Bayesian model selection for sand with generalization ability evaluation

Current studies have focused on selecting constitutive models using optimization methods or selecting simple formulas or models using Bayesian methods. In contrast, this paper deals with the challenge to propose an effective Bayesian-based selection method for advanced soil models accounting for the soil uncertainty. Four representative critical state-based advanced sand models are chosen as database of constitutive model. Triaxial tests on Hostun sand are selected as training and testing data. The Bayesian method is enhanced based on transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whereby the generalization ability for each model is simultaneously evaluated, for the model selection. The most plausible/suitable model in terms of predictive ability, generalization ability, and model complexity is selected using training data. The performance of the method is then validated by testing data. Finally, a series of drained triaxial tests on Karlsruhe sand is used for further evaluating the performance.     

Demonstration and application of NMM‐based fractured porous medium flow model

In natural rock masses, the shapes of three‐dimensional (3‐D) blocks cut by arbitrary fracture networks may be very complex. Owing to the geometric complexity and difficulty of mesh discretization of 3‐D blocks and fracture facets, explicit consideration of fracture networks in flow analysis of fractured porous medium (FPM) is very challenging. Using the numerical manifold method based on independent covers (NMMIC), an FPM flow model was proposed that can deal with very complex 3‐D fracture networks. In this paper, the convergence of NMMIC was first demonstrated. The theoretical basis of the arbitrary refinement of computational meshes was proven. Moreover, three peculiarities of NMMIC meshes, that is, arbitrary shape, arbitrary connection, and arbitrary refinement of independent covers, were concluded. Finally, some two‐dimensional (2‐D) tunnel flow examples were analyzed and the numerical results were compared with the analytical results. 3‐D examples with complex fracture distributions were also analyzed. In addition, the computational scale of the developed program was tested by increasing the number of computational elements. The results show that our model can accurately analyze the groundwater flow of rocks surrounding tunnels with complex fracture distributions.     

Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model

Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25°×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5.     

培育密度、换水量和倒池培育对珠母贝浮游幼虫生长发育和存活的影响

以室内育苗池或玻璃缸养殖方式,研究了不同培育密度、换水量和倒池培育对珠母贝浮游幼虫生长发育和存活的影响。结果表明:当培育密度为0.8、1.2只/mL,直线铰合期时间分别为7.00、7.40d,日均生长为5.16、4.87μm,壳顶期时间分别为10.76d和10.77d,眼点期密度为0.58只·mL-1和0.60只·mL-1,差异不显著;日换水量分别为40%、60%、80%,直线铰合期时间、壳顶期时间、日均生长及眼点期密度差异不显著,日换水量40%能满足幼虫的生长和存活;壳顶初期进行倒池培育,能促进浮游幼虫的生长发育和提高其存活率。     

地震数据采集器后级滤波器的设计

以ADS1281为例,介绍新一代地震数据采集器后级滤波器设计。该后级滤波器包括变抽样率的梳状滤波器、有限脉冲响应(FIR1)4抽1滤波器和有限脉冲响应(FIR2)2抽1滤波器。其中,FIR1 4抽1滤波器和FIR2 2抽1又分为最小相位、线性相位和瞬态3种滤波器,文中使用设计的最小相位滤波抽取器对仿真的正弦波进行滤波验证,结果表明,通带波动和阻带衰减满足中国数字测震台网技术规程的要求。     

Does Aqueous‐Phase Oxidation of HCHO Opens a Pathway to Formic Acids in Atmosphere?

Formic acid is the major contributor to acid rain in some regions but its sources are not fully understood. We investigated the aqueous‐phase reactions of HCHO (aq) and OH ^. radicals at enlarged rainwater pH values (2.49–5.89) in Guiyang, China from May 2006 to April 2007. Our results show that there were no significant correlation between the [HCOOH]_t/[HCHO] (aq) and the rainwater pH. The ratio did not appear to vary consistently as a function of rainwater pH as predicted by theoretical model. In addition, we saw no clear evidence that oxidation of HCHO (aq) would produce significant HCOOH (aq) which indicates this reaction may be only a minor contribution to the budget of HCOOH (g) in atmosphere. Further investigation is strongly suggested to be carried out in field cloud water, fog water, or rainwater because the ratios would be diverged from equilibrium value as a result of other chemical or physical processes.     

Effect of deposit alterations on the dating of herbivorous teeth from Arago cave by the ESR–U-series method

Geochemical alteration processes in archaeological sites may affect the environmental dose rate during the burial history and cause inaccuracy in age determination by palaeodosimetric dating methods, such as luminescence or ESR. In Arago Cave (Tautavel, France), the original composition of the sandy aeolian sediments of palaeoanthropological level G, where the Homo heidelbergensis Arago XXI skull was found, has been modified by both carbonation and phosphatization processes. Eight fossil teeth were collected from different geochemically affected parts of level G and analyzed by the ESR–U-series method. All the teeth are presumably contemporaneous. The results show that the samples from the phosphated area agree within error with those from the carbonated area. Surprisingly, the samples from the non-altered area show ages 100–150 ka younger. This difference is mainly due to the remarkable changes in the gamma dose rate over time. The measured in situ dose rate accounts for more than 50% of the total dose rate for all the samples. We observed that the samples' equivalent dose (D_E) were generally 20% lower in the non-altered area than in the carbonated and phosphated ones. These results show the crucial effect of the geochemical processes affecting the age calculation by ESR–U-series method in comparison with independent chronological data.     

中国大陆科学钻探井区深部构造地震波反射特征

中国大陆科学钻探（CCSD）井位于苏鲁超高压变质带南部的东海县境内。井区地震勘探是钻探综合研究项目之一,该项目采用世界先进的数字地震仪和三分量数字检波器,对line 1线剖面进行了测量。依据地震勘探成果和CCSD岩心资料,通过对该地震剖面深部构造反射特征的详细分析,发现该区深部反射构造具有明显的三单元层结构。第一单元层,约在11 km内,出现6个强反射带,产状基本一致,倾向SE,倾角28°。岩心资料和VSP勘探资料证实前4个反射带主要是榴辉岩带和韧性剪切带的反射,榴辉岩带与片麻岩成不规则层状相间分布。第二单元层,约在11~30 km,有4个比较清楚的反射带,反射弱,连续性差,带内分布有不规则的弱反射。其产状也基本一致,倾角很小,比较平缓,由浅到深,倾向逐渐变为NW,它与第一单元层为角度不整合接触关系。第三单元层,约在30 km以下深度,其顶部出现了比较强的反射带,连续性较好,产状较平缓,倾向NW;而在顶部反射带以下,则反射均匀,没有不规则反射带。据上述反射特征,结合该区地质背景,推测第一单元层为中朝与扬子板块俯冲带的折返地壳层,第二单元层为扬子克拉通层,主要为变质岩层,第三单元层为上地幔层,其顶部的反射为莫霍面的反射。