Why the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Euler</Emphasis> scheme in particle tracking is not enough: the shallow-sea pycnocline test case

During the last decades, the Euler scheme was the common “workhorse” in particle tracking, although it is the lowest-order approximation of the underlying stochastic differential equation. To convince the modelling community of the need for better methods, we have constructed a new test case that will show the shortcomings of the Euler scheme. We use an idealised shallow-water diffusivity profile that mimics the presence of a sharp pycnocline and thus a quasi-impermeable barrier to vertical diffusion. In this context, we study the transport of passive particles with or without negative buoyancy. A semi-analytic solutions is used to assess the performance of various numerical particle-tracking schemes (first- and second-order accuracy), to treat the variations in the diffusivity profile properly. We show that the commonly used Euler scheme exhibits a poor performance and that widely used particle-tracking codes shall be updated to either the Milstein scheme or second-order schemes. It is further seen that the order of convergence is not the only relevant factor, the absolute value of the error also is.     

Development of a sustainable livelihood security model for storm-surge hazard in the coastal areas of Bangladesh

Coastal communities in Bangladesh are at great risk due to frequent cyclones and cyclone induced storm-surges, which damages inland and marine resource systems. In the present research, seven marginal livelihood groups including Farmers, Fisherman, Fry (shrimp) collectors, Salt farmers, Dry fishers, Forest resource extractors, and Daily wage labourers are identified to be extremely affected by storm- surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. A livelihood security model was developed to investigate the security status of the coastal livelihood system in a participatory approach. In the model, livelihood security consists of five components: (1) Food, (2) Income, (3) Life & health, (4) House & properties, and (5) Water security. Analytical hierarchy process was followed to assess the livelihood security indicators based on respondents’ security options. The model was verified through direct field observation and expert judgment. The Livelihood Security Model yields a Livelihood Security Index which can be used for assessing and comparing the household security level (in %) of different livelihood groups in the storm-surge prone coastal areas. The model was applied with data from two major coastal areas (Cox’s Bazar and Satkhira) of Bangladesh and is applicable to other coastal areas having similar settings.     

Does the perception of climate change vary with the socio-demographic dimensions? A study on vulnerable populations in Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - This study tried to explore the perception of climate change by considering the socio-demographic dimensions of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh. This study included 158...     

Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime.Due to poor management and policy implications,blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses.Thus,it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting.In this study,catch and effort data,1996-2009,of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp.Maximum,minimum and average capture production of P.stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons(mt)(1997),9 438 mt(2009) and 11 667 mt/a.Two stock assessment tools viz.CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY(maximum sustainable yield) of this organism.In CEDA,three surplus production models,Fox,Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson,along with three error assumptions,log,log normal and gamma,were used.For initial proportion(IP) 0.8,the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt(CV=0.204,R~2=0.709) and 7 384 mt(CV=0.149,R~2=0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively.Here,gamma error produced minimization failure.Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log,log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e.7 083 mt,8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly.The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R~2(0.712) values.ASPIC computed MSY,CV,R~2,F_(MSY)and B_(MSY) parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt,0.142,0.872,0.111 and 65 280,while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt,0.148,0.868,0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly.Results obtained have shown that P.stylifera has been overexploited.Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.     

THE PARSA ENSTATITE CHONDRITE

Two meteoritic stones weighing roughly 600 and 200 g fell on 14 April 1942 near Parsa, Bihar, India. The meteorite is a high-Fe (EH) enstatite chondrite on the basis of its large abundance of chondrules, its low concentrations of refractory elements, the Si content of its metal (25–30 mg/g), and its enstatite composition Mg_0.975Ca_0.007Fe_0.018. The high contents of Zn, Cd and In suggest that Parsa is petrologic type 4. A unique feature is an irregular nodule of coarse enstatite, several cm long which is chemically different in its Ca and Fe content compared to the matrix. We have increased the elemental concentrations by 10% to allow for terrestrial oxidation and hydration. The revised siderophile and moderately volatile element concentrations fall within the range observed in EH chondrites and mostly outside the range found in EL chondrites. Terrestrial alteration is indicated by the presence of limonite and other hydrated minerals as well as the morphologies revealed by scanning electron microscopy. The ²⁶Al activity is 51 ± 6 dpm/kg consistent with the calculated production rate. Cosmogenic track densities combined with the ²¹Ne, ³⁸Ar exposure age of 17 Myr indicate 4–10 cm ablation loss, or a preatmospheric mass of about 40 kg.     

Management and Maintenance of Forestry:A Catastrophic Stochastic Analysis

In this paper, we have carried out a detailedstochastic analysis of the Ludwig-Jones–Holling modelpertaining to the occasional population burst ofthe spruce budworms in the coniferous forests of Canada.Our analysis explains the abrupt burst of the populationin the form of cusp catastrophe. A qualitative recipe hasbeen suggested for avoiding the catastrophe.     

Axisymmetric transients in shells of revolution

The propagation of axisymmetric transients in shells of revolution subjected to impulsive boundary loads is treated in this paper. Consideration is restricted to linear, elastic, isotropic, homogeneous shells of revolution with straight line generators. The analysis is based on the concept of a wave as a carrier of discontinuities in the field variable and its derivatives. These discontinuities are determined from a set of recurrence relations which are in turn generated by the use of asymptotic series solutions to the equations of motion. A numerical superposition technique which enables the calculation of long time response is developed. Several numerical examples are presented in order to illustrate the method.