Statistical framework for scale-up of dispersivity in multi-scale heterogeneous media

A hierarchical scale-up framework is formulated to study the scaling characteristics of reservoir attributes and input dispersivities at the transport modeling scale, where heterogeneity distribution exhibits both non-stationarity (trend) and sub-scale variability. The proposed method is flexible to handle heterogeneities occurring at multiple scales, without any explicit assumption regarding the multivariate distribution of the heterogeneity. This paper extends our previous work by incorporating the effects of non-stationarity into the modeling workflow. Rock property at a given location is modeled as a random variable, which is decomposed into the sum of a trend (available on the same resolution of the transport modeling scale) and a residual component (defined at a much smaller scale). First, to scale up the residual component to the transport modeling scale, the corresponding volume variance is computed; by sampling numerous sets of “conditioning data” via bootstrapping and constructing multiple realizations of the residual components at the transport modeling, uncertainty due to this scale-up process is captured. Next, to compute the input dispersivity at the transport modeling scale, a flow-based technique is adopted: multiple geostatistical realizations of the same physical size as the transport modeling scale are generated to describe the spatial heterogeneity below the modeling scale. Each realization is subjected to particle-tracking simulation. Effective longitudinal and transverse dispersivities are estimated by minimizing the difference in effluent history for each realization and that of an equivalent average medium. Probability distributions of effective dispersivities are established by aggregating results from all realizations. The results demonstrate that both large-scale non-stationarity and sub-scale variability are both contributing to anomalous non-Fickian behavior. In comparison with our previous work, which ignored large-scale non-stationarity, the non-Fickian characteristics observed in this study is dramatically more pronounced.     

Prediction of Floor Water Inrush: The Application of GIS-Based AHP Vulnerable Index Method to Donghuantuo Coal Mine,China

Floor water inrush represents a geohazard that can pose significant threat to safe operations for instance in coal mines in China and elsewhere. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors, and the processes are often not amenable to mathematical expressions. To evaluate the water inrush risk, the paper proposes the vulnerability index approach by coupling the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS). The detailed procedures of using this innovative approach are shown in a case study in China (Donghuantuo Coal Mine). The powerful spatial data analysis functions of GIS was used to establish the thematic layer of each of the six factors that control the water inrush, and the contribution weights of each factor was determined with the AHP method. The established AHP evaluation model was used to determine the threshold value for each risk level with a histogram of the water inrush vulnerability index. As a result, the mine area was divided into five regions with different vulnerability levels which served as general guidelines for the mine operations. The prediction results were further corroborated with the actual mining data, and the evaluation result is satisfactory.     

Sedimentology and facies analysis of Miocene mixed siliciclastic–carbonate deposits of the Dam Formation in Al Lidam area,eastern Saudi Arabia

The Burdigalian mixed siliciclastic–carbonate deposits of the Dam Formation are well-exposed in Al Lidam area, in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. They represent a shallow part of the Arabian plate continental margin. The Dam Formation is correlatable to the Miocene reservoirs in both Iran and Iraq. Therefore, studying the Dam Formation lithologic heterogeneity in a small distance with high resolution could help in further work related to pattern prediction of the Miocene reservoir properties. High-resolution sedimentological investigation was carried out through six outcrops. The facies parameters (lithology, sedimentary structures, main fossils, paleocurrent patterns and geometries of the sedimentary bodies) were described. The results revealed 15 lithofacies that have been further grouped into 7 lithofacies associations 5 of which are carbonates and include (1) interbedded dolostone and evaporates, (2) microbialite buildup, (3) ooid-dominated grainstones, (4) burrowed skeletal peloidal wackestone–packstone and (5) mollusc-dominated wackestone–packstone. The remaining two associations are of siliciclastics and include (6) intertidal siliciclastics and (7) wave-dominated siliciclastics. These lithofacies were interpreted to reflect deposition in a mixed siliciclastic–carbonate ramp system that includes subtidal, shoreface, intertidal, foreshore, supratidal and estuarine deposits in a shallowing-upward succession. Each one of these lithofacies association has distinct geometry and architecture pattern. Oolites and heterozoan lithofacies occur as sheets and show great continuity along the strike direction. Oolites pass laterally in the dip direction into more skeletal- and peloid-dominated zones, whereas heterozoan lithofacies stay continuous in the dip directions and change from siliciclastic to carbonate heterozones. In contrast, microbialite lithofacies lack continuous beds and occur as localised bioherms and biostroms. Channelised lithofacies are restricted laterally into isolated channel bodies and vertically in the contact boundary between siliciclastic and carbonate lithofacies, whereas the interbedded dolostone and evaporite lithofacies form distinct, relatively thick continuous layers. With continuous exposures in both strike (1.2 km) and dip (0.15 km) directions, the outcrops in the Al Lidam area provide unique opportunity to study the heterogeneity among lithofacies of the mixed siliciclastic–carbonate system of the Dam Formation. Such study may provide insights to predict occurrence and distribution of lithofacies bodies in their equivalent reservoirs which are important for reservoir characterisation.     

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.     

A direction-dependent shear strength criterion for rock joints with two new roughness parameters

The surface morphology of a rock joint is closely related to its mechanical properties. To reasonably characterize a rock surface, two new roughness parameters were proposed in this paper. One is related to the average slope angle of asperities that contribute to the shear strength, and the other reflects the frictional behavior of asperities that is defined as the maximum possible contact area in the shear direction. Taking the standard joint roughness coefficient profiles as example, these two roughness parameters can be applied to describe the directional characteristics of shear strength. Based on their relationships with initial dilation angles, the proposed roughness parameters were incorporated into a peak shear strength criterion. It is shown that the predicted peak shear strength is consistent with experimental data, and there is a power–law relationship. The application range of new roughness parameters was determined, which may facilitate a measurement process.     

Provenance,weathering, and paleoenvironment of the Upper Cretaceous Duwi black shales,Aswan Governorate,Egypt

The mineralogy and geochemistry of the Upper Cretaceous Duwi black shales of Nile Valley district, Aswan Governorate, Egypt, have been investigated to identify the source rock characteristics, paleoweathering, and paleoenvironment of the source area. The Duwi Formation consists mainly of phosphorite and black shales and is subdivided into three members. The lower and upper members composed mainly of phosphorite beds intercalated with thin lenses of gray shales, while the middle member is mainly composed of gray shale, cracked, and filled with gypsum. Mineralogically, the Duwi black shales consist mainly of smectite and kaolinite. The non-clay minerals are dominated by quartz, calcite, phosphate, dolomite, feldspar, with little gypsum, anhydrite, iron oxides, and pyrite. Based on the CIA, PIA, and CIW values (average?=?84, 94, 95, respectively), it can be concluded that the litho-components of the studied shales were subjected to intense chemical weathering and reflect warm/humid climatic conditions in the depositional basin. The provenance discrimination diagram indicates that the nature of the source rocks probably was mainly intermediate and mafic igneous sources with subordinate recycled sedimentary rocks (Nubia Formation). Geochemical characteristics indicate that the Duwi black shales in Nile Valley district were deposited under anoxic reducing marine environments.     

Discussion on the complete-form vorticity equation and slantwise vorticity development

The complete form of the vertical vorticity tendency equation (the complete-form vorticity equation) is derived from the Ertel potential vorticity equation to contain thermodynamic factors. In this study, a new complete-form vorticity equation, which has the same form as the original complete-form vorticity equation, is deduced from the absolute vorticity vector equation combined with the continuity equation and the expression of three-dimensional (3D) entropy gradient. By comparing the complete-form vorticity equation with the classical vertical vorticity equation, it is found that regardless of whether or not the isentropic surface is tilting, the two vorticity equations are in essence the same. The “baroclinic term” of the complete-form vorticity equation is exactly equal to the solenoidal term of the classical one, and there is a significant amount of cancellation between the two baroclinic items (the “slantwise term” and the horizontal vorticity change term) in the complete-form vorticity equation. In operational weather analysis, the tilt of the isentropic surface can be diagnosed according to the density of the isotherm on the upper-level isobaric map. For synoptic-scale motion, the vertical vorticity produced by the tilt of the isentropic surface is due to the contribution of atmospheric baroclinicity, which is measured by the solenoid. The 3D solenoid is parallel to the isentropic surface, so the more tilted the isentropic surface, the bigger the projection of the 3D solenoid in the vertical direction. The baroclinic contribution can be interpreted based on the PV thinking theory, but the relationship between the vorticity field and the potential vorticity field is not immediate.     

Diagnostic analysis of the evolution mechanism for a vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008

Based on the final analyses data (FNL) of the Global Forecasting System of the NCEP and the obser- vational radiosonde data, the evolution mechanism of an eastward-moving low-level vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008 was analyzed. The results show that the formation of the vortex was related to the convergence between the northwesterly over the central Tibetan Plateau from the westerly zone and the southerly from the Bay of Bengal at 500 hPa, and also to the divergence associated with the entrance re- gion of the upper westerly jet at 200 hPa. Their dynamic effects were favorable for ascending motion and forming the vortex over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, the effect of the atmospheric heat source (Q1) is discussed based on a transformed potential vorticity (PV) tendency equation. By calculating the PV budgets, we showed that Q1 had a great inffuence on the intensity and moving direction of the vortex. In the developing stage of the vortex, the heating of the vertically integrated Q1 was centered to the east of the vortex center at 500 hPa, increasing PV tendency to the east of the vortex. As a result, the vortex strengthened and moved eastward through the vertically uneven distribution of Q1. In the decaying stage, the horizontally uneven heating of Q1 at 500 hPa weakened the vortex through causing the vortex tubes around the vortex to slant and redistributing the vertical vorticity field.     

The western Mediterranean climate: how will it respond to global warming?

The paper discusses the newly produced temperature and precipitation series from instrumental observations in the Western Mediterranean (WM) area, dating back to 1654. The two series had a continuous swing and unstable coupling passing from correlation to anti-correlation. Only after 1950 are they permanently anti-correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. It is not clear how long this coupling will persist. The analysis of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the WM temperature anomalies and their trends shows a certain variability from 1850 to 1950; later a strong coupling between NH and WM. Results suggest that the WM climate is approaching a turning point that might locally oppose the adverse effects of Global Warming.     

Modeling lateral circulation and its influence on the along-channel flow in a branched estuary

A numerical modeling study of the influence of the lateral flow on the estuarine exchange flow was conducted in the north passage of the Changjiang estuary. The lateral flows show substantial variabilities within a flood-ebb tidal cycle. The strong lateral flow occurring during flood tide is caused primarily by the unique cross-shoal flow that induces a strong northward (looking upstream) barotropic force near the surface and advects saltier water toward the northern part of the channel, resulting in a southward baroclinic force caused by the lateral density gradient. Thus, a two-layer structure of lateral flows is produced during the flood tide. The lateral flows are vigorous near the flood slack and the magnitude can exceed that of the along-channel tidal flow during that period. The strong vertical shear of the lateral flows and the salinity gradient in lateral direction generate lateral tidal straining, which are out of phase with the along-channel tidal straining. Consequently, stratification is enhanced at the early stage of the ebb tide. In contrast, strong along-channel straining is apparent during the late ebb tide. The vertical mixing disrupts the vertical density gradient, thus suppressing stratification. The impact of lateral straining on stratification during spring tide is more pronounced than that of along-channel straining during late flood and early ebb tides. The momentum balance along the estuary suggests that lateral flow can augment the residual exchange flow. The advection of lateral flows brings low-energy water from the shoal to the deep channel during the flood tide, whereas the energetic water is moved to the shoal via lateral advection during the ebb tide. The impact of lateral flow on estuarine circulation of this multiple-channel estuary is different from single-channel estuary. A model simulation by blocking the cross-shoal flow shows that the magnitudes of lateral flows and tidal straining are reduced. Moreover, the reduced lateral tidal straining results in a decrease in vertical stratification from the late flood to early ebb tides during the spring tide. By contrast, the along-channel tidal straining becomes dominant. The model results illustrate the important dynamic linkage between lateral flows and estuarine dynamics in the Changjiang estuary.