Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and mitigation

Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.     

Structurally-controlled melt accumulation: Himalayan migmatites and related deformation — Dhauli Ganga valley, Garhwal Himalaya

In the uppermost parts of the Higher Himalayan Crystallines (HHC) of the Great Himalaya, widespread in situ partial melting of sillimanite+K-feldspar gneiss resulted in the formation of migmatite and resultant melt accumulation near the South Tibetan Detachment System (STDS) during various deformation events along the Dhauli Ganga valley in Garhwal. The oldest migmatite phase, designated as the Me1, parallels the main foliation S_m as the stromatite layers and concordant leucogranite bands. Younger melt phases Me2, Me3 and Me5 are recorded along small-scale ductile thrusts, extensional fabric and structureless patches, respectively. It is only the Me4 melting phase that is evidenced by large-scale melt migration along cross-cutting irregular veins. These were possible conduits for migration and accumulation of melt into larger leucogranite bodies like the Malari granite (19.0± 0.5 Ma).     

Statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions

We have investigated the application of the F-ratio test, a standard statistical technique, to the results of relative plate motion inversions. The method tests whether the improvement in fit of the model to the data resulting from the addition of another plate to the model is greater than that expected purely by chance. This approach appears to be useful in determining whether additional plate boundaries are justified. We confirm previous results favoring separate North American and South American plates with a boundary located between 30°N and the equator. Using Chase's global relative motion data, we show that in addition to separate West African and Somalian plates, separate West Indian and Australian plates, with a best-fitting boundary between 70°E and 90°E, can be resolved. These results are generally consistent with the observation that the Indian plate's internal deformation extends somewhat westward of the Ninetyeast Ridge. The relative motion pole is similar to Minster and Jordan's and predicts the NW-SE compression observed in earthquake mechanisms near the Ninetyeast Ridge.     

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.     

High-pressure–low-temperature metamorphism of metasedimentary rocks, southern Menderes Massif, western Turkey

Kilometer-scale lenses of quartz-rich metasedimentary rocks crop out in a discontinuous belt along the southern margin of the Menderes Massif, Turkey, and preserve evidence for high-pressure–low-temperature (HP–LT) metamorphism related to subduction of a continental margin during Alpine orogeny. Kyanite schist, quartzite, and quartz veins contain kyanite + phengite + Mg-chlorite, and the veins also contain magnesiocarpholite. A deformed carbonate metaconglomerate juxtaposed with the quartzite-dominated unit does not contain HP index minerals, and likely represents the tectonized boundary of the siliceous rocks with adjacent marble. The HP–LT rocks (10–12 kbar, 470–570 °C) record different pressure conditions than the adjacent, apparently lower pressure Menderes metasedimentary sequence. Despite this difference there is disagreement as to whether these HP–LT rocks are part of the Menderes sequence or are related to the tectonically overlying Cycladic blueschist unit. If the former, the entire southern Menderes Massif experienced HP–LT metamorphism but the evidence has been obliterated from most rocks; if the latter, rocks recording different metamorphic-kinematic conditions experienced different tectonic histories and were tectonically juxtaposed during thrusting. Based on observations and data in this study, the second model better accounts for the differences in P–T-deformation histories of the southern Menderes Massif rocks, and suggests that the HP–LT rocks are not part of the Menderes cover sequence.     

Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages

Hurricanes can severely damage the electric power system, and therefore, predicting the potential impact of an approaching hurricane is of importance for facilitating planning and storm-response activities. A data mining approach, classification and regression trees (CART), was employed to evaluate whether the inclusion of soil and topographic variables improved the predictive accuracy of the power outage models. A total of 37 soil variables and 20 topographic variables were evaluated in addition to hurricane, power system, and environmental variables. Hurricane variables, specifically the maximum wind gust and duration of strong winds, were the most important variables for predicting power outages in all models. Although the inclusion of soil and topographic variables did not significantly improve the overall accuracy of outage predictions, soil type and soil texture are useful predictors of hurricane-related power outages. Both of these variables provide information about the soil stability which, in turn, influences the likelihood of poles remaining upright and trees being uprooted. CART was also used to evaluate whether environmental variables can be used instead of power system variables. Our results demonstrated that certain land cover variables (e.g., LC21, LC22, and LC23) are reasonable proxies for the power system and can be used in a CART model, with only a minor decrease in predictive accuracy, when detailed information about the power system is not available. Therefore, CART-based power outage models can be developed in regions where detailed information on the power system is not available.     

Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

Accurate estimates of the duration of power outages caused by hurricanes prior to landfall are valuable for utility companies and government agencies that wish to plan and optimize their restoration efforts. Accurate pre-storm estimates are also important information for customers and operators of other infrastructures systems, who rely heavily on electricity. Traditionally, utilities make restoration plans based on managerial judgment and experience. However, skillful outage forecast models are conducive to improved decision-making practices by utilities and can greatly enhance storm preparation and restoration management procedures of power companies and emergency managers. This paper presents a novel statistical approach for estimating power outage durations that is 87 % more accurate than existing models in the literature. The power outage duration models are developed and carefully validated for outages caused by Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Ivan in a central Gulf Coast state. This paper identifies the key variables in predicting hurricane-induced outage durations and their degree of influence on predicting outage restoration for the utility company service area used as our case study.     

Oxygen isotope fractionation during synthesis of CaMg-carbonate and implications for sedimentary dolomite formation

Hydrous CaMg-carbonate was synthesized at temperatures of 40°, 60° and 80°C in the laboratory. This material has very similar mineralogical characteristics to natural disordered dolomite from the Coorong region in South Australia. Besides the dolomite variable amounts of amorphous carbonate are present in all samples. The oxygen isotope compositions of synthesized bulk carbonate samples (e.g., amorphous carbonate plus dolomite) plot significantly lower than the Northrop and Clayton (1966) dolomite-water equilibrium. Fractionated degassing of the samples, however, revealed relatively low oxygen isotope values for fast-reacting (using 100% H₃PO₄) amorphous carbonate. In contrast, slow-reacting dolomite has more positive oxygen isotope values, and calculated carbonate-water oxygen isotope fractionation values are close to strongest known dolomite-water oxygen isotope fractionation published earlier on. Variations of reaction/stabilization temperatures during synthesis gave evidence for dolomite formation from hypersaline solutions by a dissolution/reprecipitation process. It is likely that amorphous carbonate has been a problem in defining the dolomite-water fractionation in the past. Moreover, dolomite-associated amorphous carbonate contents probably led to incorrect speculations about lower oxygen isotope fractionation in a so-called protodolomite-water system.     

西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带--深部地球物理结构给出的启示

通过跨越缝合带的综合地球物理和地质调查研究,查明了地质上推测的“班公湖-怒江缝合带”的深部结构和构造,提出了下述观点现有资料尚不足以证明,“班公湖-怒江缝合带”是严格意义上的缝合带,而趋向表明是一个老的弧后拉张区,在后来的印度大陆与拉萨地块碰撞挤压过程中,先是沉积了巨厚的第三纪地层,仅在20Ma(?)以来才转变成挤压体制,形成多条逆冲断裂;纳木错-申扎逆冲的蛇绿岩片带代表着侏罗纪洋的主要缝合带位置,在其闭合过程中洋壳与陆壳一起向北发生俯冲,并形成班戈岩带所代表的岩浆弧,在岩浆弧后出现了拉张区;下地壳向北挤压增厚,物理性质不同的上、下地壳之间相互运动而形成了一条缓倾的剪切片理化带,南北长达300km,命名为主羌塘逆冲断裂带(MQT);并使班戈岩片整体向南逆推上去,致使地壳分层增厚;在拉张期伦坡拉小地块向下运动,20Ma以后转变成压缩体制后又开始向上逆推,再加上后期的剥蚀,致使班戈深成岩体出露于地表;唐古拉山、各拉丹冬等年轻的火山岩浆带与地表显示的构造活动无直接关系,推测应是地壳深层作用引起的构造岩浆活动的显示。     

Tectonics of the Nazca-Antarctic plate boundary

We have constructed a new bathymetric chart of part of the Chile transform system, based mainly on an R/V “Endeavor” survey from 100°W to its intersection with the East Ridge of the Juan Fernandez microplate at 34°30′S, 109°15′W. A generally continuous lineated trend can be followed through the entire region, with the transform valley being relatively narrow and well-defined from 109°W to approximately 104°30′W. The fracture zone then widens to the east, with at least two probable en echelon offsets to the south at 104° and 102°W. Six new strike-slip mechanisms along the Chile Transform and one normal fault mechanism near the northern end of the Chile Rise, inverted together with other plate motion data from the eastern portion of the boundary, produce a new best fit Euler pole for the Nazca-Antarctic plate pair, providing tighter constraints on the relative plate motions.