Middle Jurassic–Early Cretaceous tectonic evolution of the Bayanhushuo area,southern Great Xing’an Range,NE China: constraints from zircon U–Pb geochronological and geochemical data of volcanic and subvolcanic rocks

This study presents new zircon U–Pb geochronology, geochemistry, and zircon Hf isotopic data of volcanic and subvolcanic rocks that crop out in the Bayanhushuo area of the southern Great Xing’an Range (GXR) of NE China. These data provide insights into the tectonic evolution of this area during the late Mesozoic and constrain the evolution of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean. Combining these new ages with previously published data suggests that the late Mesozoic volcanism occurred in two distinct episodes: Early–Middle Jurassic (176–173 Ma) and Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous (151–138 Ma). The Early–Middle Jurassic dacite porphyry belongs to high-K calc-alkaline series, showing the features of I-type igneous rock. This unit has zircon ε_Hf(t) values from +4.06 to +11.62 that yield two-stage model ages (T_DM2) from 959 to 481 Ma. The geochemistry of the dacite porphyry is indicative of formation in a volcanic arc tectonic setting, and it is derived from a primary magma generated by the partial melting of juvenile mafic crustal material. The Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks belong to high-K calc-alkaline or shoshonite series and have A₂-type affinities. These volcanics have ε_Hf(t) and T_DM2 values from +5.00 to +8.93 and from 879 to 627 Ma, respectively. The geochemistry of these Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks is indicative of formation in a post-collisional extensional environment, and they formed from primary magmas generated by the partial melting of juvenile mafic lower crust. The discovery of late Mesozoic volcanic and subvolcanic rocks within the southern GXR indicates that this region was in volcanic arc and extensional tectonic settings during the Early–Middle Jurassic and the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous, respectively. This indicates that the Mongol–Okhotsk oceanic plate was undergoing subduction during the Early–Middle Jurassic, and this ocean adjacent to the GXR may have closed by the Late Middle Jurassic–Early Late Jurassic.     

Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.     

甘肃南部大水金矿集区找矿标志及找矿潜力分析

甘肃南部大水金矿集区金资源丰富,已累计探明金资源量150余吨。本文通过地面高精度磁测、水系沉积物测量、土壤测量以及大比例尺地质剖面、构造蚀变填图等多元勘探手段,总结归纳大水金矿集区成矿特征与规律,并得到以下找矿信息:区内二叠系、三叠系碳酸盐岩与金矿关系密切,地层对金矿起赋存定位作用;断裂构造对成矿起主导地位;岩浆活动与金矿成矿作用之间存在成因联系;蚀变对金矿化起控制作用;土壤测量所圈定的金异常与矿体对应程度高,土壤次生晕是该区找金的直接标志;中酸性侵入体能引起磁异常,而金成矿与中酸性岩体有密切时空关系。根据上述找矿标志,在格尔托金矿矿区新增金资源量10t;在格尔珂金矿深部不仅控制已知矿体的延深,并且发现数条厚大盲矿体,新增金资源量3t。     

车排子凸起与沙湾凹陷过渡带的构造模型

车排子凸起位于准噶尔盆地扎伊尔山前,是夹持在南部四棵树凹陷和东部沙湾凹陷之间的三角构造带。然而对这个三角构造带是原地掩伏构造,山前推覆构造,还是走滑构造控制形成的认识存在争议。目前对于车排子凸起与沙湾凹陷过渡带的构造变形特征以及变形机制的认识尚不清楚。而过渡带是研究该区构造变形与演化的良好区域,精细研究该区域构造几何学与运动学对于揭示其构造变形机制以及认识盆山之间的关系具有积极作用,并对于该区油气勘探具有重要意义。本文以研究区的连片三维地震资料为基础,运用不整合面识别、轴面分析及平衡剖面等方法,对车排子凸起与沙湾凹陷过渡带进行精细的构造解析、建模与构造复原。研究表明,过渡带发育下二叠统（P₁j-P₁f）,中二叠统（P₂x-P₂w）,上二叠统（P₃w）,三叠系（T）,侏罗系（J）,白垩系（K）与古近系-第四系（E-Q）7个构造变形层序。发育佳木河组底部及石炭系内部滑脱层。深部（前二叠系）构造楔发育于整个过渡带,其个数和几何学形态的变化直接影响了上覆背斜形态。构造楔在早二叠世开始楔入,挤压作用持续至三叠纪末期。晚三叠世发育生长地层,显示了P-T构造层褶皱变形的时间,随后三叠纪末期,过渡带受到来自西北缘造山带方向的逆冲推覆构造的叠加作用,表现在后缘发育一系列叠瓦构造,推覆距离约为8 km,南部逆冲断层上盘二叠系-三叠系被剥蚀完全,北部残余少量下二叠统佳木河组。     

大数据环境下内蒙古浩布高地区铅锌多金属矿智能矿产预测研究

传统机器学习算法已广泛应用于矿产预测,但面对地质大数据的高维稀疏、不平衡小样本等特性仍缺乏有效处理和分析的方法,设计适合地质大数据特点的机器学习算法是智能矿产预测亟需解决的新问题。本文以内蒙古浩布高地区的铅锌多金属矿产预测为例,提出了一种面向地质大数据的半监督协同训练矿产预测模型。首先对研究区地质找矿信息和地球化学异常信息进行定量分析,提取断裂构造、二叠系地层、燕山期侵入岩、地层与岩体接触带、围岩蚀变及Pb、Zn、Sn、Cu地球化学异常共9种找矿因子。然后利用递归特征消除法优选找矿因子组合,不包括Sn异常在内的8个找矿因子组合被选为最优组合。最后,利用支持向量机和随机森林算法作为基分类器进行半监督协同训练矿产预测,绘制成矿概率分布图。ROC曲线和预测度曲线分析结果表明,半监督协同训练模型的AUC值和预测效率都高于随机森林和支持向量机模型。研究结果也为大数据环境下的智能矿产预测提供了一种新的思路。     

Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry

Climate change caused by carbon emissions continuously threatens sustainable development. Due to China’s immense territory, there are remarkable regional differences in carbon emissions. The construction industry, which has strong internal industrial differences, further leads to carbon emission disparity in China. Policymakers should consider spatial effects and attempt to eliminate carbon emission inequality to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry and realize emission reduction targets. Based on the classic Markov chain and spatial Markov chain, this paper investigates the club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of China’s carbon intensity in the construction industry from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the provincial carbon intensity in the construction industry is characterized by “convergence clubs” during the research period, and very low-level and very high-level convergence clubs have strong stability. Moreover, the carbon intensity class transitions of provinces tend to be consistent with that of their neighbors. Furthermore, the transition of carbon intensity types is highly influenced by their regional backgrounds. The provinces with high carbon emissions have a negative influence on their neighbors, whereas the provinces with low carbon emissions have a positive influence. These analyses provide a spatial interpretation to the “club convergence” of carbon intensity.     

The Derivation and Validation of TBM Disc Cutter Wear Prediction Model

The problem of disc cutter wear is inevitable when shield or TBM excavating hard rock for a long distance, thus, the study of disc cutter wear model has an important project value on predicting its service life and replacement opportunity. It is put forward by analyzing disc cutter wear mechanism that the main wear form is abrasive wear, which is based on plastic removal mechanism. Then, disc cutter wear rate and linear wear rate prediction models are obtained by approximate calculation and mathematical deduction, which are based on Rabinowicz equation and CSM model. At last, the two models are verified through field test data from three projects, and the results show that the prediction model can accurately reflect the real wear situation of disc cutter.     

Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.