacts of river modification on floodplain forests.     

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1 ×0.1 latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.     

Ground water recharge and flow characterization using multiple isotopes

Stable isotopes of delta(18)O, delta(2)H, and (13)C, radiogenic isotopes of (14)C and (3)H, and ground water chemical compositions were used to distinguish ground water, recharge areas, and possible recharge processes in an arid zone, fault-bounded alluvial aquifer. Recharge mainly occurs through exposed stream channel beds as opposed to subsurface inflow along mountain fronts. This recharge distribution pattern may also occur in other fault-bounded aquifers, with important implications for conceptualization of ground water flow systems, development of ground water models, and ground water resource management. Ground water along the mountain front near the basin margins contains low delta(18)O, (14)C (percent modern carbon [pmC]), and (3)H (tritium units [TU]), suggesting older recharge. In addition, water levels lie at greater depths, and basin-bounding faults that locally act as a flow barrier may further reduce subsurface inflow into the aquifer along the mountain front. Chemical differences in ground water composition, attributed to varying aquifer mineralogy and recharge processes, further discriminate the basin-margin and the basin-center water. Direct recharge through the indurated sandstones and mudstones in the basin center is minimal. Modern recharge in the aquifer is mainly through the broad, exposed stream channel beds containing coarse sand and gravel where ground water contains higher delta(18)O, (14)C (pmC), and (3)H (TU). Spatial differences in delta(18)O, (14)C (pmC), and (3)H (TU) and occurrences of extensive mudstones in the basin center suggest sluggish ground water movement, including local compartmentalization of the flow system.