Evaluation of LPM permafrost distribution in NE Asia reconstructed and downscaled from GCM simulations

A high‐resolution map of potential frozen ground distribution in NE Asia (90–150°E, 25–60°N) at the period of the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM, c. 21 000 years ago) was dually reconstructed by means of a statistical classification using air freezing and thawing indices and a topographical downscaling using a digital relief model (ETOPO1). Background LPM climate data were derived from global climate model simulations of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase II (PMIP2). The reconstructed LPM map shows the southward shift of the southern limit of climate‐driven permafrost by 400–1500 km, with the greatest advance in the western sector (90–110°E), encompassing an area from central Siberia to most of the Altai area. The advance of environmentally conditional permafrost and seasonally frozen ground was greatest in the eastern sector (110–150°E), with an average shift of about 450 km. The descent of the lower limit of LPM alpine permafrost was in the range of 400–800 m. A comparison of the reconstructed map with published literature shows that this method, simplistically constructed yet effectively recognizing seasonality, continentality and topography, captures local features better than more elaborate methods. The sensitivity examination of a constant atmospheric lapse rate shows that altitudes of 2000–5000 m a.s.l. were most sensitive, though with only a limited effect on overall LPM distribution.     

Understanding the links between climate feedbacks,variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model

Climate Dynamics - A simple, two-layer energy balance model (EBM) is used to investigate climate variability in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and examine possible...     

Migration of Trans-Neptunian Objects to the Terrestrial Planets

The orbital evolution of more than 22000 Jupiter-crossing objects under thegravitational influence of planets was investigated. We found that the meancollision probabilities of Jupiter-crossing objects (from initial orbits close tothe orbit of a comet) with the terrestrial planets can differ by more than twoorders of magnitude for different comets. For initial orbital elements close tothose of some comets (e.g., 2P and 10P), about 0.1% of objects got Earth-crossingorbits with semi-major axes a < 2 AU and moved in such orbits for more than a Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myrs).Results of our runs testify in favor of at least one of these conclusions: (1) the portionof 1-km former trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) among near-Earth objects (NEOs)can exceed several tens of percent, (2) the number of TNOs migrating inside the solarsystem could be smaller by a factor of several than it was earlier considered, (3) mostof 1-km former TNOs that had got NEO orbits disintegrated into mini-comets and dustduring a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes if these lifetimes are not small.     

The Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM) map of the Northern Hemisphere: permafrost extent and mean annual air temperatures, 25–17 ka BP

This paper accompanies a map that shows the extent of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere between 25 and 17 thousand years ago. The map is based upon existing archival data, common throughout the Northern Hemisphere, that include ice‐wedge pseudomorphs, sand wedges and large cryoturbations. Where possible, a distinction is made between areas with continuous permafrost and areas where permafrost is either spatially discontinuous or sporadic. The associated mean annual palaeo‐temperatures that are inferred on the basis of present‐day analogues increase understanding of the possible changes in permafrost extent that might accompany current global warming trends. Areas with relict permafrost and areas that were formerly exposed due to lower sea level (submarine permafrost) are also mapped. Mapping is mostly limited to lowland regions (areas approximately <1000 m a.s.l.). Striking features that appear from the map are (i) the narrow permafrost zone in North America, which contrasts with the broader LPM permafrost zone in Eurasia (that may be related to different snow thickness or vegetation cover), (ii) the zonal extent of former LPM permafrost (that may reflect sea‐ice distribution), which contrasts with the present‐day pattern of permafrost extent (especially in Eurasia) and (iii) the relatively narrow zones of LPM discontinuous permafrost (that may indicate strong temperature gradients).     

New paleomagnetic data from Late Neoproterozoic sedimentary successions in Southern Urals,Russia: implications for the Late Neoproterozoic paleogeography of the Iapetan realm

We present the results of paleomagnetic study of Ediacaran sedimentary successions from the Southern Urals. The analysis of the sedimentary rocks of the Krivaya Luka, Kurgashlya and Bakeevo Formations reveal stable mid-temperature and high-temperature remanence components. Mid-temperature components were acquired during Devonian (Bakeevo Formation) and Late Carboniferous–Early Permian remagnetization events. The high-temperature components in Kurgashlya and Bakeevo Formations are interpreted to be primary, because they are supported by a positive conglomerate test (Bakeevo Formation) and magnetostratigraphic pattern (Kurgashlya Formation). The high-temperature component in the Krivaya Luka Formation is interpreted to be a Late Ediacaran overprint. Our new paleomagnetic poles together with some previously published Ediacaran poles from Baltica and Laurentia are used herein to produce a series of paleogeographic reconstructions of the opening of the Iapetus Ocean.     

Further empirical evidence for the non-linearity of the period–luminosity relations as seen in the Large Magellanic Cloud Cepheids

Recent studies, using OGLE data for LMC Cepheids in the optical, strongly suggest that the period–luminosity (PL) relation for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) Cepheids shows a break or non-linearity at a period of 10 d. In this paper we apply statistical tests, the chi-squared test and the F -test, to the Cepheid data from the MACHO project to test for a non-linearity of the V - and R -band PL relations at 10 d, and extend these tests to the near-infrared ( JHK -band) PL relations with 2MASS data. We correct the extinction for these data by applying an extinction map towards the LMC. The statistical test we use, the F -test, is able to take account of small numbers of data points and the nature of that data on either side of the period cut at 10 d. With our data, the results we obtained imply that the VRJH -band PL relations are non-linear around a period of 10 d, while the K -band PL relation is (marginally) consistent with a single-line regression. The choice of a period of 10 d, around which this non-linearity occurs, is consistent with the results obtained when this 'break' period is estimated from the data. We show that robust parametric (including least-squares, least absolute deviation, robust regression) and non-parametric regression methods, which restrict the influence of outliers, produce similar results. Long-period Cepheids are supplemented from the literature to increase our sample size. The photometry of these long-period Cepheids is compared with our data and no trend with period is found. Our main results remain unchanged when we supplement our data set with these long-period Cepheids. By examining our data at maximum light, we also suggest arguments as to why errors in reddening are unlikely to be responsible for our results. The non-linearity of the mean V -band PL relation as seen in both of the OGLE and the MACHO data, using different extinction maps, suggests that this non-linearity is real.     

Optical observations of the X-ray transients XTE J1859 +226 and XTE J1118+480

We present some results of observations on the X-raytransients XTE J1859+226 and XTE J1118+480 by means of the 0.7-metretelescope at the Kalinenkov Astronomical Observatory of Nikolaev StateUniversity. The observations of XTE J1859+226 were obtained inNovember 1999 and April 2000. The observations of theXTE J1118+480 started in April 2000. The light curves are presented here.