Enhanced aerosol-cloud relationships in more stable and adiabatic clouds

Modification of cloud microphysics and cloud albedo by cloud-active aerosol is generally identified and accepted, but the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud interactions are vaguely understood and thought to include a myriad of processes that vary regionally and confound the application of simple physical models of cloud-aerosol sensitivity. This paper presents observations demonstrating that cloud top stability through its regulation of mixing and vertical development is one of the critical mechanisms that regulate cloud response to cloud-active aerosol in some cloud systems. Strong above-cloud inversions are shown to buffer marine stratocumulus from the effects of mixing with drier, warmer inversion air. This buffering reduces the variability of the cloud liquid water path (LWP) and enables the clouds to remain nearly adiabatic. While weaker above-cloud inversions in continental stratocumulus promote variability in the LWP and sub-adiabatic LWPs, stronger inversions in marine stratocumulus enables a relatively adiabatic existence that increases the relationship of cloud microphysical alteration to cloud-active aerosol. This study has important implications for Geoengineering in that it demonstrates that cloud systems overlain by strong thermal inversions are more likely to respond predictably to intentional manipulation of the in-cloud concentration of cloud-active aerosol.     

A land data assimilation system using the MODIS-derived land data and its application to numerical weather prediction in East Asia

Land Data Assimilation Systems have been developed to generate the surface initial conditions such as soil moisture and temperature for better prediction of weather and climate. We have constructed Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS) based on an uncoupled land surface modeling framework that integrates high-resolution in-situ observation, satellite data, land surface information from the WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) and the MODIS land products over the East Asia. To present better surface conditions, the KLDAS is driven by atmospheric forcing data from the in-situ rainfall gauges and satellite. In this study, we 1) briefly introduce the KLDAS, 2) evaluate the meteorological states near the surface and the surface fluxes reproduced by the KLDAS against the in-situ observation, and then 3) examine the performance of the mesoscale model initialized by the KLDAS. We have generated a 5-year, 10 km, hourly atmospheric forcing dataset for use in KLDAS operating across East Asia. The KLDAS has effectively reproduced the observed patterns of soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface fluxes. Further scrutiny reveals that the numerical simulations incorporating the KLDAS outputs show better agreement in both the simulated near-surface conditions and rainfall distribution over the Korean Peninsula, compared to those without the KLDAS.     

Effects of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in the Asian Monsoon Area

This research investigates the effect of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in response to watershed hydrology. We applied a hydrodynamic water quality model coupled to a hydrological model with a future climate scenario projected by a GCM A2 emission scenario to the Yongdam Reservoir, South Korea. In the climate change scenario, the temperature will increase by 2.1°C and 4.2°C and the precipitation will increase by 178.4?mm and 464.4?mm by the 2050 and 2090, respectively, based on 2010. The pattern changes of precipitation and temperature increase due to climate change modify the hydrology of the watershed. The hydrological model results indicate that they increase both surface runoff itself and temperature. The reservoir model simulation with the hydrological model results showed that increasing air temperature is related to higher surface water temperature. Surface water temperature is expected to increase by about 1.2°C and 2.2°C from the 2050 and 2090, respectively, based on the 2010 results. The simulation results of the effects of climate warming on the thermal structure of the Asian Monsoon Area Lake showed consistent results with those of previous studies in terms of greater temperature increases in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion, increased thermal stratification, and decreasing thermocline depths during the summer and fall. From this study, it was concluded that the hydrodynamic water quality model coupled to the hydrological model could successfully simulate the variability of the epilimnetic temperature, changed depth and magnitude of the thermocline and the changed duration of summer stratification.     

An enhanced engineering perspective of global climate systems and statistical formulation of terrestrial CO2 exchanges

This paper designs a comprehensive approach based on the engineering machine/system concept, to model, analyze, and assess the level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is an important factor in understanding changes in global climate. The focus of this article is on spatial patterns and on the correlation between levels of CO₂ fluxes and a variety of influencing factors in eco-environments. The engineering/machine concept used is a system protocol that includes the sequential activities of design, test, observe, and model. This concept is applied to explicitly include various influencing factors and interactions associated with CO₂ fluxes. To formulate effective models of a large and complex climate system, this article introduces a modeling technique that will be referred to as stochastic filtering analysis of variance (SF-ANOVA). The CO₂ flux data observed from some sites of AmeriFlux are used to illustrate and validate the analysis, prediction, and globalization capabilities of the proposed engineering approach and the SF-ANOVA technique. The SF-ANOVA modeling approach was compared to stepwise regression, ridge regression, and neural networks. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is a valid and effective tool with similar accuracy and less complexity than the other procedures.     

Impacts of ocean gateway and basin width on Tertiary tropical climate variability in a prototype model

Using a simple tropical climate model, we investigated possible impacts of changes in oceanic seaways (Panama and Tethys) and ocean basin sizes (great Pacific and narrow Atlantic) on tropical climate variability during Tertiary. Our model showed that the opening of seaways had little influence on climate variability in the tropical Pacific because the climate variability in the Pacific Ocean’s large basins were internally generated, regardless of the variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, the climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean was highly dependent on the tropical Pacific Ocean; thus, an opening seaway, particularly the Panama seaway, was crucial in generating the interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. We also found that in the Pacific Ocean, basin size strongly modified the period and amplitude of the interannual variability of both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans due to ocean wave dynamics.     

On the relationship between the Bowen ratio and the near-surface air temperature

The sensitivity of land surface energy partitioning to near-surface air temperature (T _a) is a critical issue to understand the interaction between land surface and climatic system. Thus, studies with in situ observed data compiled from various climates and ecosystems are required. The relations derived from such empirical analyses are useful for developing accurate estimation methods of energy partitioning. In this study, the effect of T _a on land surface energy partitioning is evaluated by using flux measurement data compiled from a global network of eddy covariance tower sites (FLUXNET). According to the analysis of 25 FLUXNET sites (60 site-years) data, the Bowen ratio is found to have a linear relation with the bulk surface resistance normalized by aerodynamic and climatological resistance parameters in general, of which the slope and intercept are dependent on T _a. Energy partitioning in warmer atmosphere is less sensitive to changes in land surface conditions. In addition, a negative relation is found between Bowen ratio and T _a, and this relation is stronger above less vegetated surface and under low vapor pressure deficit and low received radiative energy condition. The empirical results obtained in this study are expected to be useful in gaining better understanding of alternating surface energy partitioning under increasing T _a.     

Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer

This paper investigates the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the austral summer. For this purpose, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate and the Japanese Reanalysis-25 data for the period 1998–2008. The real-time multivariate MJO index by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004) is adopted to define the intensity and the phase of MJO. It is demonstrated that the hourly maximum rain rate over the domain tends to increase when convectively active phase of MJO approaches the Maritime Continent. In contrast, the hourly maximum rain rate tends to decrease when convectively suppressed phase of MJO resides over the region. The changes in the rain rate due to MJO differ over the ocean and the land. This difference is the greatest when the MJO is in the mature stage. Throughout the day during this stage, terrestrial rain rates show minimum values while diurnally varying oceanic rain rates record maximum values. Thus, precipitation becomes more intense in the morning over the Java Sea and is weakened in the evening over Borneo and Sumatra during the mature stage of MJO. During the decaying stage of MJO over the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle of precipitation weakens significantly over the ocean but only weakly over land. Analyses suggest that the anomalous lower level winds accompanied by MJO interact with the monsoonal flow over the Maritime Continent. Westerlies induced by MJO convection in the mature stage are superimposed on the monsoonal westerlies over the equator and increase wind speed mainly over the Java Sea due to the blocking effect of orography. Mountainous islands induce flow bifurcation, causing near-surface winds to converge mainly over the oceanic channels between two islands. As a result, heat flux release from the ocean to the atmosphere is enhanced by the increased surface wind resulting in instability as described in the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism. This may contribute to heavy rainfall over the Java Sea in the morning during the mature stage. On the other hand, convergence and vertical velocity over the islands, which play important roles in inducing nighttime rainfall, tend to be weak in the evening during the mature stage of MJO. Strong westerlies arising from MJO and the seasonal flow during the mature stage tend to interrupt convergence over islands. This interruption of convergence by MJO gives rise to decreased rain rates over the land regions.     

Changma onset definition in Korea using the available water resources index and its relation to the Antarctic oscillation

This study defines the Changma onset using the available water resources index (AWRI) for 25?years (1985–2009) and verifies the validity of this definition. The three conditions for defining the Changma onset are established as follows: (i) The first day exceeding the June AWRI (threshold) averaged over the 25-year period. (ii) The continuation of the value over the threshold for at least 1?week after the onset. (iii) After the continuation of more than 1?week, the non-continuation of the value under the threshold for at least 1?week. The 25-year average Changma onset date is 24 June with a standard deviation of 9?days. The defined Changma onset is verified through the analysis on the relationship with the Antarctic oscillation (AAO). AAO in June shows a high correlation with not only the Changma onset but also the June precipitation (AWRI) in Korea. These three variables are influenced by Mascarene and Australian (positive AAO pattern) highs from in the preceding March. When these two pressure systems develop, the cold cross-equatorial flow in the direction from the region around Australia to the equator is intensified, which in turn, forces a western North Pacific high (WNPH) to develop northward; this eventually drives the rain belt north. As a result, the Changma begins early in the positive AAO phase, and the June precipitation increases in Korea. In addition, a WNPH that develops more northward increases the landfalling frequency of tropical cyclones in Korea, which plays an important role in increasing the June precipitation.     

Reduction of the thermocline feedback associated with mean SST bias in ENSO simulation

Associated with the double Inter-tropical convergence zone problem, a dipole SST bias pattern (cold in the equatorial central Pacific and warm in the southeast tropical Pacific) remains a common problem inherent in many contemporary coupled models. Based on a newly-developed coupled model, we performed a control run and two sensitivity runs, one is a coupled run with annual mean SST correction and the other is an ocean forced run. By comparison of these three runs, we demonstrated that a serious consequence of this SST bias is to severely suppress the thermocline feedback in a realistic simulation of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. Firstly, the excessive cold tongue extension pushes the anomalous convection far westward from the equatorial central Pacific, prominently diminishing the convection-low level wind feedback and thus the air-sea coupling strength. Secondly, the equatorial surface wind anomaly exhibits a relatively uniform meridional structure with weak gradient, contributing to a weakened wind-thermocline feedback. Thirdly, the equatorial cold SST bias induces a weakened upper-ocean stratification and thus yields the underestimation of the thermocline-subsurface temperature feedback. Finally, the dipole SST bias underestimates the mean upwelling through (a) undermining equatorial mean easterly wind stress, and (b) enhancing convective mixing and thus reducing the upper ocean stratification, which weakens vertical shear of meridional currents and near-surface Ekman-divergence.     

Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969–2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three in the South Indian Ocean, three in the Australian Region, and one in the South Pacific Ocean. Large-scale environmental variables related to TC genesis in each cluster are explored, including sea surface temperature, low-level relative vorticity, deep-layer vertical wind shear, outgoing longwave radiation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Composite maps, constructed 2 days prior to genesis, show some of these to be significant precursors to TC formation—most prominently, westerly wind anomalies equatorward of the main development regions. Clusters are also evaluated with respect to their genesis location, seasonality, mean peak intensity, track duration, landfall location, and intensity at landfall. ENSO is found to play a significant role in modulating annual frequency and mean genesis location in three of the seven clusters (two in the South Indian Ocean and one in the Pacific). The ENSO-modulating effect on genesis frequency is caused primarily by changes in low-level zonal flow between the equator and 10°S, and associated relative vorticity changes in the main development regions. ENSO also has a significant effect on mean genesis location in three clusters, with TCs forming further equatorward (poleward) during El Niño (La Niña) in addition to large shifts in mean longitude. The MJO has a strong influence on TC genesis in all clusters, though the amount modulation is found to be sensitive to the definition of the MJO.