An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

长江上游国土资源,生态环境与灾害防治

长江上游干流流经青、藏、川、滇、鄂、渝6省市,支流涉及甘肃、陕西、贵州3省,流域面积为105.4×10⁴km²,人口1.55亿,占全国国土面积的11.1%。
长江上游地区经济发展相对落后,人均国民收入低,少数民族众多,与中下游经济发达地区差距很大。但上游地区蕴藏着巨大的经济开发潜能,丰富的水力和矿产等自然资源,以及农、林、牧等物产,对中下游地区经济发展有着巨大的支援作用。同时,由于自然地理上的相关性,又使上游地区的开发治理,对中下游地区的生态环境和可持续发展有着至关重要的作用。
目前,长江上游森林植被大量减少,水源涵养能力下降,水土流失加剧:泥石流、滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害严重,旱、洪灾害频发;沿江大量排放废气、废水、污水,使大气和水体严重污染。随着上游地区生态环境的日益恶化,给中下游地区带来严重危害,河道、湖泊、水库淤积加速,洪涝灾害频繁发生,造成中下游地区经济建设和人民生命财产的重大损失。因此,必须尽快对长江上游地区进行全面综合治理,尽快开展新一轮国土资源大调查,制定各种自然资源的合理开发利用和保护方案;控制沿江污染源的排放,建立大气和水体污染监测系统;运用高新技术,建立上游重点地带地壳形变的动态监测和预警系统,防治地质灾害;充分利用上游地区丰富的水力资源,兴建多级水利设施,对地表水实施人工的时空控制,消除旱、洪灾害。     

A mixed finite element method for Hele-Shaw cell equations

A new numerical method to solve the system of equations describing two phase flow in a Hele-Shaw cell is presented. It combines a mixed finite element method, the method of subtraction of the singularity and a front tracking grid in a single computational strategy. This choice of discretization techniques is well motivated by the difficulties present in the system of equations and the physics of the problem. The new method was tested against analytical solutions and also by solving the Saffman–Taylor viscous fingering problem for finite and infinite mobility ratios. In both cases convergence under mesh refinement is achieved for the fingers developed from an initial sinusoidal interface. Finger splitting is observed for low values of the surface tension and high mobility ratio. Different explanations, based in our results, are provided for this phenomenon. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Statistics of nonlinear wave crests and groups

Groups of large nonlinear waves with sharper higher crests can pose hazards to ships, induce harbor resonance and cause wave-overtopping of fixed and floating structures. Past interest in wave groups has mostly been focused on the statistics and modeling of linear wave groups. Studies on nonlinear wave groups are surprisingly few, and address deep water waves only. Here, statistics of nonlinear wave crests and wave-crest groups in deep and transitional water depths are considered, using an appropriate second-order representation for crest heights and the continuous wave-envelope approach. In particular, theoretical expressions describing the statistics of nonlinear wave crests and their groups are posed in the form of a simple second-order transformation of well-known results on linear waves. Predictions from the transformation so posed compare well with nonlinear wave data gathered in the North Sea, and demonstrate that nonlinearities do affect the statistics of large wave crests and their groups significantly.     

Assessment of direct determination uncertainties of incoming radiation fluxes associated with the ship motion

The paper considers the impact of ship oscillations on the accuracy of radiation flux measurements in the absence of a gyroplatform and a gimbal suspension. As an example, we discuss the simultaneous determinations of the radiation fluxes and careen during the 20th mission of the R/V Akademik Joffe. A sampling rate of 10 s was found to be sufficient to neglect the careen when estimating the hourly sums of the short-wave solar radiation at sun heights exceeding 10°. At smaller sun heights, the careen is able to effect the estimates of the solar radiation within 20%. Due to the harmonic nature of such oscillations, these errors tend to become low against the instrumental accuracy if one deals with the hourly and daily means of the short-wave solar radiation fluxes during sufficiently long observations. In addition, a significant effect occurs at rather low sun and a sea roughness of Beaufort number 4 or higher. A rough sea is usually associated with the diminishing of the clear sky area and the higher repeatability of the cloudiness conditions, which reduces the effect of rolling upon the measurement accuracy.     

Distribution of Ixodes ricinus L., 1758 and Ixodes persulcatus Shulze, 1930 (Parasitoformes,Ixodidae) in Russia and adjacent countries in view of observable climate changes

Possible changes in the area inhabited by the ticks Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus, the main transmitters of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease in Russia, caused by temperature changes in 1976–2005 compared to 1946–1975 are discussed. It is shown that these changes could result in some areal expansion of these species. In the European part of Russia, I. ricinus expanded its areal boundaries to the east 100–300 km. I. persulcatus expanded its areal in the Asian part of Russia. Its boundary moved to the north and northeast 100–300 km. Areal expansion both of species has not been observed.     

Decompression P–T path of coesite eclogite to granulite from Weihai, eastern China

Granulitized coesite-bearing eclogite from Weihai, northeastern part of the Shandong peninsula, eastern China was studied in detail to reveal the modification of mineral chemistry during decompression metamorphism. Considerable modification of chemical composition is recorded in clinopyroxene that occurs both as inclusions in garnet and as a matrix mineral. Careful examination of chemical variation with the change in microstructure made it possible to estimate the equilibrium composition of minerals at the coesite eclogite and garnet granulite stages. We were able to define three reference points on the P–T path, namely, coesite eclogite (3 GPa, 660±40°C), granulite (1 GPa, 700±30°C) and amphibolite (0.9 GPa, 600±20°C). The path thus obtained is similar to those obtained by previous workers and supports nearly isothermal decompression of coesite eclogite.     

Descriptive Analysis and Classification of Benthic Communities in Some Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons (Central Italy)

Abstract. Benthic samples were taken seasonally at 32 stations in five coastal lagoons of Central Italy (Fogliano, Monaci, Caprolace, Fondi, and Lungo) during a two-year period (1982–1984). Composition and distribution of benthic populations in each lagoon as well as seasonal trends of species richness, density, diversity, and redundancy are presented and discussed.
The faunal differentiation appeared to be mainly due to the different degree of water exchange, both with marine and continental systems.     

Damage to surface structures due to underground coal mine blasting: apprehension or real cause?

Investigations were carried out at three underground coal mines in India to study the response of surface structures to underground blasting and the likelihood of damage to the structures. The structures in the vicinity of the underground blasting area were single and multistoried residential houses. The amplitudes of vibration due to underground blasting were monitored simultaneously on the ground surface near the foundation of the structures and on various floors of the structures. The vibrations were also monitored near the important surface installations. It was observed that the magnitude of vibration in structures decreased with the increase in the height of the structures. The frequency of blast vibration from underground blasting was higher than the natural frequency of the structures. Little energy was transmitted into the structures, which caused reduction in the vibration level in the structures. The reduction in the vibration levels was up to 45% in the houses. It indicates that the dominant frequency of blast vibration plays an important role in persistence of vibration and its amplification or reduction characteristics in the structures. This paper deals with the effect of the vibrations on structures/houses standing above the blasting faces in underground workings and their potential to likely damage to the structures at different Indian geo-mining conditions.     

Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.