Stability of a numerical scheme for methane transport in hydrate zone under equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions

In this paper we carry out numerical analysis for a family of simplified gas transport models with hydrate formation and dissociation in subsurface, in equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. These models are adequate for simulation of hydrate phase change at basin and at shorter time scales, but the analysis does not account directly for the related effects of evolving hydraulic properties. To our knowledge this is the first analysis of such a model. It is carried out for the transport steps while keeping the pressure solution fixed. We frame the transport model as conservation law with a non-smooth space-dependent flux function; the kinetic model approximates this equilibrium. We prove weak stability of the upwind scheme applied to the regularized conservation law. We illustrate the model, confirm convergence with numerical simulations, and illustrate its use for some relevant equilibrium and non-equilibrium scenarios.

     

Hydrograph characteristics of quick and slow runoffs of a watershed outlet,Taiwan

This study explores the hydrograph characteristics of quick and slow runoffs in watershed outlet hydrographs. The quick and slow runoffs were modelled using a conceptual model of three linear cascade reservoirs that have exponential decay response expressions. Mean rainfall for model inputs was estimated using the block Kriging method. The 107 storms during the 1966–2008 events were classified as large, medium and small events according to the observed streamflow. The optimal hydrograph parameters for 61 rainfall‐runoff events were calibrated using the shuffled complex evolution optimal algorithm. The efficacy of the model was verified using the seven averaged parameters of three types of 46 events and was compared with three evaluation criteria resulting from the Nash model. The 61 calibrations were used to analyse and compare the characteristics of quick and slow flows in early and later periods (1966–2002 and 2003–2008). Finally, the following five conclusions were obtained: (1) The base time of a slow runoff hydrograph is the same as that of a total runoff hydrograph. (2) A quick runoff with a long period occurs when soil antecedent moisture is low and with a short period under a high value. (3) The time to peak of hydrograph components is directly proportional to peak time of a hyetograph; the time to peak of quick and slow flows is about 0·97 and 1·12 times the peak time of a hyetograph, respectively. (4) The peak of hydrograph components is relative to a total runoff hydrograph; the percentages for quick runoff are approximately 71% and 13% for slow flow. Finally, (5) the volume of a quick runoff component is 49% of a total runoff volume and 37% for a slow runoff volume. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake and rain induced rapid landslides and its application to the 2006 Leyte landslide

A gigantic rapid landslide claiming over 1,000 fatalities was triggered by rainfalls and a small nearby earthquake in the Leyte Island, Philippines in 2006. The disaster presented the necessity of a new modeling technology for disaster risk preparedness which simulates initiation and motion. This paper presents a new computer simulation integrating the initiation process triggered by rainfalls and/or earthquakes and the development process to a rapid motion due to strength reduction and the entrainment of deposits in the runout path. This simulation model LS-RAPID was developed from the geotechnical model for the motion of landslides (Sassa 1988) and its improved simulation model (Sassa et al. 2004b) and new knowledge obtained from a new dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (Sassa et al. 2004a). The examination of performance of each process in a simple imaginary slope addressed that the simulation model well simulated the process of progressive failure, and development to a rapid landslide. The initiation process was compared to conventional limit equilibrium stability analyses by changing pore pressure ratio. The simulation model started to move in a smaller pore pressure ratio than the limit equilibrium stability analyses because of progressive failure. However, when a larger shear deformation is set as the threshold for the start of strength reduction, the onset of landslide motion by the simulation agrees with the cases where the factor of safety estimated by the limit equilibrium stability analyses equals to a unity. The field investigation and the undrained dynamic loading ring shear tests on the 2006 Leyte landslide suggested that this landslide was triggered by the combined effect of pore water pressure due to rains and a very small earthquake. The application of this simulation model could well reproduce the initiation and the rapid long runout motion of the Leyte landslide.     

Holocene environmental changes on the east coast of Korea

We present a record of Holocene environmental change on the east coast of Korea, inferred using pollen, carbon-isotopic composition (??¹³C), total organic carbon, total sulfur, carbon/nitrogen ratios, particle size analysis and major element geochemistry in a sediment core from Soonpogae Lagoon. A multi-proxy paleoenvironmental approach had not previously been applied in Korea and allowed us to reconstruct climate and vegetation change, sea-level rise, lagoon development, and human impact on the east coast of Korea over the last 8,000?years. Evidence from Soonpogae Lagoon supports the following three conclusions: (1) As a drying trend prevailed on the east coast of Korea after ~5,900?cal?yr BP, chemical weathering weakened and herbaceous plants became more important than during the previous humid phase (Holocene Climate Optimum), (2) Sea-level rise on the east coast slowed dramatically about 6,800?cal?yr BP, resulting in low rates of sedimentation in Soonpogae Lagoon, and (3) Soonpogae Lagoon was almost completely isolated from the sea by sand barriers when human impact intensified ~2,100 BP.     

Effects of tidally induced eddies on sporadic Kuroshio-water intrusion (kyucho)

The sudden intrusion of Kuroshio warm water into the Bungo Channel (kyucho) occurs mainly at neap tides during summer, suggesting that tidal mixing is one of the essential factors regulating kyucho. In order to clarify the physical mechanisms responsible for the regulation of kyucho, we carry out non-hydrostatic three-dimensional numerical experiments allowing Kuroshio warm water to intrude into a strong tidal mixing region. It is shown that the Kuroshio warm water can (or cannot) pass through the tidal mixing regions off the east coast of the Bungo Channel during neap (or spring) tides. The analysis of the dynamic balance off the east coast of the Bungo Channel shows that tidal residual currents generated by tidal flow interaction with complicated land configurations off the east coast of the Bungo Channel can also play an important role in regulating kyucho. In order to assess separately the effects of tidal mixing and tidal residual currents on kyucho, we incorporate the parameterized vertical mixing and tidal stresses into the numerical model instead of tidal currents. It is demonstrated that tidal mixing cannot by itself block the northward intrusion of Kuroshio warm water, and that an additional effect induced by tidal residual eddies equivalent to horizontal mixing is needed to regulate kyucho. This strongly suggests that the basin–ocean water exchange processes in areas with complicated land configurations can only be reproduced by taking into account the effects of tidal residual eddies on a 1-km scale in addition to tidal mixing effects evaluated by microstructure measurements.     

Reinforcement and Arching Effect of Geogrid-Reinforced and Pile-Supported Embankment on Marine Soft Ground

The effectiveness of constructing a geogrid-reinforced and pile supported embankment on soft ground to reduce differential settlement has been studied by pilot scale field tests and numerical analysis. Three-by-three pile groups with varying pile spacing were driven into a layer of soft ground, and a layer of geogrid was used as reinforcement over each pile group. Further, a 2-D numerical analysis has been conducted using the computer program FLAC 2D. The mechanisms of load transfer can be considered as a combination of embankment soil arching, geogrid tension, and stress transfer due to the difference in stiffness between pile and soft ground. Based on the pilot scale field tests and results of numerical analysis, we find that the geosynthetic reinforcement slightly interferes with soil arching, and helps reduce differential settlement of the soft ground. Also, the most effective load transfer and vertical stress reduction at the midspan between piles occurs when the pile cap spacing index D/b (D: pile cap spacing, b: diameter of pile) is 3.0.     

Seasonal variations in the low-salinity intermediate water in the region south of sub-polar front of the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Seasonal variations in the low-salinity intermediate water (ESIW) in the region south of the sub-polar front of the East Sea were investigated by using historical hydrographic data. The salinity of the representative density (sigma-0=27.2) of the ESIW was minimal in summer and maximal in winter in the region south of the sub-polar front. The selected four subregions showed different salinity variations. In the west of Oki Spur and the Yamato Basin, salinity fluctuated similarly, with a minimum during summer. In the Ulleung Basin and northwest of Sado Island, however, variations in salinity showed two minima, one is in winter and the other is in summer. These results imply differences in the flow path of the ESIW into the region south of the sub-polar front over time.     

Downscaling large-scale NCEP CFS to resolve fine-scale seasonal precipitation and extremes for the crop growing seasons over the southeastern United States

Seasonally predicted precipitation at a resolution of 2.5° was statistically downscaled to a fine spatial scale of ~20 km over the southeastern United States. The downscaling was conducted for spring and summer, when the fine-scale prediction of precipitation is typically very challenging in this region. We obtained the global model precipitation for downscaling from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System (NCEP/CFS) retrospective forecasts. Ten member integration data with time-lagged initial conditions centered on mid- or late February each year were used for downscaling, covering the period from 1987 to 2005. The primary techniques involved in downscaling are Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis, multiple regression, and stochastic time series generation. Trained with observations and CFS data, CSEOF and multiple regression facilitated the identification of the statistical relationship between coarse-scale and fine-scale climate variability, leading to improved prediction of climate at a fine resolution. Downscaled precipitation produced seasonal and annual patterns that closely resemble the fine resolution observations. Prediction of long-term variation within two decades was improved by the downscaling in terms of variance, root mean square error, and correlation. Relative to the coarsely resolved unskillful CFS forecasts, the proposed downscaling drove a significant reduction in wet biases, and correlation increased by 0.1–0.5. Categorical predictability of seasonal precipitation and extremes (frequency of heavy rainfall days), measured with the Heidke skill score (HSS), was also improved by the downscaling. For instance, domain averaged HSS for two category predictability by the downscaling are at least 0.20, while the scores by the CFS are near zero and never exceed 0.1. On the other hand, prediction of the frequency of subseasonal dry spells showed limited improvement over half of the Georgia and Alabama region.     

Paleoenvironmental analysis of the Mawaki archaeological site,central Japan,in relation to the stratigraphic position of dolphin bones

In order to elucidate the paleoenvironment associated with the early Holocene Mawaki archaeological site on the Noto Peninsula of central Japan, a high‐resolution stratigraphic study was conducted of 17 boreholes drilled at the archaeological site. We selected three boreholes for which lithological and/or chronological data are reported. Initial magnetic susceptibility was utilized for correlation of clastic core samples with the assistance of 26 radiocarbon dates. Four lithological units (A, B, C, and D in ascending order) were identified and interpreted as a sequence in a cycle of marine transgression and regression. Dated coastal horizons were chosen to indicate former sea levels. A Holocene relative sea level curve was generated on the basis of the geological data, and a rapid rise from 8000cal. yr B.P. to 7000cal. yr B.P. and a succeeding minor sea level fall represent the basic eustatic trend around the Sea of Japan because hydroisostatic and tectonic effects are moderate in the study area. Abundant dolphin bones lay just above the top of the marine sequence (boundary between Units C and D), located in the seashore environment. Cultural artifacts are found in a subaerial deposit (Unit D) near the dolphin bone level that is assigned to a period of high, stable sea level after the post‐glacial eustatic highstand. Dolphin bones are associated with stone artifacts (arrowheads, knives, and scrapers) and ritual wood columns, indicating the presence of a longstanding fishery during the early Holocene on the Sea of Japan coast. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Optical Characteristics of the Soft X-Ray Telescope Aboard <Emphasis Type="Italic">Yohkoh</Emphasis>

We have studied the point spread function (PSF) of the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) using the pre-launch calibration data. It is revealed from our study that both a careful consideration on the undersampling effect and a proper choice of statistics are indispensable for determining the best fit analytical function for the SXT PSF. We present the results of numerical simulations supporting our approach toward proper handling of the undersampled PSF. Examples of the derived SXT PSF using a limited number of pre-launch calibration data are shown as a case study.