Buoyancy‐driven deformation and contemporary tectonic stress in the lithosphere beneath Central Italy

We studied the continental deformation and modelled the contemporary flow and stress distribution in the lithosphere beneath Central Italy. We made use of a revisited crust and uppermost mantle Earth structure that supports delamination processes. The model behaviour is primarily determined by the thick high density lithospheric root to the east and the low‐viscosity shallow mantle wedge to the west. The rate of the modeled crustal motion is in agreement with GPS data and the pattern of lithospheric flow explains the heat flux, the regional geology and provides a new background for the genesis and age of the recent Tuscan magmatism. The modelled stress in the lithosphere is spatially correlated with the prevailing stress field and the gravitational potential energy patterns and shows that buoyancy forces, solely, can explain the coexisting regional contraction and extension and the unusual sub‐crustal seismicity.     

Comparison of automatic procedures for selecting flood peaks over threshold based on goodness‐of‐fit tests

In comparison with the traditional analysis of annual maximums, the peaks over threshold method provides many advantages when performing flood frequency analysis and trend analysis. However, the choice of the threshold remains an important question without definite answers and common visual diagnostic tools are difficult to reproduce on a large scale. This study investigates the behaviour of some automatic methods for threshold selection based on the generalized Pareto model for flood peak exceedances of the threshold and the Anderson–Darling test for fitting this model. In particular, the choice of a critical significance level to define an interval of acceptable values is addressed. First, automatic methods are investigated using a simulation study to assess fitting and prediction performance in a controlled environment. It is shown that P values approximated by an existing table of critical values can speed up computation without affecting the quality of the outcomes. Second, a case study compares automatically and manually selected thresholds for 285 sites across Canada by flood regime and super regions based on site characteristics. Correspondences are examined in terms of prediction of flood quantiles and trend analysis. Results show that trend detection is sensitive to the threshold selection method when studying the evolution of the number of peaks per year. Finally, a hybrid method is developed to combine automatic methods and is calibrated on the basis of super regions. The outcomes of the hybrid method are shown to more closely reproduce the estimates of the manually selected thresholds while reducing the model uncertainty.