滇西地区综合环境因子预报地震的研究

本在原有单项预报指标的基础上,研究西地区（Ｎ２３°４８′－２６°２０′;Ｅ９７°００′－９９°３０′）Ｍ≥５．０级的地震。     

Characteristics of China’s oil and gas pool formation in latest geological history

The structural activities took place extensively in the Asia continent during the Cenozoic era owing to the strong continent-to-continent collision and continuous compression between the India Plate and the Eurasia Plate. Huang Jiqing called such structural activities Himalayan movement. China’s sedimentary basins developed and took shape mainly during the Himalayan movement period. It is also the main period for formation and development of the oil and gas reservoirs. Of 366 large and medium-sized oil and gas fields currently found in China, 212 reservoirs were formed in the Neogene-Quaternary period. The proportion is as high as 68.2%. The oil and gas migration and accumulation in the latest geological period, which were controlled by the times, properties, styles and strength of the Himalayan movement, took place mainly in eight regions, such as the low uplift area of Bohai Sea, the onshore faulted sag area of Bohai Bay, anticlinorium zone in Daqing, the foreland fold-and-thrust belt in West China, the tilted structural zone in West China, the cratonic palaeohigh in the Tarim Basin, the zone of fault and fold belt in the East Sichuan Basin, and the biological gas zone in the East Qaidam Basin. The oil and gas pool formations in those regions have their own characteristics. With the great potential and broad prospect, those regions are the main exploration areas in China in the future.     

利用PETSc和FEPG编制海啸数值模拟程序的研究

海啸的数值模拟是海啸研究的一个重要领域, 它对于帮助理解海啸的基本物理特性和预防减灾具有重要意义。 海啸数值模拟程序的编制是一项繁杂的工作, 该文介绍了利用两种功能强大的通用软件(PETSc和FEPG)来进行海啸数值模拟程序编写的研究。 PETSc和FEPG采用有限差分、 有限元、 有限体积等多种离散方法, 可以对数值问题给出稳定的求解。 该文采用了直角坐标系下的非线性浅水波方程作为海啸波传播的控制方程进行离散求解, 并将其结果与TUNAMI N1模型进行了比较, 表明这两种方法方便而且有效。     

Spatio-temporal point pattern analysis on Wenchuan strong earthquake

For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aftershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershoc...     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

Study on seismic numerical model on the Chinese mainland and its vicinity

IntroductionSeismicprocessisextremelycomplicatedjustashasbeenprovedbytheeallhquakepredictionpractice.Thecomplexityofseismicprocessmainlydisplaystheinhomogeneityofseismicspace-timedistribution.Therearealotoffactorscausingthecomplexity,includingthemediumofseismicsource,themechanicalprocessofseismicsource,mutualeffectofgroupseismicactivity,andsoon.Studyontheseismicactivitylawstillremainsinalowlevel,especiallyintheaspectofseismicoccurrenceprocess.Manyscholarstrytostudytheseismicactivebehavioringr…     

Introduction of structural aseismic research in China in recent four years

Introduction Greeting the coming of the 21st century, Professor HU Yu-xian and other Chinese scholars briefed the trend of earthquake engineering in China and aboard (HU, 1999; HU, ZHOU, 1999). The experiences and lessons learning from the destructive earthquakes in China and abroad in re-cent years, the damage action of the large velocity impulse in ground motion in near field in seis-mic design, numerous earthquake examples show that there are many weaknesses in aspects of earthquake p…     

大姚地热动态特征分析

通过大姚高精度水温观测井水地质、井孔条件的分析，震例观测资料、实验观测数据的处理，以及井水水质分析结果，表明大姚水温周期性变化的突出位置是井深75m左右，根本原因是该地层石膏脉稳定释热，含水层热水与井内冷水混合过程中，在通道内形成钙盐类沉淀物（如CaSO4CaCO3），堵塞对流通道，含水层内外压差突破被阻塞通道，热水反复侵入井内，便形成水温周期性变化。地震的孕育、发生和调整过程，由于应力场作用，产生附加地热场，水温基值发生变化，周期畸变或消失，这种附加地热动态是可以恢复的。所以认为大姚地热动态是井区特殊地层地热信息的反映。