Probabilistic forecasting of drought: a hidden Markov model aggregated with the RCP 8.5 precipitation projection

The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought’s effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, we proposed a new probabilistic scheme to forecast droughts that used a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) with a 3-month time scale was employed to represent the drought status over the selected stations in South Korea. The new scheme used a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference on the model parameters and performed an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to perform a probabilistic forecast of SPI at the 3-month time scale that considered uncertainties. The point forecasts which were derived as the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, were much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times. We also used probabilistic forecast verification and found that the HMM-RCP provided a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought categories, even at long lead times. In a drought event analysis, the HMM-RCP accurately predicted about 71.19 % of drought events during the validation period and forecasted the mean duration with an error of less than 1.8 months and a mean severity error of <0.57. The results showed that the HMM-RCP had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.     

Burrowing responses of the short-neck clam Ruditapes philippinarum to sediment contaminants

The burrowing responses of a common tropical bivalve, the short-neck clam Ruditapes philippinarum, to cadmium (Cd)-spiked sediment, variations of sediment grain size and natural sediments collected from 15 locations in Hong Kong's inshore waters were investigated through a series of laboratory tests. Results showed that the burrowing response exhibited a negative relationship with an increase in Cd concentration in the spiked sediments. The level of Cd was also found to be directly proportional to the percent mortality of the clam. However, there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the time elapsed for the clam to burrow into sediments with different grain size composition. The elapsed time for 50% of the test clams to burrow into the sediment (ET₅₀) over a period of 48 h was calculated for the sediment samples collected from the 15 locations. Results of ANOVA showed significant difference (p<0.05) among the sediment samples. Tukey's multiple comparison test revealed two groups of sediments: group 1 containing 3 sediment samples collected from Victoria Harbour and group 2 containing 12 samples obtained from other coastal areas of Hong Kong. The ET₅₀ value for group 1 sediments was found to be greater than 2880 min whilst the ET₅₀ for group 2 sediments had a mean of 173.9 min. Agglomerative classification of the sediment samples, based on metal content (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn), also showed two similar groups, suggesting that the ET₅₀ values were correlated with the metal level of the sediment samples. Group 1 sediments collected from Victoria Harbour had greater concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Zn as compared to that in group 2. The present study demonstrated that high metal content in the sediment tends to inhibit the burrowing responses of the clam and that there is potential to develop the burrowing responses of R. philippinarum as a sublethal sediment toxicity test.     

Basin rotation method for analyzing the directional influence of moving storms on basin response

Hydrologic responses to variations in storm direction provide useful information for the analysis and prediction of floods and the development of watershed management strategies. However, the prediction of hydrologic responses to changes in storm direction is a difficult task that requires meteorological simulations and extensive computation. It is also difficult to identify the center of rotation of a storm affecting a basin of interest. Therefore, we propose a simple approach of rotating the basin position relative to the storm within the rainfall–runoff simulation model instead of changing the pathway of the storm, which we term the basin rotation method (BRM). The proposed BRM was tested on four major typhoon events in South Korea. The results illustrated that the original basin orientation (i.e., before it was rotated) exhibits earlier and higher peak discharge and earlier recession compared to the basin after rotation. We conclude that the proposed method (BRM) is a viable alternative for use in assessing the directional influence of moving storms on floods caused by historical rather than hypothetical storm events.     

3D acoustic waveform inversion in the Laplace domain using an iterative solver

In this paper we propose a 3D acoustic full waveform inversion algorithm in the Laplace domain. The partial differential equation for the 3D acoustic wave equation in the Laplace domain is reformulated as a linear system of algebraic equations using the finite element method and the resulting linear system is solved by a preconditioned conjugate gradient method. The numerical solutions obtained by our modelling algorithm are verified through a comparison with the corresponding analytical solutions and the appropriate dispersion analysis. In the Laplace‐domain waveform inversion, the logarithm of the Laplace transformed wavefields mainly contains long‐wavelength information about the underlying velocity model. As a result, the algorithm smoothes a small‐scale structure but roughly identifies large‐scale features within a certain depth determined by the range of offsets and Laplace damping constants employed. Our algorithm thus provides a useful complementary process to time‐ or frequency‐domain waveform inversion, which cannot recover a large‐scale structure when low‐frequency signals are weak or absent. The algorithm is demonstrated on a synthetic example: the SEG/EAGE 3D salt‐dome model. The numerical test is limited to a Laplace‐domain synthetic data set for the inversion. In order to verify the usefulness of the inverted velocity model, we perform the 3D reverse time migration. The migration results show that our inversion results can be used as an initial model for the subsequent high‐resolution waveform inversion. Further studies are needed to perform the inversion using time‐domain synthetic data with noise or real data, thereby investigating robustness to noise.     

On computation of strain‐dependent permeability of rocks and rock‐like porous media

Determination of transport properties of geomaterials is an important issue in many fields of engineering analysis and design. For example, in petroleum engineering, in situ permeability of an oil reservoir may be crucial in establishing its viability for exploitation, whilst prevention of leakage from underground storage facilities for oil and gas, nuclear waste as well as viability of CO₂ sequestration projects crucially depends on its long‐term values. Permeability is indirectly related to the porosity, pore‐size distribution and pore architecture of the porous media. These parameters evolve when a strain field is imposed. Physical measurement of permeability under a strain field in laboratory conditions is difficult, expensive and prone to a number of uncertainties. In the past, pore network models have been used to compute permeability of materials under stress/strain‐free conditions. In this paper, we propose an enhanced pore network model to compute permeability of rocks and rock‐like porous media under a stress/strain field. Data of pore‐size distribution obtained from mercury intrusion porosimetry are used to compute permeability of rock samples from various unspecified oilfields in the world. It is shown that the two permeabilities can be predicted from the model with sufficient accuracy. A hypothesis for change in porosity, pore‐size distribution and pore architecture as a result of imposed mechanical strains is then proposed. Based on this, permeability is computed again for one of the rock samples under uniaxial and triaxial compressive and tensile strain fields. It is shown that depending on the state of strain field imposed, permeability evolves in an anisotropic manner. Permeability under tensile strain field increases dramatically compared with the reduction that takes place under compressive strain field of the same magnitude. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sulfur Isotope Variations of Metallic Ore Deposits in the Gyeongsang Basin,South Korea

Many metallic ore deposits of the Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary periods are distributed in the Gyeongsang Basin. Previous and newly analyzed sulfur isotope data of 309 sulfide samples from 56 ore deposits were reviewed to discuss the genetic characteristics in relation to granitoid rocks. The metallogenic provinces of the Gyeongsang Basin are divided into the Au–Ag(–Cu–Pb–Zn) province in the western basin where the sedimentary rocks of the Shindong and Hayang groups are distributed, Pb–Zn(–Au–Ag–Cu), Cu–Pb–Zn(–Au–Ag), and Fe–W(–Mo) province in the central basin where the volcanic rocks of the Yucheon Group are dominant, and Cu(–Mo–W–Fe) province in the southeastern basin where both sedimentary rocks of the Hayang Group and Tertiary volcanic rocks are present. Average sulfur isotope compositions of the ore deposits show high tendencies ranging from 2.2 to 11.7‰ (average 5.4‰) in the Pb–Zn(–Au–Ag–Cu) province, ?0.7 to 11.5‰ (average 4.6‰) in the Cu–Pb–Zn(–Au–Ag) province, and 3.7 to 11.4‰ (average 7.5‰) in the Fe–W(–Mo) province in relation to magnetite‐series granitoids, whereas they are low in the Au–Ag(–Cu–Pb–Zn) province in relation to ilmenite‐series granitoids, ranging from ?2.9 to 5.7‰ (average 1.7‰). In the Cu(–Mo–W–Fe) province δ³⁴S values are intermediate ranging from 0.3 to 7.7‰ (average 3.6‰) and locally high δ³⁴S values are likely attributable to sulfur derived from the Tertiary volcanic rocks during hydrothermal alteration through faults commonly developed in this region. Magma originated by the partial melting of the ³⁴S‐enriched oceanic plate intruded into the volcanic rocks and formed magnetite‐series granitoids in the central basin, which contributed to high δ³⁴S values of the metallic deposits. Conversely, ilmenite‐series granitoids were formed by assimilation of sedimentary rocks rich in organic sulfur that influenced the low δ³⁴S values of the deposits in the western and southeastern provinces.     

He+ ion implantation and electron irradiation effects on cathodoluminescence of plagioclase

Cathodoluminescence (CL) spectra of unirradiated, He⁺ ion-implanted and electron-irradiated plagioclase minerals contain the following emission bands: (1) below 300 nm due to Pb²⁺, (2) at ~320 and ~350 nm to Ce³⁺, (3) at 380–420 nm to Eu²⁺, Ti⁴⁺ and/or Al–O^?–Al/Ti defects, (4) at 560–580 nm to Mn²⁺ and (5) at 720–760 nm to Fe³⁺. During the implantation of He⁺ ion, much of their energy may be dissipated by partial destruction and strain of the feldspar framework, resulting in quenching of CL. Deconvolution of CL spectra acquired from albite and oligoclase reveals an emission component at 1.86 eV (666 nm) assigned to a radiation-induced defect center associated with Na⁺ atoms. As its intensity increases with radiation dose, this emission component has potential for geodosimetry and geochronometry. Electron irradiation causes Na⁺ migration in plagioclase, and then a considerable reduction in intensity of emissions assigned to impurity centers, which is responsible for an alteration in the energy state or a decrease in luminescence efficiency following the change of activation energy. Emission intensity at 1.86 eV positively correlates with electron irradiation time for unimplanted and He⁺ ion-implanted albite and oligoclase, but negatively for the implanted albite above 1.07 × 10^?4 C/cm². It implies that radiation halo produced by α-particles should not be measured using CL spectroscopy to estimate β radiation dose on albite in the high radiation level.     

Normal faulting of the Daiichi-Kashima Seamount in the Japan Trench revealed by the Kaiko I cruise, Leg 3

A detailed topographic and geophysical survey of the Daiichi-Kashima Seamount area in the southern Japan Trench, northwestern Pacific margin, clearly defines a high-angle normal fault which splits the seamount into two halves. A fan-shaped zone was investigated along 2–4 km spaced, 100 km long subparallel tracks using narrow multi-beam (Seabeam) echo-sounder with simultaneous measurements of gravity, magnetic total field and single-channel seismic reflection records. Vertical displacement of the inboard half was clearly mapped and its normal fault origin was supported. The northern and southern extensions of the normal fault beyond the flank of the seamount were delineated. Materials on the landward trench slope are displaced upward and to sideways away from the colliding seamount. Canyons observed in the upper landward slope terminate at the mid-slope terrace which has been uplifted since start of subduction of the seamount. Most of the landward slope except for the landward walls aside the seamount comprises only a landslide topography in a manner similar to the northern Japan Trench wall. This survey was conducted on R/V “Jean Charcot” as a part of the Kaiko I cruise, Leg 3, in July–August 1984 under the auspices of the French-Japanese scientific cooperative program.