Interpretation of groundwater flow patterns through a reconstruction of the tritium precipitation record in the Cochabamba Valley, Bolivia

Regional behaviour of the groundwater flow system in the Cochabamba Valley, Bolivia, is evaluated through the interpretation of tritium (³H) distributions in groundwater samples from wells and springs. In order to interpret groundwater ³H concentrations in Cochabamba Valley, where no historical record of ³H concentrations in rainfall exists, a reconstructed ³H precipitation record is developed. The record of ³H concentrations in precipitation is fairly extensive in the Amazon Basin and this record was extrapolated to the neighbouring Cochabamba Valley. Tritium concentrations in rainfall have been observed to increase under natural conditions with increasing latitude and with increasing distance from the ocean. By considering these trends, a linear relationship for increasing ³H concentration in precipitation is developed, based on data from the Amazon Basin, that realistically predicts regional ³H distributions from the northeast Brazilian coast to Cuzco, Peru. This ³H precipitation record is then extrapolated to the Cochabamba Valley and, after correction for radiogenic decay, is used to interpret trends in groundwater ³H concentrations within the valley.

The groundwater flow system in one of the principal alluvial fans, which serves as an important groundwater resource for the city, is studied in detail. Tritium concentrations drop from approximately 8–10 tritium units (TU) in the recharge area to concentrations below the detection limit of 0.8 TU further out in the valley. Groundwater velocities of approximately 0.3 to 0.9 m d⁻¹ are estimated from distributions of groundwater ³H concentrations along the alluvial fan with the use of the reconstructed precipitation ³H record. Regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system are discussed with respect to future development and protection of the groundwater resources.     

1980 volcanic eruption reported on Marion Island

The first volcanic eruption in the recorded history of Marion Island (46°54′S, 37°45′E) occurred between February and October 1980 at a locality on the west coast. It was a minor event that passed unnoticed at the meteorological station 20 km distant. The discovery was made on November 4, by five expedition members who walked around the island. When examined in more detail on November 25, the lava was still warm in places and numerous fumaroles existed. Three blocky flows emanated from two adjacent cinder cones built-up on a pre-existing phreatomagmatic tuff cone known as Kaalkoppie. The largest flow covers an area of about seven hectares and a further two hectares have been inundated by ash. Another flow poured seawards to form a new beach front, blocking access to what was previously the largest elephant seal wallowing ground on the island. No earth tremors were felt and the activity seems to have ended for the time being.     

Relating Radar Remote Sensing of Biomass to Modelling of Forest Carbon Budgets

This paper addresses the use of radar remote sensing to map forest above-ground biomass, and discusses the use of biomass maps to test a dynamic vegetation model that identifies carbon sources and sinks and predicts their variation over time. For current radar satellite data, only the biomass of young/sparse forests or regrowth after disturbances can be recovered. An example from central Siberia illustrates that biomass can be measured by radar at a continental scale, and that a significant proportion of the Siberian forests have biomass values less than 50 tonnes/ha. Comparison between the radar map and calculations by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) indicates that the model considerably overestimates biomass; under-representation of managed areas, disturbed areas and areas of low site quality in the model are suggested reasons for this effect. A case study carried out at the Büdingen plantation forest in Germany supports the argument that inadequate representations of site quality and forest management may cause model overestimates of biomass. Comparison of the calculated biomass of stands planted after 1990 with biomass estimates by radar allows identification of forest stands where the growth conditions assumed by the model are not valid. This allows a quality check on model calculations of carbon fluxes: only calculations for stands where there is good agreement between the data and the model predictions should be accepted. Although the paper only uses the SDGVM model, similar effects are likely in other dynamic vegetation models, and the results show that model calculations attempting to quantify the role of forests as carbon sources or sinks could be qualified and potentially improved by exploiting remotely sensed measurements of biomass.     

Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine‐dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Safuna Alta,Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Moraines that dam proglacial lakes pose an increasing hazard to communities in the Andes and other mountain ranges. The moraines are prone to failure through collapse, overtopping by lake waters or the effect of displacement waves resulting from ice and rock avalanches. Resulting floods have led to the loss of thousands of lives in the Cordillera Blanca mountains of Peru alone in the last 100 years. On 22 April 2002 a rock avalanche occurred immediately to the south‐west of Laguna Safuna Alta, in the Cordillera Blanca. The geomorphic evidence for the nature, magnitude and consequences of this event was investigated in August 2002. Field mapping indicated that the avalanche deposited 8–20 × 10⁶ m³ of rock into the lake and onto the surface of the frontal region of Glaciar Pucajirca, which flows into the lake. Repeated bathymetric surveying indicated that ～5 × 10⁶ m³ of this material was deposited directly into the lake. The immediate effect of this event was to create a displacement wave that gained in height as it travelled along the lake basin, overtopping the impounding moraine at the lake's northern end. To achieve overtopping, the maximum wave height must have been greater than 100 m. This, and subsequent seiche waves, caused extensive erosion of both the proximal and distal faces of the impounding terminal moraine. Further deep gullying of the distal face of this moraine resulted from the supply of pressurized water to the face via a relief overflow tunnel constructed in 1978. Two‐dimensional, steady‐state analysis of the stability of the post‐avalanche moraine rampart indicates that its proximal face remains susceptible to major large‐scale rotational failure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chlorine stable isotope studies of old groundwater,southwestern Great Artesian Basin,Australia

Stable Cl isotope ratios (³⁷Cl/³⁵Cl) were measured in groundwater samples from the southwestern flow system of the Great Artesian Basin, Australia to gain a better understanding of the Cl⁻ sources and transport mechanisms. δ³⁷Cl values range from 0‰ to −2.5‰ (SMOC), and are inversely correlated with Cl⁻ concentration along the inferred flow direction. The Cl isotopic compositions, in conjunction with other geochemical parameters, suggest that Cl⁻ in groundwaters is not derived from salt dissolution. Mixing of the recharge water with saline groundwater cannot explain the relationship between δ³⁷Cl and Cl⁻ concentration measured. Marine aerosols deposited via rainfall and subsequent evapotranspiration appear to be responsible for the Cl⁻ concentrations observed in wells that are close to the recharge area, and in groundwaters sampled along the southern transect. δ³⁷Cl values measured in the leachate of the Bulldog shale suggest that the aquitard is the subsurface source of Cl⁻ for the majority of groundwater samples studied. Diffusion is likely the mechanism through which Cl⁻ is transported from the pore water of the Bulldog shale to the aquifer. However, a more detailed study of the aquitard rocks is required to verify this hypothesis.     

Geochemistry and stable isotopic signatures,including chlorine and bromine isotopes,of the deep groundwaters of the Siberian Platform,Russia

The chemical composition and the isotopic characteristics of formation waters from the Siberian Platform are presented. The study involved samples of formation brines from depths ranging from 100 to ∼4000 m at five different sites covering a large area of the Siberian Platform. Four water types were identified. The two main water types that were found are: (1) Ca–Cl brines that are believed to be the residual of an evaporated paleoseawater; and (2) Na–Cl brines that are derived mainly from halite dissolution. The origin of a third group of highly saline samples was not determined. However, the chemical and isotopic characteristics of this group of samples suggest that they were produced by various complex scenarios such as metamorphism, water–rock interaction, permafrost freezing and mixing. The last group of samples represents fresh and brackish waters across the area.     

Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-realtime (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012?–?2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several machine learning (ML) and conventional statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) and \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second-best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best-performing method gives accuracy \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.93(0.00)\), true skill statistic \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.74(0.02)\), and Heidke skill score \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.49(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.84(0.00)\), \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.60(0.01)\), and \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.59(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.     

Cytological and Physiological Biomarker Responses from Green Mussels, Perna viridis (L.) Transplanted to Contaminated Sites in Hong Kong Coastal Waters

Biological monitoring of marine contaminants often involves the analysis of metals accumulated in mussel tissues. Critiques of this type of monitoring suggest that although relatively good indications of ambient metal concentrations are determined, actual biological harm is not elucidated. Biomarkers, techniques originally developed in medicine, have recently been employed in an attempt to ascertain the health of marine mussels. Biomarkers have been used with good effect in temperate marine pollution monitoring programmes. The use of biomarkers in the toxicological evaluation of tropical and subtropical waters is, however, generally lacking, which is somewhat surprising, as considerable industrialisation and environmental degradation is taking place in the Pacific-rim countries of Southeast Asia. In the present study, a suite of cytological and physiological biomarkers have been measured from mussels (Perna viridis: Mytilidae) transplanted within the coastal waters of Hong Kong. Mussels from contaminated sites, had labile lysosomal membranes, whereas animals from a cleaner reference site had more stable membranes. These cytological responses have been related to metal-induced stress and are simple, cost-effective markers of pollution. Cardiac activity from mussels transplanted to polluted sites was generally similar to that of individuals from the reference site, although a mild tachycardia was associated with one site. The cause of the tachycardia and the use of heart rate in mussels as a biomarker is discussed. Integrated physiological responses to stress, condition indices, revealed mussels from a clean reference site had higher indices than animals from contaminated sites. The relative sensitivities of the cytological and physiological biomarkers deployed in this study and their application to pollution monitoring is discussed.