Using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for finding the best rainfall-runoff model in mountainous watersheds(Case study: the Navrood watershed in Iran)

In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.     

Statistical analysis of surface urban heat island intensity variations: A case study of Babol city,Iran

The urban heat island is considered as one of the most important climate change phenomena in urban areas, which can result in remarkable negative effects on flora, concentration of pollutants, air quality, energy and water consumption, human health, ecological and economic impacts, and even on global warming. The variation analysis of the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) is important for understanding the effect of urbanization and urban planning. The objective of this study was to present a new strategy based on the Shannon’s entropy and Pearson chi-square statistic to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the SUHII. In this study, Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI and TIRS images, MODIS products, meteorological data, topographic and population maps of the Babol city, Iran, from 1985 to 2017, and air temperature data recorded by ground recorder devices in 2017 were used. First, Single-Channel algorithm was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST), and the maximum likelihood classifier was employed to classify Landsat images. Then, based on LST maps, surface urban heat island ratio index was employed to calculate the SUHII. Further, several statistical methods, such as the degree-of-freedom, degree-of-sprawl and degree-of-goodness, were used to analyse the SUHII variation along different geographic directions and in various time periods. Finally, correlation between various parameters such as air temperature, SUHII, population variation and degree-of-goodness index values were investigated. The results indicated that the SUHII value increased by 24% in Babol over different time periods. The correlation coefficient yielded 0.82 between the values of the difference between the mean air temperature of the urban and suburbs and the SUHII values for the geographic directions. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the population variation and the degree-of-goodness index values reached 0.8. The results suggested that the SUHII variation of Babol city had a high degree-of-freedom, high degree-of-sprawl and negative degree-of-goodness.     

Formulation of the Caspian Sea’s legal regime using a joint zone approach

The legal regime of the Caspian Sea has been determined under Treaties 1921 and 1940 by and between Iran and former Soviet Union. In fact, we are neither to explain it nor to determine. As understood from the provisions therein, the exploitation and use of the Caspian Sea by both countries are based on the Condominium. However, there is a 10-nautical mile strip as exclusive fishing areas which have been allocated to the states under the 1940 treaty. It means that Soviet Union and Iran may benefit the marine livings resources out of that strip on an equal manner. This right also includes the seabed and underlying bed. So, the legal regime of this sea may be based on a 10-nautical mile exclusive region for all five states and the remaining part as common and joint area under an agreement until an explaining and supervising organization is established to exploit and supervise over living and non-livings resources.     

Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers

Abstract

The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models.

Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189.     

Oxygen and bulk element abundances in Luna 20 fines

Abundances of O, Si, Al and Mn have been determined in Luna 20 fines sample 22001,9 by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The abundances of O, Si and Al are among the highest we have observed in lunar samples and reflect a highlands origin for much of this regolith sample. The Luna 20 abundances reported here most closely resemble those we have determined in four samples of two Apollo 16 fines, rock 14310, and a clast from breccia 15459. The Luna 20 $\text{O}\text{Si}$ ratio of 1.96 ± 0.05 is similar to that in most other lunar samples, but the $\text{Al}\text{Si}$ ratio of 0.532 ± 0.024 is exceeded only by our data on the Apollo 16 fines. This $\text{Al}\text{Si}$ ratio is in agreement with the value of 0.55 ± 0.06 determined by the remote X-ray fluorescence experiment for the highlands between Mare Crisium and Mare Smythii which lie near the Luna 20 site (Adleret al., 1972).     

The application of geochemical pattern recognition to regional prospecting: A case study of the Sanandaj–Sirjan metallogenic zone,Iran

In regional exploration programs, the distribution of elements in known mineral deposits can be used as a guide for the classification of deposits, search for new prospects and modeling ore deposit patterns. The Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone (SSZ) is a major metallogenic zone in Iran, containing lead and zinc, iron, gold, copper deposits. In the central part of the SSZ, lead and zinc mineralization is widespread and hitherto exploration has been based on geological criteria. In this study, we used clustering techniques applied to element distribution for classification lead and zinc deposits in the central part of the SSZ. The hierarchical clustering technique was used to characterize the elemental pattern. Elements associated with lead and zinc deposits were separated into four clusters, encompassing both ore elements and their host rock-forming elements. It is shown that lead and zinc deposits in the central SSZ belong to two genetic groups: a MVT type hosted by limestone and dolomites and a SEDEX type hosted by shale, volcanic rocks and sandstone. The results of elemental clustering were used for pattern recognition by the K-means method and the respective deposits were classified into four distinct categories. K-means clustering also reveals that the elemental associations and spatial distribution of the lead and zinc deposits exhibit zoning in the central part of the SSZ. The ratios of ore-forming elements (Sb, Cd, and Zn) vs. (Pb and Ag) show zoning along an E–W trend, while host rock-forming elements (Mn, Ca, and Mg) vs. (Ba and Sr) show a zoning along a SE–NW trend. Large and medium deposits occur mainly in the center of the studied area, which justify further exploration around occurrences and abandoned mines in this area. The application of a pattern recognition method based on geochemical data from known mineralization in the central SSZ, and the classification derived from it, uncover elemental zoning, identify key elemental associations for further geochemical exploration and the potential to discover possible target areas for large to medium size ore deposits. This methodology can be applied in a similar way to search for new ore deposits in a wide range of known metallogenic zones.     

Effects of rainfall patterns on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion

Rainfall-induced erosion involves the detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact and their transport by the combined action of the shallow surface runoff and raindrop impact.Although temporal variation in rainfall intensity(pattern)during natural rainstorms is a common phenomenon,the available information is inadequate to understand its effects on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion processes.To address this issue,four simulated rainfall patterns(constant,increasing,decreasing,and increasing-decreasing)with the same total kinetic energy were designed.Two soil types(sandy and sandy loam)were subjected to simulated rainfall using 15 cm×30 cm long detachment trays under infiltration conditions.For each simulation,runoff and sediment concentration were sampled at regular intervals.No obvious difference was observed in runoff across the two soil types,but there were significant differences in soil losses among the different rainfall patterns and stages.For varying-intensity rainfall patterns,the dominant sediment transport mechanism was not only influenced by raindrop detachment but also was affected by raindrop-induced shallow flow transport.Moreover,the efficiency of equations that predict the interrill erosion rate increased when the integrated raindrop impact and surface runoff rate were applied.Although the processes of interrill erosion are complex,the findings in this study may provide useful insight for developing models that predict the effects of rainfall pattern on runoff and erosion.     

Axisymmetric transient waves in transversely isotropic half-space

A transversely isotropic material in the sense of Green is considered. Using a series of potential functions proposed in [Eskandari-Ghadi M. A complete solution of the wave equations for transversely isotropic media. J Elasticity 2005; 81:1–19], the solutions of the transient wave equations within a half-space under surface load are obtained in the Laplace–Hankel domain for axisymmetric problems. The solutions are investigated in detail in the special case of a surface point force pulse varying with time as Heaviside function. Using Cagniard–De Hoop method, the inverse Laplace transform and inverse Hankel transform of the solutions are then obtained in the form of integrals with finite limits. For validity of the analytical results, the final formulations for surface waves are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80], to show that they are exactly the same. The numerical evaluations of the integrals for some transversely isotropic materials as well as an isotropic one are obtained. The present approach is then numerically verified by comparing a particular case of displacements for the surface of an isotropic half-space subjected to a point load of Heaviside function with the solutions obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80]. In addition, the wave equations for the mentioned medium are obtained on the vertical line directly under the applied surface load. The final formulations are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation given in Graff [Wave motion in elastic solids. New York: Dover Publications Inc; 1975 [New Ed edition, November 1991]], to show that they are also exactly the same. Then equations are presented in graphical forms using an appropriate numerical evaluation.     

Pore-water pressure development in a frozen saline clay under isotropic loading and undrained shearing

Acta Geotechnica - A systematical testing program on frozen Onsøy clay under isotropic loading and undrained shearing at different temperatures...