Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Molekular Connectivity Indizes als strukturchemische Stoffparameter ökotoxikologischer Relevanz

The molecular connectivity index developed by Randic as a numerical expression characterizes the position and bond of atoms in the molecular structure. Since significant correlations between the molar refraction as well as electron polarizability and ecotoxicologically relevant parameters of substances were determined in the preceding investigations, such connections are investigated also for this index and sorption coefficients, bioconcentration factors and toxicity data. By the example of 56 differentiated organic substances, significant regression relations are demonstrated between bioconcentration factors, sorption coefficients and toxicity data as well as the valency molecular connectivity indices. By these regressions it is possible to determine essential distribution and action parameters of chemical substances from the structure for assesing an ecotoxicological risk. The possibilities resulting from this for predicting ecotoxicologically relevant parameters of substances are discussed.     

Exploring Saturation of Themes and Spatial Locations in Qualitative Public Participation Geographic Information Systems Research

Use of public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) studies that collect local knowledge in a spatial format is increasing as a tool in natural resources management. Qualitative PPGIS studies have been conducted as individual interviews, as workshops, and in focus groups. As the number of qualitative PPGIS studies increases, so does the need to understand their quality. Saturation, the point when the researcher determines that the collection of additional data will provide minimal new information as it relates to a particular issue, directly reflects on the validity of the study. While the concept of saturation is well established, it is still inconsistently assessed and reported. Furthermore, how saturation applies to qualitatively collected spatial data has not been addressed. A method is presented to assess spatial saturation of qualitative PPGIS data from 19 focus groups that were conducted to investigate important places for recreation, livelihoods, and the environment in the Florida Panhandle.     

Crustal structure across the Grand Banks–Newfoundland Basin Continental Margin – II. Results from a seismic reflection profile

New multichannel seismic reflection data were collected over a 565 km transect covering the non-volcanic rifted margin of the central eastern Grand Banks and the Newfoundland Basin in the northwestern Atlantic. Three major crustal zones are interpreted from west to east over the seaward 350 km of the profile: (1) continental crust; (2) transitional basement and (3) oceanic crust. Continental crust thins over a wide zone (∼160 km) by forming a large rift basin (Carson Basin) and seaward fault block, together with a series of smaller fault blocks eastwards beneath the Salar and Newfoundland basins. Analysis of selected previous reflection profiles (Lithoprobe 85-4, 85-2 and Conrad NB-1) indicates that prominent landward-dipping reflections observed under the continental slope are a regional phenomenon. They define the landward edge of a deep serpentinized mantle layer, which underlies both extended continental crust and transitional basement. The 80-km-wide transitional basement is defined landwards by a basement high that may consist of serpentinized peridotite and seawards by a pair of basement highs of unknown crustal origin. Flat and unreflective transitional basement most likely is exhumed, serpentinized mantle, although our results do not exclude the possibility of anomalously thinned oceanic crust. A Moho reflection below interpreted oceanic crust is first observed landwards of magnetic anomaly M4, 230 km from the shelf break. Extrapolation of ages from chron M0 to the edge of interpreted oceanic crust suggests that the onset of seafloor spreading was ∼138 Ma (Valanginian) in the south (southern Newfoundland Basin) to ∼125 Ma (Barremian–Aptian boundary) in the north (Flemish Cap), comparable to those proposed for the conjugate margins.     

E (B-V) determination from an UV-visual two-colour diagram: O and B stars in the catalogue of stellar ultraviolet fluxes

We present here, for the O and B type stars in the Catalogue of Stellar Ultraviolet Fluxes, an approach which does not require a precise knowledge of spectral type and luminosity class for derivingE(B-V) colour excesses. The method is based on the use of an UV-visual two-colour diagram; galactic variations in the interstellar extinction law are analyzed and fully taken into account. Our results have been compared with those derived by using the differences between observed and intrinsic colours for stars with known spectral classification. The very good agreement in a large number of cases (94 per cent) demonstrates that our approach permits the derivation of reliable colour excess values for early type stars even if only a rough spectral classification is available.     

The formation of porphyry copper deposits

Copper is a moderately incompatible chalcophile element. Its behavior is strongly controlled by sulfides. The speciation of sulfur is controlled by oxygen fugacity. Therefore, porphyry Cu deposits are usually oxidized (with oxygen fugacities > ΔFMQ +2) (Mungall 2002; Sun et al. 2015). The problem is that while most of the magmas at convergent margins are highly oxidized, porphyry Cu deposits are very rare, suggesting that high oxygen fugacity alone is not sufficient. Partial melting of mantle peridotite even at very high oxygen fugacities forms arc magmas with initial Cu contents too low to form porphyry Cu deposits directly (Lee et al. 2012; Wilkinson 2013). Here we show that partial melting of subducted young oceanic slabs at high oxygen fugacity (>ΔFMQ +2) may form magmas with initial Cu contents up to >500 ppm, favorable for porphyry mineralization. Pre-enrichment of Cu through sulfide saturation and accumulation is not necessarily beneficial to porphyry Cu mineralization. In contrast, re-melting of porphyritic hydrothermal sulfide associated with iron oxides may have major contributions to porphyry deposits. Thick overriding continental crust reduces the “leakage” of hydrothermal fluids, thereby promoting porphyry mineralization. Nevertheless, it is also more difficult for ore forming fluids to penetrate the thick continental crust to reach the depths of 2–4 km where porphyry deposits form.     

On the period of the periodic orbits of the restricted three body problem

We will show that the period T of a closed orbit of the planar circular restricted three body problem (viewed on rotating coordinates) depends on the region it encloses. Roughly speaking, we show that, \(2 T=k\pi +\int _\Omega g\) where k is an integer, \(\Omega \) is the region enclosed by the periodic orbit and \(g:{\mathbb {R}}^2\rightarrow {\mathbb {R}}\) is a function that only depends on the constant C known as the Jacobian constant; it does not depend on \(\Omega \). This theorem has a Keplerian flavor in the sense that it relates the period with the space “swept” by the orbit. As an application we prove that there is a neighborhood around \(L_4\) such that every periodic solution contained in this neighborhood must move clockwise. The same result holds true for \(L_5\).     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

Small-scale heterogeneities below the Gräfenberg array, Germany from seismic wavefield fluctuations of Hindu Kush events

Small-scale elastic heterogeneities (<5  km) are found in the upper lithosphere underneath the Gräfenberg array, southeast Germany. The results are based on the analysis of broadband recordings of 17 intermediate-depth (201–272  km) events from the Hindu Kush region. The wavefront of the first P arrival and the following 40  s coda are separated into coherent and incoherent (scattered) parts in the frequency range from 0.05 to 5  Hz. The frequency-dependent intensities of the mean and fluctuation wavefields are used to describe the scattering characteristics of the lithosphere underneath the receivers. It is possible to discriminate a weak-fluctuation regime of the wavefield in the frequency range below approximately 1.5–2.5  Hz and a strong-fluctuation regime starting at 2.0–2.5  Hz and continuing to higher frequencies. In order to explain the observed wavefield fluctuations, an approach with seismic scattering at random media-type structures is proposed. The preferred model contains heterogeneities with 3–7 per cent perturbations in seismic velocity and correlation lengths of 0.6–4.8  km in the crust. This is compatible with models from active seismic experiments. Scattering in the lithospheric mantle is not required, but cannot be excluded at weak velocity contrasts (<3 per cent).